Just finished a re-read of the series, first reread since beginning to engage with fan theories and such. A fan observation that I’ve seen and think is really valuable, is that when characters in asoiaf make plans and we see the details, the events usually go awry. Most of the speculation I’ve seen regarding Aegon VI has his invasion basically going according to the plan Varys lays out in the adwd epilogue. I understand this because he outlines what seems to be the obvious trajectory of events following Kevan and Pycelle’s deaths, and Varys has proven a capable manipulator so we trust him to make nudge things along in that direction further. However I would look at his claims and start a bit of a brainstorm on counterfactuals.

    1. The Lannisters and Tyrells were reconciling, and with Kevan’s death they will irreparably at odds, blaming each other, and the dornish.
    1. Binding the faith to Tommen.
    1. Aegon VI’s capture of Storm’s End will both happen, and draw the lords of the realm to him.
    1. Aegon VI being raised similarly to Aegon V will make him a good king.

  1. It seems so obvious that Cersei will blame the Tyrells, but he also covertly gives another option, could they unite and blame the dornish together? This seems like a possible alternate avenue to me, especially after the business with Myrcella, Dorne keeping their armies in reserve, the Red Viper defending Tyrion etc.

  2. Other than Baelor the Blessed, the Targs have kind of always been at odds with the faith of the seven. If Tommen becomes especially pious, it seems to me that it would take more than Kevan’s death to stop the faith from binding itself to him.

  3. Aside from the riverlands and the north, the stormlands seem like the next most depeleted / demobilized of the kingdoms, most of their armies and lords are either with Stannis in the north, or adjoined to one of the Tyrell hosts. If Stannis’ lords basically looted their own larders on the way out, holding the stormlands might mainly bring logistical challenges as the golden company needs to organize and start to administer their lands in winter, while facing the logistical might of the Tyrells.

  4. Aegon VI being a king who does right by the smallfolk is appealing to us, the readers, but in universe (with the exception of Jaehaerys I, who had dragons) these kings face a lot of pushback from the noble class and are often embattled and ineffective rulers. Not exactly a surefire recipe for an insurgent king.

  5. Not mentioned by Varys, but related: Jon Connington has greyscale. I don’t know that we have enough time left in the story for a grey plague subplot to run its course, but the revelation could doom Aegon’s cause. Perhaps Aegon himself too, if he contracts it somehow.

What do you think? Other ways the Aegon cause may not run smoothly? Other details, for or against what I’ve brought up?

  • @ThePowerOfGeekMEnglish
    5•8 months ago

    Great observations and write-up!

    The obvious one for me is the assumption that the small folk will categorically rally around a young foreigner of questionable heritage and his sell-sword army. Just because the commoners area war-weary and traumatized, it seems pretty naive for Varys and company to assume they will fall in with Faegon and Connington. And just the kind of thing to backfire spectacularly. They are more likely to really behind some firebrand home-grown revolutionary.

    • @GlemekOPEnglish
      3•8 months ago

      Yeah, I think Aegon VI will have to make some big overtures towards the faith and the well being of the smallfolk for the Sparrow’s movement to line up behind him, which would in turn push away the lords he also needs to court. If he doesn’t work to court the Sparrows, then I think they are like to be a big thorn in his side.

      Also Aegon VI’s character I think is very much still an open question at this point, just because he was raised in harsher conditions doesn’t guarantee he’ll be a selfless ruler at all. If his impulsiveness bites him he may dig in and become defensive of his own bad judgement, furthering himself down a dark path that way.

      Varys has set the stage by destabilizing the whole realm, but I think he has certainly misjudged how simple it will be to reform a stable whole afterwards.

  • Alexis_s_Rose
    4•8 months ago

    @Glemek Storm’s End is where Jaehaerys raised his banner & where the lords rallied to him.

    The most important thing in Varys’s speech to Kevan was his views on kingship which mirror exactly Davos’s own. Kingship is a duty, not a right. Davos reminded Stannis of that, which is how he ended up in the north. This is unpopular, but I think Aegon will abandon his gains & head north to fight in the LN. The whole FAegon theory tends to overshadow what the man who raised Aegon thinks he is, the PtwP.

    • @GlemekOPEnglish
      2•8 months ago

      The stormlands were united under Rogar Baratheon who raised Jaehaerys to kingship, and had been sheltering them for years and probably conspiring for support. Contrast that against Maegor’s regime which was so disorganized and hated by the time of Jaehaerys’ ascension that Maegor couldn’t even marshal a host to make it a battle.

      Whereas Aegon VI isn’t going to win over the Tyrells as long as Maegary is married to Tommen, and the stormlords who aren’t with Stannis in the north are mostly joined with the Tyrell forces already. I think we’ll see some houses defect, once Aegon’s forces start controlling adjoining lands, but I don’t know that pockets of (vulnerable) rebel lords will just start openly declaring for him.

      Let’s look by the region:

      • Westerlands seem firmly held, they got raided by Robb Stark a bit, but are otherwise mostly untouched, even the Ironborn went around them on their way south. Maybe with Tywin dead they could have some more rebellious lords though.
      • Riverlands, I think either the Blackwoods or the Brackens could defect. I think the Brackens are more likely, atleast if they haven’t yet delivered their hostage up, which I am unsure about. The Freys seem very tied to the Lannnisters at this point, both by marriage and because without their support the whole of the riverlands are gonna take revenge for the red wedding. Littlefinger / Bonifer Hasty / Harrenhal I don’t know that littlefinger is really gonna have much input on what Harenhal does, and I would expect Bonifer Hasty to follow the lead of the sparrows if anything, but the holy hundred lightly hold Harenhal, so opportunity maybe.
      • The Reach is with the Lannisters through Maegary, unless the Tyrells get betrayed by their some of their prominent bannermen, but the Redwynes and Hightowers seem tied up with the Ironborn situation, so that leaves the Tarlys?
      • Dorne I think is most likely to be favorable, but also until they find out or give up on Quentyn I think they will try to stay in reserve, since that seems like the bulk of their plan. Starfall could break off and join, but they are just a big mystery so I’m unsure. The Yronwoods are thoroughly tied up in the Quentyn situation, so I doubt they’d be jumping to join a different targ cause. I think the Ullers are a potential ally for Aegon VI, but they are both a total mystery, and supposed to be nuts, so who knows if thats good for the cause or not.
      • The Vale is also at full strength, but seem to me to be positioned to line up for Sansa or whatever else littlefinger wants them to do maybe a renewed conflict in the Riverlands or joining the war in the North?
      • The North is too far away to meaningfully aid Aegon if they wanted to, winter is coming, and their allegiances seem too divided between the Boltons, Stannis, and a potential Stark restoration. The wildling situation and the Others seem very separate from the Aegon plot. I think you could be onto something with Aegon deciding he needs to pull a Stannis and go fight the Others, but that’s kind of the only way I see these plotlines coming together without another like 5 books we’ll also never get.
      • The Ironborn have Euron, and Victarion is coming back with Daenerys if he is coming back at all, which is a whole other wrench in the Gears for Aegon.

      I think Aegon fighting the Others would be cool and would make sense, but I think it would have to be Others in the South, moreso than going North. Which as a side note, I hope the Others make it South and have an effect somewhere beyond the North. If they just lose a big battle at the wall, or in the ruins of winterfell and that’s it, it would be kind of lame.

      Well that got longer than I intended.

      tl;dr I think Aegon VI’s situation is very different to Jaehaerys I’s, and it’d be cool for Aegon to be a big contributor to whatever resolves the conflict with the Others / LN.