The more candidates in the race, the better for Donald J. Trump, supporters say. And in a tight presidential contest, a small share of voters could change the result.

This works because almost all the US uses first-past-the-post elections for the Presidential general election. So you get outcomes like this:

Scenario 1:

Biden: 10 votes

Trump: 9 votes

Kennedy/Stein/West: 0 votes

Biden wins the state

Scenario 2:

Biden: 9 votes

Trump: 9 votes

Kennedy/Stein/West: 1 vote

Tied vote, decided by game of chance/lawsuit

Scenario 3:

Biden: 8 votes

Trump: 9 votes

Kennedy/Stein/West: 2 votes

Trump wins the state

This is why you see huge financial support from Republican billionaires for third party candidates who have no chance of winning.

  • @Rapidcreek
    27•8 months ago

    Junior is not going to get that many Dem votes. He’s clearly MAGA, or at least MAGA adjacent

    • @stanleytweedleEnglish
      22•8 months ago

      They’re going after formerly reliable Republican votes that have had enough of Trump but don’t really want to vote for Biden.

      Those are very reliable voters and they don’t want them staying home or voting for Biden. So they give them a shitty third-party candidate so they won’t vote for Biden and still show up for the down ballot Republicans. Might take a few potential votes from Biden but that’s only half the goal.

      • @almar_quigley
        6•8 months ago

        Yeah but he’s as fringe as trump just in different ways. Plus it’s the opposite of what they think will happen with the dem vote. Republicans who would otherwise vote Biden or stay home will hear Kennedy and think liberal. But near 0 dems will fall for the same trick.

        • @[email protected]OP
          3•8 months ago

          But near 0 dems will fall for the same trick.

          People who are paying attention to the news, sure. But a lot of people don’t. And that’s who they’re trying to reach. So it’s important to tell people what’s going on.

    • @[email protected]OP
      13•8 months ago

      His campaign is built around on attracting low-information voters, and he has a ton of money to do just that — Kennedy’s vice-presidential pick is the former wife of a Google founder who broke up with him after allegedly sleeping with Musk.

        • @[email protected]OP
          -1•8 months ago

          The Kennedy family name is something that has meaningful appeal to people who aren’t like that and who don’t know anything else. Put a bunch of money into ad campaigns emphasizing that over any actual policy position, and he may well peel off some votes from people like that.

    • @pjwestin
      9•8 months ago

      That’s not entirely true. There is one proven left-leaning group that can be drawn in by MAGA talking points, and that’s the Antivax moms. During the height of the pandemic, QAnon influencers were pretty effective at getting the cruchy-granola-crystal-healing-antivax moms into Trump. The guys at the QAA Podcast covered it really well, but the indoctrination path was basically: The Vaccine is Bad-> The Pandemic is Fake/Overblown-> Face Masks Actually Help Child Traffickers ->You Know Who’s Fighting Traffickers?Trump! Anyway, if an Antivax message can get these folks to support Trump, it can get them to support RFK.

    • @[email protected]
      2•8 months ago

      “Only the other side will vote for this third party” is the constant refrain of someone about to lose because of a spoiler