There were plenty of predictions that got the winner right, but the amount that accurately predicted the ~51/47 are much fewer and I believe the rarity is an indicator that accurate prediction is not as clear and straight forward as some may expect even with statistical training.
For me it’s not so much about the specific number and more “Who will win” and it definitely seems like polls do that quite well, even 8 months out etc as you mentioned before.
I think expecting precise accuracy is quite a high bar. The only real test is the election if that is your stance, and by then it’s too late to do anything about it
Really? What about 2020
Almost all correctly predicted a Biden win. We don’t need the precise number just the general lay of the land
There were plenty of predictions that got the winner right, but the amount that accurately predicted the ~51/47 are much fewer and I believe the rarity is an indicator that accurate prediction is not as clear and straight forward as some may expect even with statistical training.
For me it’s not so much about the specific number and more “Who will win” and it definitely seems like polls do that quite well, even 8 months out etc as you mentioned before.
I think expecting precise accuracy is quite a high bar. The only real test is the election if that is your stance, and by then it’s too late to do anything about it