• @laverabeOPM
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    12 months ago

    ah yeah, I had forgot about that. He was dead wrong in 2016 ;) I think he had Clinton at like 80% chance of winning, but I believe whatever errors they made back then were mostly corrected since.

    • @krelvar
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      22 months ago

      Silver isn’t with 538 anymore, I think his model and the 538 model have the same basis though, probably diverging a bit since he left?

      In any case, the point that an 80% chance of X is no guarantee of X got pounded home, don’t you think? :)