Wenn man nackt nicht mehr sagen kann, hast du ein Problem…

Genauer gesagt sogar nur nicht mehr sagen darf, ohne kritisiert zu werden.

Hoffe du hast Recht damit. In der breiten Bevölkerung gibt es keinen Rückhalt für das “gendern” der Sprache, wissenschaftlich ist das ganze auch nicht wirklich belegt und die Befürworter sind sich nicht mal einig wie man es nun genau machen soll. Währenddessen bekommen Leute, die gern den Klimawandel ignorieren und Minderheiten “wegmachen” wollen darüber zulauf. Ab in die Schublade damit, zusammen mit dem zur Schau gestellten Selbsthass/Weltschmerz und der intersektionalen Unterdrückungshierarchie. Linke Politik kann sehr gut in allen Schichten (bis vielleicht der Obersten) ankommen, mehrheitsfähig sein.

Wagenknechts neue Partei wird wohl genau das versuchen wenn man ihr glaubt, gehört aber auch zu den Klimawandelherunterspielen und spricht der Ukraine ab sich gegen Russlands illegalen Angriffskrieg zu verteidigen. Also auch für die Tonne.

Why did the SPD fall so far behind?

The SPD has abolished itself. Basically, that Schröder character, who has recently risen to international notoriety for being in Putin’s pocket, reinvented the SPD as a centrist party (modeled after Tony Blair’s “New Labour”) in the early 2000s. They subsequently implemented the harshest social cutbacks in German post-WW2 history. This has led to them losing their credibility as a social democrat party, and they haven’t really changed since. That they scored relatively well in the last federal election was mostly due to the CDU picking Armin Laschet, who can best be described as a sad joke, as their frontrunner.

I think it’s due to several factors.

• Now that CDU is in opposition they spew out even more right wing rethoric in the hopes of gaining voters from AfD. But that also legitimises that view.
• FDP is severely hindering the government, thus anything good it can do has less impact.
• Now that the government is trying to rectify some of the problems CDU (and SPD with them) caused when they were in the government those problems become more apparent. Angela Merkel was great at deflecting all criticism and progress.
• SPD hasn’t really been a social party for decades. That scares people away that actually want a social party. Die Linke isn’t feasible either, they’re deep in Putin’s arse and hate immigrants as much as the right.

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Not over the last decade. They looked at the results of the 2021 election, watched as two smaller parties (FDP and Greens) first negotiated between themselves to then look which one of the bigger parties would be the better coalition partner and panicked as they obviously don’t have actual policies other than “let’s do nothing and everything should stay as it is”. Then they did an instant sharp turn to right-wing populism.

Throughout the last decades, both the SPD under Schröder and the CDU under Merkel pursued a strategy of centrism to win over moderate voters from the other party. In the long run, the CDU was more successful with this strategy, mostly because leftwing voters were more willing to abandon the SPD for a smaller party (Die Linke/The Left) than rightwing voters the CDU. With the rise of the AfD though, this has changed somewhat.

The primary reason, in my opinion, why the SPD did relatively well in the last election (winning the plurality of votes, while being the weakest ever winner of the plurality) was that the CDU considered the Greens to be their primary challenger, focusing their attacks on them while sparing the SPD. As the Greens were in opposition while the SPD was in government alongside the CDU, there wasn’t really any easy attack strategy the CDU could have pursued against both simultaneously.

Now though, the SPD and Greens are part of the same government, a government that has to deal with a lot of crises at once while dealing with infighting. This gives the CDU an easy avenue of attack. At the time, the CDU seems to also pursue a strategy of being more conservative to win back voters from the AfD.

Current polling could either be interpreted as the CDU’s strategy succeeding, as the CDU leads while SPD and Greens trail far behind, or as a failure, as the AfD doesn’t appear to lose any support. The main question is: where would the CDU stand if it had continued with its centrist strategy?

We see a few trends here:

First of all the CDU moved more to the center under Merkel, which squished the SPD. Now it is going back into full right wing, overshooting their previous positions.

The current government faces multiple crisis, that are excarberated by the lack of investment and political progress under Merkel, who governed succesfully on a basis of “go back to sleep, everything is fine” while infrastructure crumbled, energy dependence on Russia increased and the rising far right extremism was conveniently ignored.

Now all these crisis are used by the Nazis from the AfD and outside of parliament to attack the government for failing to make the issues go away in an instant. With that the CDU is joining force with the AfD, moving from conservative positions to far right populism and starting to work together with the AfD on local and state level.

Then the current government from the SPD - social democrats, green party and FDP - liberal party is strongly divided. The Green party tries to bring on necessary reforms that werent done in the past 16 years under Merkel. The FDP attacks them heavily and acts like an opposition inside the government, often violating agreements and changing their minds last minute. The SPD doesnt really have political positions anymore. They just want to have some power and government positions. So Scholz as a chancellor is sitting back, hiding from media and publicity in general. He then just follows who won the current issue between Green party and FDP. This tactic is failing of course because in times of crisis people want a leader that is present and they want a government that seems united.

Finally in Germany there is a lot of far right media, including the Axel Springer publisher, the one where the director of Bild Zeitung had to resign because of sexual misconduct at work and their head Döpfner, is claiming eastern Germans to either be communists or nazis, actively demand his newspapers to strengthen certain parties and last but not least claiming all other media to be like in former eastern Germany. But instead of taking position against such claims he was leader of the journalist association and most newspapers happily follow into the disinformation campaigns started by Springer against the current government.

So overall you have the same situation as in the 20s, where crisis meets a weak government and opportunistic conservative forces in politics and society, that believe they could use the Nazis to gain power and foolishly believe they could control them in the end.

The SPD is doing many thing against people especially their base voters plus hiding in the cirrent government. I guess, it’s no longer clearly what the SPD stands for. Their loss in votes begann with important but not well done reforms in the early 2000s. The CDU has gotten more right but the Problem is that the far right AFD collects all votes from frustrated people who thinks worlds end is better than the current state. So there are people on the far right side coming from CDU and CSU as well as FDP but also from the left parties.

It is still easyer to blame welfare recipients, foreign people and so one instead of using the brain.

GG Art. 20, Absatz 4: Gegen jeden, der es unternimmt, diese Ordnung zu beseitigen, haben alle Deutschen das Recht zum Widerstand, wenn andere Abhilfe nicht möglich ist.

wohin? ¯_ (ツ) _/¯

Ich kann einfach nicht anders.

Aufheb. Hier bitte: \

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Uruguay

Schweiz, Niederlande

Um das zu verhindern, bräuchtest Du Verbündete in staatlichen Strukturen. Dummerweise sind dort aber hauptsächlich bedauerliche Einzelfälle™.

Nochmal 4 Jahre GroKo, dann gibt’s bei der nächsten Wahl auch dafür keine Mehrheit mehr.
Und dann willkommen in der späten Weimarer Republik.

Also zurück zum Stillstand.

Warum nicht? Nordkoreas offizieller Name ist ja auch Demokratische Volksrepublik Korea…

Den offensichtlich unwahren Teil herauskehren würde bei den Parteien aber genau ins Bild passen.

Glaube das kleiner Übel zu wählen ist in Deutschland kein Trend. Zumindest so lange nicht bis die AfD eines Tages 30-40% erreicht und die SPD uns einen Ex-Diktator als das kleinere Übel andreht.

Wenn Weidel und Kickl mal Kanzler sind…

DIE GRÜNEN!

Nennen wir es mal ein Indiz. Es könnte aber auch genau so gut sein dass z.B. die Ankündigung einer Werteunion-Partei-Idee von Maaßen dazu führt dass die rechtsextremen Teile von CDU/CSU erst mal abwarten was damit passiert.

nur kann sich diesmal NIEMAND auf ein “haben wir ja nicht wissen können” retten.

DEN Scheiß glaubt einem schlicht keiner mehr. Vorausgesetzt, da ist dann hinterher noch wer, der das glauben würde…

Sie wird stärker. Ja, Graz ist eine Hochburg.

Wie gesagt ungefähr das Äquivalent zur FDP, allerdings gesellschaftspolitisch mE etwas weiter links. Ich kann die FDP nicht so genau einordnen, die wirkt immer primär wie eine Wirtschaftspartei, so würde ich die NEOS aber eher nicht unbedingt beschreiben.

Sozial links-liberal, Ökonomisch Ultrakapitalisten.

Nein, die beiden passen nicht zusammen.

Ich würd sie aus deutscher Perspektive am ehesten als Öko-FDP verorten

Ich trete bei und werde sowohl einen Linksrutsch innerhalb der Partei auslösen, als auch die Grenzen des Sagbaren nach links verschieben

Wenn’s sein muss