Donald Trump’s proposed tariffs will dent U.S. economic growth going into 2026, said Morgan Stanley’s chief global economist Seth Carpenter.
President-elect Trump has stated that he intends to impose a blanket tariff of 10% to 20% on all imports, along with extra tariffs ranging from 60% to 100% on goods imported from China. During the September Presidential debate, he described this approach as a means to extract funds from competing countries.
There is also a question of when and how swiftly these tariffs get implemented. In the event that they are enacted all at once, they could result in a “big negative shock” to the economy, Carpenter told CNBC’s Sri Jegarajah on the sidelines of Morgan Stanley’s annual Asia Pacific Summit in Singapore.
Carpenter, who maintained Morgan Stanley’s base case of these tariffs being spread over 2025, said they would lead to higher inflation.
“Then into 2026, we think growth starts to come down a great deal in the U.S. because of those tariffs and some of the other policies,” he cautioned.
“Very clear, tariffs push up inflation. Very clear, tariffs are a drag on growth for the U.S., not just for the countries that the tariffs are put on,” Carpenter added.
“Growth” is possibly the dumbest metric we’ve been sold.
But now every publicly traded or VC backed company has to “grow” constantly at a multiplicative rate endlessly. Can’t be happy making some number of units a year. Gotta diversify and keep finding new ways to grow the business.
God forbid anybody mentions market saturation, or even worse: long term customer satisfaction.
No, profit and dividends weren’t enough. Growth offers more faster, so torch anything that stands in the way.
I feel you… but without “growth”, how will all these children get job, and how will we get promotions?