Just statistics, there’s a 99% chance to not turn into a woman each time, and 99% ^ 100 ≈ 37%. So the chance of turning into a woman after 100 presses is 100% - 37% = 63%.
The button does not know or care that it has been pressed by anyone. Every press is a new roll of a die, so to speak, that has an equal chance to land anywhere between 1 and 100. You can also read about the Gambler’s Fallacy https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gambler’s_fallacy
That’s under the (reasonable) assumption that every press is indeed a new roll of the die, of course. It can also be that someone rolled the die when they were making the button, so it always does the same thing and there’s a 99% chance that thing is giving you money.
I will press it 100 times
Only a 63% chance if you do it 100 times, do it a few thousand to be safe (and richer).
yeah, but if I get in the billionaire territory, I’ll have to kill myself
Why is that?
Just statistics, there’s a 99% chance to not turn into a woman each time, and 99% ^ 100 ≈ 37%. So the chance of turning into a woman after 100 presses is 100% - 37% = 63%.
The button does not know or care that it has been pressed by anyone. Every press is a new roll of a die, so to speak, that has an equal chance to land anywhere between 1 and 100. You can also read about the Gambler’s Fallacy https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gambler’s_fallacy
That’s under the (reasonable) assumption that every press is indeed a new roll of the die, of course. It can also be that someone rolled the die when they were making the button, so it always does the same thing and there’s a 99% chance that thing is giving you money.