@laverabeM to Political Discussion and CommentaryEnglish • 2 months agoHarris is 3% up on Trump in national polling, what do you think the polling will look like in November?message-square11arrow-up113arrow-down15file-text
arrow-up18arrow-down1message-squareHarris is 3% up on Trump in national polling, what do you think the polling will look like in November?@laverabeM to Political Discussion and CommentaryEnglish • 2 months agomessage-square11file-text
minus-square@krelvarlinkEnglish2•2 months agoPerhaps the 538 simulation projector would be along those lines? https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2024-election-forecast/
minus-square@laverabeOPMlinkEnglish1•2 months agoah yeah, I had forgot about that. He was dead wrong in 2016 ;) I think he had Clinton at like 80% chance of winning, but I believe whatever errors they made back then were mostly corrected since.
minus-square@krelvarlinkEnglish2•2 months agoSilver isn’t with 538 anymore, I think his model and the 538 model have the same basis though, probably diverging a bit since he left? In any case, the point that an 80% chance of X is no guarantee of X got pounded home, don’t you think? :)
Perhaps the 538 simulation projector would be along those lines?
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2024-election-forecast/
ah yeah, I had forgot about that. He was dead wrong in 2016 ;) I think he had Clinton at like 80% chance of winning, but I believe whatever errors they made back then were mostly corrected since.
Silver isn’t with 538 anymore, I think his model and the 538 model have the same basis though, probably diverging a bit since he left?
In any case, the point that an 80% chance of X is no guarantee of X got pounded home, don’t you think? :)