The odds of Donald Trump securing victory over Joe Biden in November have lengthened from 2/5 on Thursday to 8/15 on Friday, according to William Hill.

I have no idea about William Hill. But the odds they describe sound about right to me, and the Nate Silver thing and the summary of Trump’s speech sound informative

inb4 BIDEN COPIUM HAHAHA etc and etc

  • mozzOP
    33•4 months ago

    Or whoever the Democratic nominee is

    There’s a perfectly reasonable conversation to be had about replacing Biden being a better strategy. 10 seconds of thinking will lead one to realize that figuring out the strategy, and then switching to it, is way better than dumping Biden and then figuring out the strategy afterwards. And, it’s notable that all the same outlets who are openly hostile to democracy in the United States were the ones that were pushing so hard on the backwards version of the strategy, until the more gullible parts of the Democratic Party apparatus eventually picked it up and started running with it.

    The forward strategy is still fine. The loud preemptive drumbeat of hard criticism of Kamala that is now emerging, though, should hopefully serve as a big loud blaring fucking wake up call to anyone who is sincerely interested in defeating Trump who is still echoing the backwards version.

    • @dragontamerEnglish
      6•4 months ago

      I’ve said it before I’ll say it again. I’m voting for Kamala but it’s not clear she’s better than Biden as a strategy.

      But what is clear is that Kamala is better than nearly everyone else the Democrats can crown between today and the DNC. We only have a 4 months before the election and Kamala is the only one who was actually campaigning at all.

      So if we replace Biden, it’s almost purely to give Kamala a running mate. That’s about it, and these value in this.

      • mozzOP
        5•4 months ago

        Yeah. To me the only options with any level of realistic viability are:

        1. Biden
        2. Harris
        3. Contested convention, someone with a baseball bat in hand talks firmly to the DNC about not fucking everything up with their foot on the scales like they did in 1968 and 2016, and see what shakes out of an actually fair process

        Anything else is nonsense. I have no real ironclad feelings about which of those options is best, although I lean towards 1 or 3, but the DUMP BIDEN RIGHT NOW, NOW NOW NOW, DON’T THINK ABOUT IT BOY DON’T ASK QUESTIONS JUST DO IT OR ELSE YOU DOOM AMERICA AND IT’LL ALL BE YOUR FAULT idea doesn’t appear in that list. To me.

        • @dragontamerEnglish
          3•4 months ago

          Yeah. I’m not against removing Biden (even if I think keeping Biden is the best option). I’m just against a brainless, plan less removal of Biden.

          I’ve pointed out how Liberals rallied in 2011 for Occupy Wall Street only for Republicans to win in 2012, 2014 and 2016. People need to think about politics of they ever want to get ahead.

          It’s not sufficient to just get together in a large rally. We need actual votes.

          I feel like #2 and #3 will likely lead to Kamala. I’m up for an open and fair convention even if Kamala isn’t selected.