minus-square@zxqwaslink2•5 days agoIf 1 in 20 conspiracy theories are correct then you’ll be 95% correct if you disbelieve all of them. If you pick one to believe in you’ll be about 90% correct on average. If you pick 10 you’ll be about 50% correct.
minus-squarelazynoobletlinkfedilinkEnglish9•5 days agoI don’t get the middle statement. If you pick just one, the chance is 5%
minus-square@zxqwaslink3•edit-25 days agoIf you pick one you’re 5% likely to pick the right one and be 100% correct. You’re 95% likely to pick the wrong one. Then you miss the conspiracy that is true and you believe in one that is not true so 18/20 = 90% correct. Average out the probabilities and it should turn out to be something like 90.5%. Edit:I may be off on the maths now that I think about it.
If 1 in 20 conspiracy theories are correct then you’ll be 95% correct if you disbelieve all of them.
If you pick one to believe in you’ll be about 90% correct on average.
If you pick 10 you’ll be about 50% correct.
I don’t get the middle statement. If you pick just one, the chance is 5%
Looks like Big Math got to you
If you pick one you’re 5% likely to pick the right one and be 100% correct.
You’re 95% likely to pick the wrong one. Then you miss the conspiracy that is true and you believe in one that is not true so 18/20 = 90% correct.
Average out the probabilities and it should turn out to be something like 90.5%.
Edit:I may be off on the maths now that I think about it.