He is going to lose comfortably.

Mark it.

It’s just a matter of how much violence is going to happen before it’s done and if SCOTUS tries any kind of bullshit.

  • @FlowVoid
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    1215 hours ago

    That’s huge because new voters aren’t counted by pollsters as “likely voters”.

    Actually, they might be. In this article, a “new voter” is someone who did not vote in 2020 in Pennsylvania.

    If they voted elsewhere in 2020 (ie recently moved to PA) then they could be counted as likely voters in polls even though they are “new voters”.

    • @jordanlundM
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      314 hours ago

      Yeah, I could see that angle as well:

      https://www.centredaily.com/news/state/pennsylvania/article283101998.html

      “The federal agency estimates nearly 263,000 people residing in Pennsylvania in 2022 lived in a different state one year ago.”

      That being said, when I get polled, they only ask if I’m registered in my current state and if I voted in the last election, not if I voted in this state.

      • @FlowVoid
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        14 hours ago

        Right, LV polls often don’t ask where you voted.

        But this article is not about a poll. They are looking publicly available PA voting records. They look like this:

        • Doe, John: voted in 2024, 2020
        • Doe, Jane: voted in 2024

        PA isn’t going to cross-reference their database with other states. So there is no good way to tell if Jane Doe is a first time voter or just a recent move. Either way, she is a new voter.