Georgia: Biden won by 11,779, Kamala lost by 115,100= -126,879 difference … Trump 2020 2,461,854 vs 2024 2,663,117= +201,263… So Biden no shows wouldn’t have changed this one (assuming they stayed home and didn’t vote for Trump)… If they did go vote for Trump then only 74,384 were actual no shows, also wouldn’t have made a difference.
North Carolina: Biden lost by 74,483, Kamala lost by 183,048= -105,565 difference… Trump 2020 2,758,775 vs 2024 2,898,428 = +139,653 So Biden no shows wouldn’t have changed this one (assuming they stayed home and didn’t vote for Trump)… If they did go vote for Trump then only 34,088 were actual no shows, also wouldn’t have made a difference.
Michigan: Biden won by 154,188, Kamala lost by 80,618= -234,806 difference… Trump 2020 vs 2024= +154,795= So Biden no shows would have changed this one (assuming they stayed home and didn’t vote for Trump)… If they did go vote for Trump then only 80,011 were actual no shows, also wouldn’t have made a difference.
Alright, I concede… In only some of the swing states would the Biden no shows have changed the results. The electoral college is garbage.
I think finding out whether the Biden no shows actually stayed home or went out to vote for Trump is important. And the people that definitely stayed home, why?
Either way, Dems should stop trying to court the right who might swing Dem one election but then swing maga the next… Court the left, at least they’ll only swing between showing up or not showing up. As much as libs like to say not voting= voting for Trump, it’s far less of a vote for Trump than an ACTUAL vote for Trump.
When I ran the number I had a few other takeaways worth noting.
Harris received about 8.6% less than Biden nationally.
In the swing states, Harris out performed him four of them (GA +2.9%, NV +.1%, NC +.2%, WI +2.3%)
In the remaining three the percentage loss was less than the national (AZ -5.7%, MI -2.9%, and PA -2.6%)
Trump increased turnout in the seven swing states relative to 2020 (the lowest was in NC +4.0% and the highest was NV +12.0%)
Looking at the numbers this way, you see that Trump was able to turnout the vote more than Harris in the seven swing states. What were they doing right? Who were these people?
In NC, you see a lot of split ticket votes. These are people who voted for Trump for President, but then voted for the Democratic governor. In MI, AZ, WI, and NV you see a split tickets electing Democratic Senators.
Swing voters and independents, like you mentioned in your first message, aren’t as prominent as self-reporting polling suggests. But low-propensity voters have no loyalty. They may vote, they may not, they may vote Republican or Democrat. They are the true vibe voter. And in the seven swing states, they matter. In a dystopic way, all our fates lie with about 10-15% of the voting population who could take it to leave it.
Finally, as for those who stay home… We have a consistent 1/3 of the voting eligible population who don’t vote. Some of these people just haven’t reached any meaningful political consciousness. They are young or unhoused or just don’t think the system can change. But then there’s a portion of that 1/3 that vote one cycle and not the next. This makes a portion of that 1/3 dynamic. But they just don’t feel that their vote counts. That last one could change if we change the system. But we only change the system when we are in crisis. And then we only change the system enough to get out of crisis.
Thanks for this… Yeah, I think the Dems need to run a campaign of “we’re going to unfuck the election system first and foremost” (and have a good plan) to get a lot of the couch sitters to vote.
Georgia: Biden won by 11,779, Kamala lost by 115,100= -126,879 difference … Trump 2020 2,461,854 vs 2024 2,663,117= +201,263… So Biden no shows wouldn’t have changed this one (assuming they stayed home and didn’t vote for Trump)… If they did go vote for Trump then only 74,384 were actual no shows, also wouldn’t have made a difference.
North Carolina: Biden lost by 74,483, Kamala lost by 183,048= -105,565 difference… Trump 2020 2,758,775 vs 2024 2,898,428 = +139,653 So Biden no shows wouldn’t have changed this one (assuming they stayed home and didn’t vote for Trump)… If they did go vote for Trump then only 34,088 were actual no shows, also wouldn’t have made a difference.
Michigan: Biden won by 154,188, Kamala lost by 80,618= -234,806 difference… Trump 2020 vs 2024= +154,795= So Biden no shows would have changed this one (assuming they stayed home and didn’t vote for Trump)… If they did go vote for Trump then only 80,011 were actual no shows, also wouldn’t have made a difference.
Alright, I concede… In only some of the swing states would the Biden no shows have changed the results. The electoral college is garbage.
I think finding out whether the Biden no shows actually stayed home or went out to vote for Trump is important. And the people that definitely stayed home, why?
Either way, Dems should stop trying to court the right who might swing Dem one election but then swing maga the next… Court the left, at least they’ll only swing between showing up or not showing up. As much as libs like to say not voting= voting for Trump, it’s far less of a vote for Trump than an ACTUAL vote for Trump.
I appreciate that you ran the numbers.
When I ran the number I had a few other takeaways worth noting.
Looking at the numbers this way, you see that Trump was able to turnout the vote more than Harris in the seven swing states. What were they doing right? Who were these people?
In NC, you see a lot of split ticket votes. These are people who voted for Trump for President, but then voted for the Democratic governor. In MI, AZ, WI, and NV you see a split tickets electing Democratic Senators.
Swing voters and independents, like you mentioned in your first message, aren’t as prominent as self-reporting polling suggests. But low-propensity voters have no loyalty. They may vote, they may not, they may vote Republican or Democrat. They are the true vibe voter. And in the seven swing states, they matter. In a dystopic way, all our fates lie with about 10-15% of the voting population who could take it to leave it.
Finally, as for those who stay home… We have a consistent 1/3 of the voting eligible population who don’t vote. Some of these people just haven’t reached any meaningful political consciousness. They are young or unhoused or just don’t think the system can change. But then there’s a portion of that 1/3 that vote one cycle and not the next. This makes a portion of that 1/3 dynamic. But they just don’t feel that their vote counts. That last one could change if we change the system. But we only change the system when we are in crisis. And then we only change the system enough to get out of crisis.
Thanks for this… Yeah, I think the Dems need to run a campaign of “we’re going to unfuck the election system first and foremost” (and have a good plan) to get a lot of the couch sitters to vote.