minus-squarelazynoobletlinkfedilinkEnglish9•6 days agoI don’t get the middle statement. If you pick just one, the chance is 5%
minus-square@zxqwaslink3•edit-25 days agoIf you pick one you’re 5% likely to pick the right one and be 100% correct. You’re 95% likely to pick the wrong one. Then you miss the conspiracy that is true and you believe in one that is not true so 18/20 = 90% correct. Average out the probabilities and it should turn out to be something like 90.5%. Edit:I may be off on the maths now that I think about it.
I don’t get the middle statement. If you pick just one, the chance is 5%
Looks like Big Math got to you
If you pick one you’re 5% likely to pick the right one and be 100% correct.
You’re 95% likely to pick the wrong one. Then you miss the conspiracy that is true and you believe in one that is not true so 18/20 = 90% correct.
Average out the probabilities and it should turn out to be something like 90.5%.
Edit:I may be off on the maths now that I think about it.