4 reasons why you’re better off ignoring it.

On average, the D less R margin in the early vote mispredicted the final Clinton/Trump margin by 14 points! Pollsters get yelled at when their polls are off by even 3 points, and anything more than that is considered an absolute disaster. Imagine if a poll was off by 14 points: no one would ever listen to it again! And yet we get the same frankly amateurish analysis of the early vote in every election.

  • @foggy
    6•7 hours ago

    🙄

    I think the youth call what you’re doing “glizzy” or something?

    Nate Silver’s Political Prediction Misses:

    • 2008 Democratic Primaries – Miscalculated early on, adjusted projections as race continued.
    • 2016 Republican Primaries – Low initial odds for Trump’s nomination.
    • 2016 Presidential Election – Predicted Clinton over Trump with 71.4%.
    • 2020 Presidential Election – Projected Biden 89% to win; closer in swing states.
    • 2018 Midterm Senate Races – Overestimated Democratic chances in key states.
    • 2014 Midterms – Underrated Republican gains, particularly in the Senate.

    Nate Silver’s Sports Prediction Successes:

    • PECOTA Model – Accurate MLB player performance forecasting.
    • 2008 MLB Playoff Predictions – Success with playoff team forecasts.
    • March Madness – Generally accurate bracket predictions for early rounds.
    • 2012 MLB Season – High accuracy in team win predictions.
    • NBA Forecasts – Reliable win projections using Elo ratings.

    You wanna keep going tit for tat, homie? It won’t shake out in your favor. Let’s see you show me some sports failures. I’ll keep showing you successes.

    You keep showing me political successes. I’ll keep showing you failures.

    Let’s see who burns out first.

    Ask his wife or kids. Or just check their social media.

    The dude is talented. Not in politics.

    • geekwithsoulOPEnglish
      3•6 hours ago

      Weirdly antagonistic tone and not sure when Silver pissed in your Wheaties, but you obviously have a hang up about him. No desire to go tit for tat, other than to say he’s been more reliably accurate over time than anyone else when it comes to politics. It’s like baseball - if you lifetime hit for .300, everyone is going to know your name.

      Also, the whole point of the article is that early voting patterns are not indicative of final results. That’s not polling analysis or data modeling, that’s just historical fact. I don’t think Silver is perfect, and he’s got problematic issues, but on this point he’s just pointing out the thing the media ignores because it gives them headlines galore for the last two weeks before the election.

      • @foggy
        8•5 hours ago

        Weirdly antagonistic tone…

        Not weirdly antagonistic at all when you quite literally challenged me.

        I’d list others but I doubt you’d read it anyway

        You are the antagonizer. Eat a cumsock.

        I see you decided to step down from your antagonization you literally asked for:

        I’d list others but I doubt you’d read it anyway

        Which was a wise move on a plaintext debate platform since you know you’re 100% out of steam.

        Have a good night Holmes.

        Edit: to be perfectly clear here…

        • You posted about Nate silver.
        • I responded with my discontent towards Nate silver…
        • You responded attacking and challenging me, personally
        • I stepped up
        • You went trump mode? Attacked me again instead of the argument.
        • I am now calling you out on bad rhetoric.