• @AIhasUse
    link
    -163 months ago

    And yet 3 weeks ago, a bet on Harris would have paid half as much as a bet on biden. That was well before even biden announced he was stopping. People’s money says something.

    • Magnor
      link
      fedilink
      133 months ago

      Holy shit am I really reading an argument about using bets to forecast an election?

      The part of my brain doing math just spontaneously combusted.

      • @John_McMurray
        link
        -33 months ago

        Huh. That must have been the part that could apply base logic.

      • @AIhasUse
        link
        -123 months ago

        Well, it isn’t fool proof, but somehow, most major prediction markets were saying a harris win was twice as likely as a biden win almost a month ago. If you were asked a month ago who was more likely to win in 2024, would you have said biden or Harris? Probably biden, right? So maybe there is something to them. It’s just an interesting thing. You don’t have to think they are 100%, the world is never that absolute.

    • @TrickDacy
      link
      123 months ago

      With a straight face, you say if someone bets on something it’s inherently more true. Betting. An entire industry powered by the mathematical fact that most betters lose. enjoy Putin’s smegma

      • @AIhasUse
        link
        -113 months ago

        Prediction markets. Google it. Check out their successes. Nothing is 100%. The prediction markets have been saying for almost a month th that Harris as president is twice as likely as Biden. Think about it.

        • @TrickDacy
          link
          83 months ago

          The concept of betting depends on the fact that most betters lose. So yeah I’d say that’s a lot worse than “100%”

          • @AIhasUse
            link
            -43 months ago

            You just haven’t learned about prediction markets yet. You’re picturing Vegas, where everyone bets against the house and has to take horrible bets. Prediction markets change based on the bets of others. There have been countless scientific studies demonstrating their incredible ability to predict future events. The vast majority of them have basically been announcing bidens announcement for nearly a month prior to it happening.

            • @TrickDacy
              link
              13 months ago

              Ah yes, betting is suddenly mostly winners somehow if you change the context lol

              • @AIhasUse
                link
                13 months ago

                Nope. You’re still not understanding. Betting isn’t mostly winners. It actually comes down at about 50/50 if measured by value and in a fair market. You really just don’t know about this topic. Don’t let that stop you from being condescending, though. It’s kinda sweet in a puppy barking at a truck kinda way.

                • @Ensign_Crab
                  link
                  English
                  23 months ago

                  Don’t let that stop you from being condescending, though.

                  There is nothing that will ever stop them from being condescending.

                • @TrickDacy
                  link
                  03 months ago

                  Your point: hey everyone place your blind faith in another imperfect system.

                  My point: no that’s dumb just vote

                  You win though

                  • @AIhasUse
                    link
                    03 months ago

                    Nothing about this is faith based. You’re out of your league Donny.

                    It’s no wonder that 4 sentences are tldr for you.

                • @jordanlund
                  shield
                  M
                  link
                  23 months ago

                  Removed, civility + slur.