Her poll numbers went from flatlined to now declining. She’s not only not gaining ground, she is now losing ground.
If you are, this is a bad argument. Anyone who knows politics knows her momentum was always going to slow, and polls will ebb and flow.
Yeah, I’m not interested in what most lemmings think is a bad or a good argument. Most lemming are fucking idiots when it comes to politics and are just here to cheer on their team. They are allergic to reality when it disagrees with how they wish things were.
The polls have shown this is a historically close election, it has been since Harris announced and will be until election day.
Yeah except that they are not. Its not even close to close right now. Harris has a -5 structural disadvantage baked into the EC map. So nationally, she needs to be up by 5 to be even. She’s not up by five, she’s up by 2-3, which means she’s not even overcoming structural bias (MOE not even worth discussing here). Biden was up by +9 on election day. It came down to something like 80k total votes that gave Biden the office?
So no. Kamala isn’t winning. She’s under performing Biden 2020. By a lot. She needs to do better or she’ll lose this thing.
She’s only ever been going up and gaining momentum
Only if you live in an echo-chamber that is built to feed-back to you the things you want to hear instead of looking at actual data. Keep in mind, Trump supporters say the identical thing that you are saying about your candidate, about their candidate
Reality check. Harris did have real momentum coming out of the convention. She doesn’t have it any longer. The rate of change in her polling has declined across all polls (eg, momentum) and even in some cases gone negative (she’s losing ground). Harris was almost universially increasing or maintaining her momentum until about 2 weeks out from the convention. This has changed (as did her campaign strategy and messaging). Harris is no longer on track to win. She is on track to lose if these polling results hold true. As well, these figures are consistent across the swing states.
Florida:
Michigan:
Nevada:
You get the picture, and you have the tools to reproduce these results and come back to reality.
So do I get the apology right now or do I have to wait?
[Addendum: If you need access to Nate Silvers data to reproduce this, I can provide. Alternatively, you can use 538 and recode it a bit. Nates data is generally easier to work with and I’ll drop the links below for completeness. I want you to be confident in these results. If you have trouble accessing, let me know.
Answer the question: when Harris’s declining poll numbers are the news cycle, will you apologize in public?
Edit: and “helping my case”? 😂 Bruh. This political forum gets it so consistently wrong. You are the definition of who the quote I offered I meant to define.
Her poll numbers went from flatlined to now declining. She’s not only not gaining ground, she is now losing ground.
Yeah, I’m not interested in what most lemmings think is a bad or a good argument. Most lemming are fucking idiots when it comes to politics and are just here to cheer on their team. They are allergic to reality when it disagrees with how they wish things were.
Yeah except that they are not. Its not even close to close right now. Harris has a -5 structural disadvantage baked into the EC map. So nationally, she needs to be up by 5 to be even. She’s not up by five, she’s up by 2-3, which means she’s not even overcoming structural bias (MOE not even worth discussing here). Biden was up by +9 on election day. It came down to something like 80k total votes that gave Biden the office?
So no. Kamala isn’t winning. She’s under performing Biden 2020. By a lot. She needs to do better or she’ll lose this thing.
Why does every major poll say the opposite of your lie?
In a week or two when this is the major news cycle, your going to apologize right?
Absolutely, hope you do the same
And what would I be apologizing for? I made no accusations of you, like you did me.
Ah man we need that RemindMe bot so I don’t have to set a reminder.
No need to wait… I already clapped back; see below.
Apologize for the lying
Ok great. Show me the lie and we can take it from there.
About her poll numbers declining and flat lining. She’s only ever been going up and gaining momentum
Only if you live in an echo-chamber that is built to feed-back to you the things you want to hear instead of looking at actual data. Keep in mind, Trump supporters say the identical thing that you are saying about your candidate, about their candidate
Reality (for GA) (Data accessed, 10/10/24, 20:03:54 UTC, Silver Bullets, and a codeshare link for you to reproduce this figure):
Reality (for NC) :
Reality (for PA) :
Reality check. Harris did have real momentum coming out of the convention. She doesn’t have it any longer. The rate of change in her polling has declined across all polls (eg, momentum) and even in some cases gone negative (she’s losing ground). Harris was almost universially increasing or maintaining her momentum until about 2 weeks out from the convention. This has changed (as did her campaign strategy and messaging). Harris is no longer on track to win. She is on track to lose if these polling results hold true. As well, these figures are consistent across the swing states.
Florida:
Michigan:
Nevada:
You get the picture, and you have the tools to reproduce these results and come back to reality.
So do I get the apology right now or do I have to wait?
[Addendum: If you need access to Nate Silvers data to reproduce this, I can provide. Alternatively, you can use 538 and recode it a bit. Nates data is generally easier to work with and I’ll drop the links below for completeness. I want you to be confident in these results. If you have trouble accessing, let me know.
AZ: https://static.dwcdn.net/data/PIfyl.csv
FL: https://static.dwcdn.net/data/cjyet.csv
GA: https://static.dwcdn.net/data/UsnHS.csv
MI: https://static.dwcdn.net/data/aXTQJ.csv
MN: https://static.dwcdn.net/data/9UhVa.csv
NV: https://static.dwcdn.net/data/cmRIw.csv
NH: https://static.dwcdn.net/data/3o8Wf.csv
NC: https://static.dwcdn.net/data/dU8Ti.csv
PA: https://static.dwcdn.net/data/Jhz1g.csv
TX: https://static.dwcdn.net/data/IRAjD.csv
VA: https://static.dwcdn.net/data/TgibS.csv
WI: https://static.dwcdn.net/data/8vbx4.csv
]
🤡
It is difficult to get someone to understand something when their identity depends upon them not understanding it.
Yeah you continually prove that quite well.
Funny, I expected someone to say this to you.
What do I give a fuck what someone’s whose world view prevents them from a accurately assessing the present thinks?
Again, you keep saying things that should belong in a selfawarewolves community.
That’s just your distorted perspective because you live in a confirmation bias bubble.
Can I expect your sincere apology in a week when this point that I’m making is the news cycle?
Still not helping your case, friendly selfawarewolf.
Answer the question: when Harris’s declining poll numbers are the news cycle, will you apologize in public?
Edit: and “helping my case”? 😂 Bruh. This political forum gets it so consistently wrong. You are the definition of who the quote I offered I meant to define.
The lion, the witch, and the audacity of this bitch…