As leading experts on climate change, we often get asked if there’s hope for the planet — but it may surprise people that we find more cause for optimism than despair.
Overall, oil companies are withdrawing investment from exploration and new drilling. It seems oil companies are not drilling new but riding out on the investment they’ve already made plus utilizing market power to squeeze out profits. In terms of Biden’s political calculus, it seems that they think new drilling leases don’t involve much risk of increased oil coming onto the market, but it does improve his position among voters, especially in an era of inflation. Plus, this gave him political capital to pass the IRA, especially with Manchin.
Think about this for a second. People always blame the president for gas prices, even though they don’t have as much influence as people believe. Him keeping priced reasonable keeps him elected. The world is dependent on fossil fuels right now. If we were to stop producing tomorrow, store shelves would be empty. There would be global famine. It would not be pretty. I.e. his options are bad and worse.
Local governments are where some of the most important fights are. The more municipalities reduce car dependency, the more these oil projects will be a moot point and waste of BP/Exxon/etc money.
So what are you trying to accomplish? Convince people to give up? It is possible to turn things around. I’m sure things seemed pretty hopeless in some of the first Axis occupied countries in the beginning of WW2.
The problem Biden has is that most US allies do not have large local oil production. Even thou the US is the largest producer in the world, the next ones are Russia, Saudi Arabia, Iraq and China. Then next is Brazil, which is not as bad as the others for sue, but not exactly an ally of the US. Then it continues with the UAE, Iran and Kuwai. Most of them are also in OPEC+, which is cutting production right now.
So those allies mainly Europe and the ones in Asia, like Japan, South Korea and Taiwan all purchase a lot of oil from the Middle East, since the sanctions on Russia started due to the war in Ukraine. That however is a huge problem as the US wants to focus on China, rather then another war in the Middle East. At the same time reducing the oil price weakens all countries in that region, which is great news for the US, besides local voters like it as well.
So thats why you see the US trying to reduce local oil consumption with the inflation reduction act by making more evs, while increasing oil production to not have to fight a war in the Middle East. The EU did ban fossil fuel car sale by 2035 for the same reason. The good part is, if this works a war in the Middle East, could massivly disrupt the flow of oil from the region, without the US feeling the need to intervene. Pretty much all leaders in the region are downright evil, so potentially great news.
Lets just put it like this. There is a reason OPEC tries to keep prices stable and this set up massivly increases the likelyhood for wars in the Middle East, which in turn can create incredible price spikes in the oil market, while at the same time having the option of lowering prices below break even at times. All of that with falling oil demand and it is a recipe for disaster for oil companies.
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Overall, oil companies are withdrawing investment from exploration and new drilling. It seems oil companies are not drilling new but riding out on the investment they’ve already made plus utilizing market power to squeeze out profits. In terms of Biden’s political calculus, it seems that they think new drilling leases don’t involve much risk of increased oil coming onto the market, but it does improve his position among voters, especially in an era of inflation. Plus, this gave him political capital to pass the IRA, especially with Manchin.
This video goes more into detail of the economics behind this trend: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AQbmpecxS2w
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No, but it does change the implication. If leasing doesn’t lead to drilling, then it’s a pretty negligible concern
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So a Trump White House would be better?
Think about this for a second. People always blame the president for gas prices, even though they don’t have as much influence as people believe. Him keeping priced reasonable keeps him elected. The world is dependent on fossil fuels right now. If we were to stop producing tomorrow, store shelves would be empty. There would be global famine. It would not be pretty. I.e. his options are bad and worse.
Local governments are where some of the most important fights are. The more municipalities reduce car dependency, the more these oil projects will be a moot point and waste of BP/Exxon/etc money.
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So what are you trying to accomplish? Convince people to give up? It is possible to turn things around. I’m sure things seemed pretty hopeless in some of the first Axis occupied countries in the beginning of WW2.
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The problem Biden has is that most US allies do not have large local oil production. Even thou the US is the largest producer in the world, the next ones are Russia, Saudi Arabia, Iraq and China. Then next is Brazil, which is not as bad as the others for sue, but not exactly an ally of the US. Then it continues with the UAE, Iran and Kuwai. Most of them are also in OPEC+, which is cutting production right now.
So those allies mainly Europe and the ones in Asia, like Japan, South Korea and Taiwan all purchase a lot of oil from the Middle East, since the sanctions on Russia started due to the war in Ukraine. That however is a huge problem as the US wants to focus on China, rather then another war in the Middle East. At the same time reducing the oil price weakens all countries in that region, which is great news for the US, besides local voters like it as well.
So thats why you see the US trying to reduce local oil consumption with the inflation reduction act by making more evs, while increasing oil production to not have to fight a war in the Middle East. The EU did ban fossil fuel car sale by 2035 for the same reason. The good part is, if this works a war in the Middle East, could massivly disrupt the flow of oil from the region, without the US feeling the need to intervene. Pretty much all leaders in the region are downright evil, so potentially great news.
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Lets just put it like this. There is a reason OPEC tries to keep prices stable and this set up massivly increases the likelyhood for wars in the Middle East, which in turn can create incredible price spikes in the oil market, while at the same time having the option of lowering prices below break even at times. All of that with falling oil demand and it is a recipe for disaster for oil companies.
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