Young voters are breaking from Biden, helping give Trump a narrow lead for the first time in NBC News polling, though the gap is within the margin of error.
So, NBC found about 141 18-29-year-olds & called them in their latest “poll” released today. Here’s what NBC doesn’t tell you: research shows 9/10 Gen Z-ers would rather text than phone call. I’m sorry but if your polling method of Gen Z is calling, you should all be skeptical.
I’m Gen X and I wouldn’t answer my phone if an unknown number called me, and if they left a voicemail saying they were trying to poll me for something and to call back, I’d assume it was a scam. I’m guessing people younger than me mostly feel the same way.
I remeber when I was in college, and polls were showing Bush ahead of Kerry. We all complained that the pollsters only called landlines, and that millennials only had cellphones. We were convinced that the polls were wrong because of this, then the millennials didn’t show up to vote because Kerry had voted to start the Iraq war, and then Bush won reelection.
I remember this being said all the time in 2015. Both sides (legitimately used in this case) will always blame polling errors when the polls don’t say what they want. Among republicans, they say that conservative voters are more distrustful of authority and so don’t answer the phone or respond to polls, or that people are too embarrassed to admit to their support for Trump but will vote for him anyway.
That’s not how sampling works. Unless the excluded group is biased toward a result it doesn’t change how representative it is. Are you claiming that the type of Gen Z who would answer a call is biased for or against Biden?
You don’t have the ability to determine bias in a straight poll, yet if you exclude 9 of 10 on the sample you’ve created a bias because they are not representative.
That’s again not how sampling bias works. If you called these people and asked what their favorite color was, you wouldn’t have an unrepresentative sample. It’s only if your sample is itself biased toward a response. Very small samples might have larger error bars, but they aren’t inherently unrepresentative unless the method of sampling is corelated with a response.
So, NBC found about 141 18-29-year-olds & called them in their latest “poll” released today. Here’s what NBC doesn’t tell you: research shows 9/10 Gen Z-ers would rather text than phone call. I’m sorry but if your polling method of Gen Z is calling, you should all be skeptical.
I’m Gen X and I wouldn’t answer my phone if an unknown number called me, and if they left a voicemail saying they were trying to poll me for something and to call back, I’d assume it was a scam. I’m guessing people younger than me mostly feel the same way.
I remeber when I was in college, and polls were showing Bush ahead of Kerry. We all complained that the pollsters only called landlines, and that millennials only had cellphones. We were convinced that the polls were wrong because of this, then the millennials didn’t show up to vote because Kerry had voted to start the Iraq war, and then Bush won reelection.
This feels so similar.
I remember this being said all the time in 2015. Both sides (legitimately used in this case) will always blame polling errors when the polls don’t say what they want. Among republicans, they say that conservative voters are more distrustful of authority and so don’t answer the phone or respond to polls, or that people are too embarrassed to admit to their support for Trump but will vote for him anyway.
Unless you want to claim the type of Gen Z who would answer a phone poll would bias the results this is irrelevant.
Controlling the sample and excluding parts of the sample very much screws the results of a poll.
That’s not how sampling works. Unless the excluded group is biased toward a result it doesn’t change how representative it is. Are you claiming that the type of Gen Z who would answer a call is biased for or against Biden?
You don’t have the ability to determine bias in a straight poll, yet if you exclude 9 of 10 on the sample you’ve created a bias because they are not representative.
That’s again not how sampling bias works. If you called these people and asked what their favorite color was, you wouldn’t have an unrepresentative sample. It’s only if your sample is itself biased toward a response. Very small samples might have larger error bars, but they aren’t inherently unrepresentative unless the method of sampling is corelated with a response.
F your sample is not representative then the poll is invalid. Perhaps you know better