We already had the “now everything will get better” moment when Obama replaced Bush Jr. and brought promises of change and the USA becoming a better country. He was a lame duck for many reasons but he did make an effort to short up the country’s reputation.
Bush had demonstrated that the USA were perfectly capable of suddenly tearing up agreements that had been stable for decades. Obama’s case was that this was a one-time slip-up, that the USA were still a reliable and trustworthy partner. It was a hard case to make on an international stage where treaties are expected to remain stable for decades if not centuries but he made that point by leaning on the States’ accumulated goodwill as a trade partner.
Then Trump I shat all over that and made clear that no, American policy could pivot on a dime and having to renegotiate everything every four years was just the cost of doing business with the USA these days. And you better did business with the USA on their terms or they’d get mad.
Biden tried to do an Obama but a) was even more of a lame duck and b) tried to argue a point that had become thoroughly implausible at this point.
Trump II now shows us that four years was actually restrained by American standards and that American policy can now change whenever and however he wants it to, continuity and common sense be damned. L’Etat c’est lui. On a stage where a decade is a short time he changes the country’s tenor on a weekly basis.
The EU’s reaction? Trade deals with just about everyone else. Mercosur. Canada. Japan. The UK. Singapore. Vietnam. New Zealand. Ukraine. Moldova. Georgia. Kenya. Plus several others in early stages. Which European trade deals are staling out? The ones with the USA and China.
The world is pivoting away from the USA because it lost its trust in America as a trade partner and it’s going to take decades of concentrated and stable good-faith effort to regain that trust. The States won’t just have to make a case for keeping them as a preferred partner but for making them a preferred partner again. The hurdle is higher now.
Not really.
We already had the “now everything will get better” moment when Obama replaced Bush Jr. and brought promises of change and the USA becoming a better country. He was a lame duck for many reasons but he did make an effort to short up the country’s reputation.
Bush had demonstrated that the USA were perfectly capable of suddenly tearing up agreements that had been stable for decades. Obama’s case was that this was a one-time slip-up, that the USA were still a reliable and trustworthy partner. It was a hard case to make on an international stage where treaties are expected to remain stable for decades if not centuries but he made that point by leaning on the States’ accumulated goodwill as a trade partner.
Then Trump I shat all over that and made clear that no, American policy could pivot on a dime and having to renegotiate everything every four years was just the cost of doing business with the USA these days. And you better did business with the USA on their terms or they’d get mad.
Biden tried to do an Obama but a) was even more of a lame duck and b) tried to argue a point that had become thoroughly implausible at this point.
Trump II now shows us that four years was actually restrained by American standards and that American policy can now change whenever and however he wants it to, continuity and common sense be damned. L’Etat c’est lui. On a stage where a decade is a short time he changes the country’s tenor on a weekly basis.
The EU’s reaction? Trade deals with just about everyone else. Mercosur. Canada. Japan. The UK. Singapore. Vietnam. New Zealand. Ukraine. Moldova. Georgia. Kenya. Plus several others in early stages. Which European trade deals are staling out? The ones with the USA and China.
The world is pivoting away from the USA because it lost its trust in America as a trade partner and it’s going to take decades of concentrated and stable good-faith effort to regain that trust. The States won’t just have to make a case for keeping them as a preferred partner but for making them a preferred partner again. The hurdle is higher now.