I feel like we should at least consider that DJI is a mainland Chinese company and nearly all drone innovation in the past decade has originated there. They are no strangers to extreme manufacturing or advanced automated drone technology.
Quadcopters are actually insanely simple devices. I dont think the west would have any issue making hundreds of thousands of them without the help of china. Maybe the chips could be an issue but im sure taiwan would be happy to provide.
The future of drone warfare will be determined by software. That’s the one thing where the US still have a huge lead.
We don’t have a lead in software and for an Unmanned Aerial System we need hardware with the software.
In terms of future AI stuff maybe, but for current year practical purposes there is no relevant difference in software capabilities for controlling a bunch of drones in the way it is being done in ukraine.
The Ukrainians are controlling the drones one at a time. One drone, one pilot, operating remotely over wireless link. They’re having an absolutely devastating effect on Russia’s troops and equipment.
Autonomy is the future. It’s how you get to thousands or even millions of drones without the need for millions of human pilots. Trying to attack into a space which is defended by millions of drones absolutely will be a hellscape!
The hard part of good automation is onboard sensor processing. Takes a reasonable amount of compute onboard, which is expensive. Im told the US has a fat wallet though.
Swarms are the next evolution. PTI is the main blocker
They’re already working on autonomous drones. That’s still in its early stages but that will be a decisive factor in the future.
Dji has the best drone software as well…
I dont think the west would have any issue making hundreds of thousands of them without the help of china.
Insanely simple devices still require a certain minimal amount of materials and manpower to assemble. The terrible secret of the Chinese economy is that they simply have more people doing more manufacturing labor. Sure, they often have state of the art equipment and a robust, heavily industrialized logistics system (one reason why western efforts to pivot off-shore manufacturing to Indonesia, Malaysia, India, and the Indochina Peninsula haven’t been particularly successful). But first and foremost, you need physical labor. Americans don’t have a superabundance of domestic labor, so they’re not capable of rapidly churning out lots of low-cost, disposable weapons systems at a rate comparable to the Chinese mainlanders.
And that’s before you get into the cost of deploying, maintaining, and upgrading a large network of low quality units over a long time frame. Imagine building and deploying an entire fleet of Mark 1 Defense Drones to the island, only to discover a major security vulnerability that renders them easily inoperable. You’ve got hundreds of thousands of these units in the field, all of which need to be recalled, patched, and re-tested. That takes manpower, too.
The reason these low cost easily distributed systems work for, say, Houthi Rebels and Palestinian dissidents is that they’ve got these diffuse cells of insurgents with very little else to do except fight. These large ad hoc guerrilla forces are more a consequence of the deplorable state of the local economy than the fighting power of the region. Idle hands, etc.
Americans don’t have that. We’re at near full-employment. We can’t peel off a tens of thousands of young men to go work on the drone assembly lines without suffering economic shortfalls. Hell, neither can Israel, which is why their domestic economy is tanking while they try to make war with virtually all of their Arab neighbors.
The Chinese economy has capacity to spare. The American economy does not. That’s the same problem the Japanese ran into during WW2, and a big reason why they got washed in Mainland China after a decade of horrifying genocidal occupation.
Its funny but when I think of drones and innovation I don’t think of china. China just mass produces but for the most part when the current class of true drones were being created I remember a lot of amateurs working on it and others, china being one of them stealing the base tech. Just like 3d printing.
China just mass produces but for the most part when the current class of true drones were being created I remember a lot of amateurs working on it and others, china being one of them stealing the base tech.
Wait… you think amateur hobbyists out in the American suburbs are inventing new forms of independent flight technology from kits they bought on Amazon. And then some of the largest and most well-financed universities in the world are stealing the technology?
Just purely out of curiosity, who do you think Mingjing Qi, a professor of energy and power engineering at Beihang University stole this schematic from?
Nope. I was involved and it was people all over the world who started building autonomous and semi autonomous drones them starting back in the mid 2000’s when cheap inertial and gyro stabilizers started appearing. I remember the open source projects that eventually matured into commercial products. China was by no means at the forefront of that. It was hobbyist the world over. Some were students at universities. Some lived in the suburbs and villages and big cities. The world over. Way before the alpha tech in that article. That they have taken those first steps and mass produced them by no means implies they invented it all.
it was people all over the world
:-/
What planet is China on?
China was by no means at the forefront of that.
I’m assuming you’re saying this as a Beihang alumnus?
You know they can’t include Chinese innovations if they want to single out China and make them the enemy. The fact is the Chinese own 90% of the consumer drone market because of their innovations. I assume they have good military drones too.
When I think of China I think of serious medical innovations including the cure for fucking HIV and herpes. Idk that they are so great with robotics but I wouldn’t really underestimate them.
Those are being tested, not proven treatments for those diseases.
A few people have been cured of HIV from bone marrow transplants but it has to be a super specific set of circumstances like their blood type has to be a certain type and things like that.
And you don’t find that remarkable compared to before, when no one had been cured?
So completely not true… there have been multiple cases. First, apparently https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Timothy_Ray_Brown
cnn.com/cnn/2019/09/13/health/china-crispr-hiv-intl-hnk
The argument isn’t whether the west has innovation, it’s whether China does, and they do including this cure for HIV which doesn’t rely on donor cells unlike the London & Berlin patients
I think of thieves and I am not underestimating them nor am I giving them credit for most of things they ‘discover’ Since its based on tech they stole. I also know that much of the HIV research did not originate in china.
It’s just not true to say that China is relying on copying other’s technology anymore. In the last decade, they’ve caught up and are now at the cutting edge of research in many fields. I think this shift is catching a lot of people off guard including many western journalists and pundits.
Japan, and S. Korea used to be the thieves and copycats, and now China. That’s how these countries keep up with the current techs and build up their foundation for the future technology, and now are surpassing their counterparts. People need to accept that’s how things work and it won’t change nothing even if they keep whining.
The thing with China now is how people has been underestimating them. All they can think are on their human right issues, Uyghur, child labours etc. And they think that China people are stupid, can’t think and can’t innovate. Sorry to say - currently they have the highest ranking for research yield, Scopus and Nature Index, and not to mention how many PhD graduates they are producing each year. Many people are just in denial. By the time they realize the reality, it’s might be too late to hit back.
I do not support the PRC’s foreign policy but I absolutely envy their commitment to funding research.
Hmm, sounds bigoted. One way I can tell this is bigoted, is that you’re making Chinese people out to be both ultra competent (at stealing) while also being ultra incompetent (at science). This boogeyman who will “get you,” but is also way beneath you and who you obviously can “get back,” has existed towards Jewish people, black people, Islamic people, Latinos, women, gay people, etc etc.
All innovations are based on the people who came before us. Or are you saying the West should give all Arabic people the money we make in hospitals since the origin of the hospital is from there and they were originally free. The origin of our numbers themselves comes from Arabic countries.
Do you think America’s patent system is just? Do you think the patent system stifles innovation? Do you think the inventors of Crispr Gene Editing have more rights to this bone marrow transplant cure for HIV than the actual people who thought of it and implemented it?
Or are you saying the West should give all Arabic people the money
That’s sort of been our policy with the Petro-dollar since the 1950s. But, tbh, we shouldn’t just stop at hospitals. Since our numeral set is Arabic and modern mathematics is routed in Al-Jabr: The Compendious Book on Calculation by Completion and Balancing…
Do you think America’s patent system is just?
Absolutely. Here, let me dig through my PLEX server, I’ve got thousands of hours of legally acquired videos and pdfs arguing this very point.
Do you think the inventors of Crispr Gene Editing have more rights to this bone marrow transplant cure for HIV than the actual people who thought of it and implemented it?
The people of China should pay the patent holders of the modern iterations of Penicillin, Insulin, and Hormonal Contraception eleventy zillion dollars forever an into perpetuity or voluntarily choose to fuck off and die. Otherwise, I’ll call them thieves and make farting sounds in their general direction.
This, I believe, is what the original pioneers of these medications would have wanted. Same goes for any kind of treatment for current and future epidemics. If an American thought of something first, Chinese people aren’t allowed to have it. And if a Chinese person thought of it first, no they didn’t, they’re not smart enough.
You missed one of my questions
If the US patent system is just, then should we pay reparations to Native Americans and black people?
If the US patent system is just, then Chinese companies could just buy the parents here and be the “inventors” of. Is that just to you? Is it just when Google does it?
if a Chinese person thought of it first, no they didn’t, they’re not smart enough. Yeah exactly, you’re bigoted
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There’s such a gulf of difference between a DJI drone and an American Predator or Reaper drone that I actually kinda feel bad for you for bringing DJI into the conversation.
Ever notice how Ukraine has to beg for support but Taiwan has a blank check against a far more capable potential enemy?
Just noticing that maybe Ukraine should start making semiconductors.
I think it’s also that opposing China is bipartisan, but the Republicans take bribes from Putin.
Taiwan does not have a blank check.
The US has backed away from any language of the martial agreements with Taiwan.
Have you noticed how aggressive China has been to Taiwan ? Or is it only bad if it is Japan being aggressive towards Taiwan ?
When was Japan last aggressive to Taiwan? Genuinely curious.
So does Israel. Israel receives checks for weapons and armaments they can resell,
Ukraine receives loans along with the associated debt. It’s a regional power thing for the US, treat certain friendly countries at strategic hotspots in such a way that they hold key industries or resources others have to rely on, creating a situation of mutual dependence and giving an incentive for other countries to also support them. Ukraine has Europe and NATO right beside it, so it’s much less on the priority list for the US.It also creates a bunch of problems, specially when it involves a country that’s borderline religious neocolonialism, and doesn’t work that well against large world and regional powers that are working together like China, Russia, or even Iran.
But Ukraine really does deserve better.
What a stupid fucking comment. How about you open your eyes bud? We have a lot of business with China, China isn’t posturing with war and crying about NATO expansionism and threatening to use nukes.
Get it yet? Probably not, so I’ll help you some more.
The US can build up the defenses of Taiwan because they have no active warzone/conflict. Taiwan isn’t wanting to strike inside Chinese territory. The US cannot give Ukraine everything they want without restriction (because they DO want to strike inside Russia, and rightly so) without triggering Russian escalation WHICH INCLUDES VARIOUS NUCLEAR WEAPONS.
When NUCLEAR WEAPONS are used, the rest of the world WILL get involved. NATO is not just being a jerk about things for fucks sake.
You’re not wrong…
Nations will certainly bend over backward to ensure access to strategic resources. Unfortunately for Ukraine, grain isn’t a highly demanded resource.
Finding some niche technology or product to specialize in would probably be a really good idea. They have experience with rocket engine manufacturing, though that’s not a huge market. I suppose they could always extend that to munitions manufacturing, it seems there’s always a market for that… Sigh…
Ukraine has had massive success with naval drones which I would imagine to translate very well to the defence of Taiwan as well.
The difference between hypersonic missiles and drones is interesting, too. Hypersonics are something a major nation state needs a years long development program to make. They have some inherent issues, like having a limited maneuvering budget without burning themselves up. The response time of defenses are shorter, but existing Patriot missile batteries have managed to deal with them to at least some success.
Meanwhile, Ukraine attaches bombs to some fancy RC planes and sinks much of the Black Sea Fleet. IIRC, they’re up to something like half of it by tonnage, and Russia likely has no way to replace some of the larger Soviet-era ships.
Apparently, there’s more than one way to skin a cat. And some of the ways don’t cost billions in R&D.
Millions of inexperienced soldiers stuck on ships facing thousands of drones coming from all directions -
I…don’t want to imagine the absolute, pure horror that would be.
The fact that the two current superpowers are actually gearing up for war with each other makes my blood freeze.
This would cause global suffering on par with World War 2. Except in World War 2, most battles were still fought primarily with glorified armored tractors, rifles, shovels and horse-drawn artillery.
Oh, and now, there’s the added danger of a nuclear escalation that will literally bomb us all back into the stone age.This is nothing different to what they’ve been doing for the last 20 years
All of this is a lot of flexing, there’s no reason for China to cause massive conflict with the US because both parties would lose in some major ways. Essentially it would just waste resources between the two nations and permanently kneecap both of their economies.
Not to mention that I don’t think any nation is in a position to challenge the US anywhere in the near future. A minor conflict could break out, sure, but an actual war where the US takes the gloves off is not a good idea for anybody.
Exactly this. Somehow this position is one of my most controversial comments, and started some really good conversation.
It’s interesting because you seem to have focused a lot more on the actual Taiwan they’d be invading and less about the worldwide implications of doing so. For me, it’s a much different argument than most people think it is.
People state that the US is overdependent on China but forget that China is also dependent on Taiwan and China is also dependent on the US. For all of the saber rattling that both China and the US do at each other, they’re humongous trade partners and losing that partnership is the #1 reason that neither of them have any interest in actually starting a war. Similar to what Russia does, they will both do as much with words as they can to show power but never go further.
Then when you get to actually talking about Taiwan, it’s kind of irrelevant in regards to geography and taking it over. China has the resources to do that and Taiwan vs China is a losing (but costly) battle if the US isn’t involved. But when the US is involved, they lose. China has a large military and tons of traditional firepower but they don’t have battle tested hardware even. Meanwhile the US eats breathes and sleeps war and is extremely well funded.
So I like your breakdown and I think you’re entirely right but the issue is just so much simpler than people make it in my opinion. Now if another conflict prompted it, China might try to take Taiwan as a distraction, but that’d be the only scenario and we’d already be at war.
I agree with you on all points. My original post was directed at the RAINING DOWN HELLFIRE FROM DRONES rhetoric in the article and tailored my response to that AO.
I’ll paste it into here when I find it but I have a better breakdown of what’s probably happening instead.
Edit: I found the comment, however in the thread for the original coment I linked, a lot of people came in to provide really apt and considered context. I really love this aspect of Lemmy when people get together to discuss and share their knowledge on different topics. Many good points were raised.
Agreed and I touched a little bit on that in the last edit of my original comment.
I really think this is Xi pushing a lame duck president in an election year to get a little more coastal boarders. Also showing internally that the recent purges have been effective and that he can now posture with a show of strength.
This could be setting the groundwork for their 2030 plans but I don’t think this is an immediate threat on the level of the general media coverage. I mean look at all the engagement it’s generated here.
Wow! I, for one, will plan to be both shocked and awed by the ‘hellscape’.
Now with 50% more A.I !
More like defending TSMC… large majority of all high-tech silicon is made in Taiwan. If that foundry burns, the consequences would be astronomical. The possible consequences are already at a point they could make threats via self-sabotage.
If the hellscape thing comes to pass the structural integrity of any building is probably going to be the least of anyone’s care. Like a drone walk is not going to make people happy about going into a clean room for an entire shift. That will end shortly.
The much more possible possibility is that the plant moves to the US with newer machines.
There are no newer, or any other machines at the level of the tsmc plant. They cost multiple billions for each production line and require parts that take ages to produce (like zeiss mirrors for millions a piece)
It’s not that bad actually. The various mirrors are just some of the most important components. But it’s not the gating item.
My faith that this plan will succeed is a bit shaken by the other news story about the Navy today: the Navy ran out of pants.
We can’t seem to produce enough pants for our sailors and marines, but we expect to produce “thousands upon thousands” of fancy new drones? Well I do hope it all works out, but uh, I guess I’ll just keep my fingers crossed.
You sure they are simply choosing to not wear pants?
I mean, I’m not making any assumptions…
I’m not super knowledgeable about drone operators, but I don’t think you need pants to fly drones.
Talk about a low drag high speed operator
The folks making pants and the ones making drones are not the same
Manager: Rodney, Rodney what the fuck are you doing?
Rodney: Sweating as he tries to complete a tripple stitch on a pair of Navy Standard Issue Pants. Sorry boss, these pants gotta get shipped today!
Manager: Fuck the pants, Rodney. These MQ-9 Reapers gotta be finished and out the door by noon. gestures to massive pile of weaponry and metal in the corner The Chinese are gonna invade Taiwan!
Rodney: puts pants down Sure boss!
Well, let’s hope.
but we expect to produce “thousands upon thousands” of fancy new drones?
I think Taiwan can absolutely help support the US in producing thousands upon thousands of new drones.
We aren’t gonna produce those drones. We don’t have the infrastructure, China does. When we decided to ban Chinese made drones there were no one capable of replacing them in the consumer space. The ones left in the Blue UAS program pulled out of consumer markets. DJI dominates and that’s just in the consumer market. I wouldn’t sell the Chinese short in military drones.
Where do you think our current drone fleet came from? A hint: it wasn’t China.
The Cherokee Nation. I’ve actually done some work in the drone industry and I know that the Cherokee Nation build drones for Lockheed Martin. The Native Americans are not the American government so they can bypass some tariffs and other legal issues the US government faces with regards to import export. We still don’t have the infrastructure of China. We don’t have the manufacturing base in this area that China has. Don’t look down on China, they are innovative in drone technology. The companies in the US needs to get a innovative as the Chinese one but for that we need the same support from our government that the Chinese get to create the missing infrastructure that China has.
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That would require corporations to pay for American labor protections and taxes. So yes, we absolutely can and should, I’m not confident however that we will.
Well, DJI has the market cornered in quadcopter/multirotor drones. But what do they have with wings?
From the sound of it, this program is also quite interested in vehicles with longer loiter times and heavier payload capacity (winged aircraft). And they’re explicitly interested in seeding smaller companies with funding that would allow them to realize whatever innovations they may have and scale up. So with that in mind, it may be irrelevant that DJI dominates the multirotor drone market.
I guess we’ll find out in time.
The problem is neither of us know what the true capabilities between the two nations are. Obviously they keep that intel under lock and key and if either of us had inside knowledge and revealed that knowledge then the respective nation would come after us.
I find these discussions on military capabilities to be pointless on Lemmy and Reddit. No one actually knows and if they did they can’t say anything, there are too many people pretending to know what they’re talking about speaking with authority but are making everything up, and though you can gain some insight on a nations capabilities by paying attention to news and media that focus on military technology no one actually cites those sources.
Protecting Taiwan would be one of the most important tasks to accomplish.
Archive link here https://archive.is/kJlQW
China has no incentive to invade Taiwan. Geographically there’s nowhere but the heavily fortified western side of the island to land an amphibious assault. And even if you get a beach head there, it’s not Normandy, there’s sheer fucking cliffs, and then MORE mountains. China doesn’t have the Navy to setup a blockade or the carriers to setup an air bridge and if they did it’ll be Antoniv all over again.
The Taiwan government isn’t trying to unify the “two Chinas” anymore as Chiang Kai-shek and Sun Li-Jen have been dead a long while. The PLA or what’s left of it does not want control over mainland China and the current ruling Taiwanese government are happy to create 60% of the worlds super conductors. In fact they have Thermite and other destructive charges setup in the fabs in case china invades. There’s other fabs in the US or EU they can spin up with engineers and personnel that will likely be swept away by the US or Japan or South Korea.
This is saber rattling from the Pentagon and a distraction from Pooh Bear’s own internal problems. Nobody wants war in Taiwan most of all the Chinese.
However it would be very profitable for defense contractors. Hey, I should write an article about that.
Edit: sorry if it wasn’t clear in my tone, I do not like China and do not support their foreign policy. People in Taipei and across Taiwan are very very worried. And likely as not it’s so Xi can feel big after the Olympics. It’s terrible that they’re taking advantage of such global strife to pull this again. With Iran and Israel playing brinkmanship, the genocide in Palestine, the ongoing war in Ukraine… A German naval vessel is waiting for the go ahead to cross international waters.
Edit 2: I have sprinkled references to support my points throughout my comment to hopefully form a cogent thought from the word salad I originally wrote. Further reading for those interested:
https://www.cfr.org/article/why-china-would-struggle-invade-taiwan
China has no incentive to invade Taiwan.
I hope you are right, but your post is giving me big “herr Hitler is not going to invade Poland” vibes.
There isn’t the same political pay off at home in China that Hitler got. Chinese economy is not in the same dire straights and there is no economic benefit as China would start a war with 70% of their trading partners.
Also unlike when Hitler invaded, the EU and the US is already building up arms because of the bullshit Putin is pulling right now.
When I get to my computer tomorrow I’ll drop some links. But this is sounding more like North Korea and less like Nazi Germany.
Tbf other countries were starting to build up prior to the start of ww2, it’s not like they suddenly started the war effort in 1939. Afaik the only reason the war didn’t start when other countries were annexed is because Britain and France wanted to build up their armies first and Poland just became the breaking point.
So on that timeline we should’ve already been at WW3 for about a year now
We might already be.
WW2 wasn’t yet a world war in 1939 either.Both Ukraine and Gaza have the potential to spiral into wars involving players on all continents.
Agreed and I touched a little bit on that in the last edit of my original comment.
I really think this is Xi pushing a lame duck president in an election year to get a little more coastal boarders. Also showing internally that the recent purges have been effective and that he can now posture with a show of strength.
This could be setting the groundwork for their 2030 plans but I don’t think this is an immediate threat on the level of the general media coverage. I mean look at all the engagement it’s generated here.
Pooh bear found out his missiles were fueled with water, and some of his launch silos never existed. He did a purge of the military and got real quiet about launching an invasion
Now they’re showing their special forces threading lines of needles and riding electric skateboards.
I’m not saying China wouldn’t invade Taiwan, but I really don’t think they’re going to in the near future
The missile engines were being used to heat up pot noodle on cold days, so I completely understand the motivation of those remote PLA Airman
To a more serious point, likely as not they’ll try a quarantine and gauge response.
They did just get access to the shared river between NK and Russia and got permissions from Russia to dredge it to give them easier access to the Sea of Japan.
Likely as not this is Xi consolidating power again and setting the groundwork to better support and enforce their shipping lanes. I mean the Belt and Road initiative wasn’t approved by Russia till recently. But with the war in Ukraine and the sanctions that followed Russia is leaning on China a lot more and Xi is taking full advantage of it.
Or how we were all convinced that Russia wouldn’t invade until it actually happened
Pasted from my response to another post
Russia invaded Ukraine twice before there was a war, Putin took Georgia before that, very little international response happened. It wasn’t until Ukraine had the Revolution of Dignity in 2014 before anyone was even concerned about Ukraine and when Zelensky was elected, a comedian, Putin thought he could have his special operation and assassinate Zelensky.
There’s none of that in the last 30 years with Taiwan. Unlike Ukraine in 2015; Taiwan has very strong mutual defense treaties with Japan and the US, strong trading partners in the EU. There’s a German Naval Vessel standing by to join the fight
The position the US holds about Taiwan and making it rain “hellfire from drones” tells you all you need to know. They just last month let Ukraine use HIMARS in Russia, and Ukraine took Kursk.
Chinese troop numbers are down, their equipment isn’t doing well in Ukraine and their pilots are using solid fuel from missiles to cook hot noodle on cold days.
Now if this article was about the Chinese “third navy” I’d understand the rhetoric but it isn’t.
There are rumors that Xi has been overthrown and is now only a figurehead.
I believe those have been debunked if I’m inferring that you’re referencing the most recent of such rumors.
Let me know if that’s not what you heard as I’m happy to be corrected.
Nobody is saying invading Taiwan would be a good idea, the CCP has been very consistent in stating that they are willing to do it though.
I personally thought Ukraine wouldn’t be invaded by Russia because it would make no sense and go against Russia’s interests. Turns out I was half right, but it happened anyway.
So let’s hope that it’s all sabre rattling and continue planning for the worst.
Russia invaded Ukraine twice before there was a war, Putin took Georgia before that, very little international response happened. It wasn’t until Ukraine had the Revolution of Dignity in 2014 before anyone was even concerned about Ukraine and when Zelensky was elected, a comedian, Putin thought he could have his special operation and assassinate Zelensky.
There’s none of that in the last 30 years with Taiwan. Unlike Ukraine in 2015; Taiwan has very strong mutual defense treaties with Japan and the US, strong trading partners in the EU. There’s a German Naval Vessel standing by to join the fight
The position the US holds about Taiwan and making it rain “hellfire from drones” tells you all you need to know. They just last month let Ukraine use HIMARS in Russia, and Ukraine took Kursk.
Chinese troop numbers are down, their equipment isn’t doing well in Ukraine and their pilots are using solid fuel from missiles to cook hot noodle on cold days.
Now if this article was about the Chinese “third navy” I’d understand the rhetoric but it isn’t.
Yeah that’s a good point, the situation is not really all that analogous. I certainly hope you’re right. Maybe they can even stop harrassing Taiwan one day too.
That unfortunately is never likely to stop. I wish Xi would let it go.
He’s facing internal struggles of looking weak to the military. https://www.businessinsider.com/china-military-loyal-communist-party-purges-xi-jinping-speech-2024-7?op=1
I mean fuck they just got a command structure. Until the 2000s the generals instructed the soldiers and the soldiers taught the generals.
They can’t even project enough power in Africa to keep Chinese nationals safe, look up Central African Republic Chinese Nationals if you like.
I think you’re right on this one, I don’t hold out much hope for it but I can dream. For now the status quo will have to do.
Keep on dreaming friend and may they be pleasant ones. It’s a curse that we live in such interesting times.
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All nations agree that Taiwan is and always was part of China?
Yes.
Not a single government (not even Taiwan’s government) has ever said that Taiwan is not part of China.
I understand why you’d think otherwise if you get your understanding of the situation from online discourse. But here’s the thing: Most online discussion is coming from people who don’t know what they’re talking about.
And not a single government, not even Peru’s government, has ever said that Peru is not part of Swaziland.
Strangely, that’s not the same thing as all nations agreeing that Peru is part of Swaziland.
From 1945 to 1971, China was represented at the United Nations by the government in Taipei, with almost universal recognition. It would be very odd for any country to say that Taipei (and hence Taiwan) was not part of China at that time.
And if Taiwan was part of China from 1945 to 1971, surely it must be part of China now, because there have been no significant political changes in China since then.
Both the government in Beijing and the government in Taipei recognize Taiwan as being part of China. Each government claims to be the rightful government of all of China, including Taiwan. (However, the government in Taipei only has effective control over Taiwan and a few islands, while the government in Beijing has control of the mainland.)
Since 1979, the USA has had a policy of “strategic ambiguity” where they do not say that Taiwan is part of China, but they clearly recognized Taiwan as part of China up until then, and they have not made any statements changing that position.
if it’s ambiguous, how can they recognize it as part of China at the same time? That’s the opposite of ambiguous.
You expect people just believe that shit? Damn. Impressively wrong on both sides of the analogy.
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Wouldn’t the separatists be mainland china? Honest question. Like there’s continuity from the former china government to Taiwan’s, the people’s republic is the newest entity.
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I’m not talking about who’s ‘rightful ruler’ or not. The roc was a country and the communist revolution took a part of the territory and made it into the prc (a new country) while the roc still exist in the remaining territory. That’s the definition of a secession. I was just pointing out one of the holes in your analogy.
Now that you took the time to write that I have a couple of questions. Was the white terror an ethnic cleansing? I might be under informed on the matter but I don’t know anything about any ethnic groups targeted in particular. Your last paragraphs imply that the sovereignty and territorial questions about Taiwan and the People’s Republic aren’t a settled matter for the whole world (except maybe the prc). Are there many voices claiming for the Taiwan government to be the ruler of mainland China anymore? Or any territorial ambitions other than staying an independent island nation?
Chiang Kai-shek’s claim to a legitimate ROC government are tenuous at best. He basically used his position to launch a right wing coup against the unity government and attempted to purge it of all left wing elements. Claiming legitimacy when you’ve basically used force to try and take full control over a government is par for the course for fascism. That’s why I don’t believe the CPC demonizes the ROC prior to Chiang Kai-shek. They still holds Sun Yat-sen, a key founder of the ROC, in high regard.
Also, IIRC most of the dissidents in Taiwan were mostly people who lived there or who were indigenous to the Island prior to the KMTs arrival. As such, the white terror did involve suppression of a Taiwanese ethnic identity.
I don’t disagree with the points you’re making in terms of military explanations.
I think the U.S. definitely wants to provide Taiwan with all manner of drones, as they can use that as a test bed for their own drone efforts. Even if it’s unlikely to actually occur, I think the specter of China getting involved militarily is an opportunity the U.S. is keen to exploit that will allow them to deploy and test drone systems on the dime of one of their strategic partners, rather than solely at their own expense.
But I also think that China is working on a diplomatic/economic win in Taiwan.
With the recent passage of the … oh, I can’t remember the name of it … the law that allows China to arrest people who criticize China online that will apply to Chinese citizens who live/work in Taiwan, or to Taiwanese citizens who have reason to visit China, it means that there is a pall of fear over criticizing China in Taiwan.
If folks can’t criticize China, it skews the narrative in Taiwan. A few more laws like that, some social/election influence campaigns (in the U.S. and Taiwan), and I could see a gradual undoing of Taiwanese-U.S. relations, and perhaps even a voluntary joining of PRC in a few decades.
I’m sure, though, that the U.S. is doing the same thing in Taiwan, to try to keep the relationship tight. So it sorta comes down to who can do the best data mining, influence campaigning, and crafty diplomacy.All armchair speculation on my part, but that’s how I think it’ll shake out. Less of a military conquest, and more of a cultural conquest.
My response was targeted against the Hellfire against a Chinese Invasion referenced in the orginal article, so that was absolutely militarily driven and focused.
However the one thing the dictatorship of Xi can do is have a long form plan of unified direction and consistent rhetoric. That’s something the US has been incapable of the last 12 years unfortunately.
So yes, China is much better at looking at economic targets and wielding soft power. If Taiwan does fall, it’ll be diplomatically, with very if any military intervention. I believe the law you’re referencing came out of the CCP Central Committee Sixth Plenum referenced below.
However I would also look at the CCP’s 2030 plan and recent military purges as direct support for a military response to be essentially posturing, for now.
China has no incentive to invade Taiwan
Thank you for explaining you know nothing about geopolitics right at the start.
Care to offer your views?
- China has an old ideological incentive
- Xi might want an invasion to hide his own failures
- China wants TSMC ** TSMC might be rigged to explode, but China might be willing to go, anyway, in a “if we can’t have it, nobody can” strategy
- China doesn’t want an unsinkable aircraft carrier in range of its mainland
- China wants to extend its territorial waters and exclusive economic zone ** Which itself has implications for how the US can deploy carriers around China
You can argue that none of the benefits add up to the cost of an invasion–I would tend to agree–but saying China has no incentive is just dumb. In particular, ideological reasons may be weighted much higher by Chinese leaders than any outsider could guess.
Thanks for the reply.
I’m quoted using such black and white language from my original post so I’ll have to leave it there even though I know it smacks of smug rhetoric, but I said it so it’ll stay.
I do have counter points to each of your points in my original post except for the unsinkable aircraft carrier, however pardon the pun but that ship has sailed. But you know that as you referenced the killswitches TSMC has.
That last point I think we agree. With the recent purges in the military and a lame duck president with a pending election that’s exactly what I think is happening here. Especially since they’re not really moving any of their “third navy” into formation for defilade and screening so it is still, as it stands, a loud and frightening bluff.
China doesn’t have the Navy to setup a blockade
Do you have sources that backs up that claim? Just because they didn’t do so in a sabre rattling exercise doesn’t mean they can’t. Afaik their navy is actually quite capable, and actually it’s the largest in the world by number of vessels.
The sources are in my original post.
Basically it boils down to the US Navy has been built up to directly interidict, challenge, and if need be destroy Chinese vessels. The US Navy is and has been intentionally building naval forces to counteract Chinese naval practices and doctrine. Numbers in naval battles aren’t really all that important. Now it’s mostly down to sigint, jamming, and other interuptive measures.
Pages 51 and 52 will be of direct interest to my point https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/RL/RL33153/280
I can’t find a source that backs up your claim that the Navy can’t blockade Taiwan, can you point it out?
I edited the comment you replied to with more sources and here is the original link that is in the post
It’s second from the bottom in the original post
Is it safe to say that the intent behind your first post was that China has no reason to invade Taiwan in part due to American protections? I originally interpreted it as China has no reason to invade Taiwan, so we should spend less.
Yes, China has very little economic or political incentive to invade Taiwan and zero military benefit. They only really have an ideological incentive that they use in messaging internal and external to bolster the PLA and shows of strength. I think current spending levels are sufficient to counter the PLA and PLAN. I think we should refocus on smaller asymmetric munitions in the DMO and also smaller more mobile platoon command structures. So redirect funding away from large ships and to more disruptive forces, especially for the USMC
https://news.usni.org/2024/02/29/report-to-congress-on-navy-distributed-maritime-operations-concept
To further clarify it is American, Japanese and EU protections as there is still a German Naval Vessel on standby to join in the fight and how the Japanese are ramping up their “Defense” Forces.
Thank you for taking the time to go in depth on your claim. Have a good day!
Ultimately, if China truly has no incentive to invade Taiwan, why not just recognize it as a sovereign nation? They haven’t, they likely won’t, and that to me is enough evidence to show that there is reason to invade - we as armchair strategists simply don’t know them.
Does China benefit from the current arrangement in any way that would motivate them to keep the status quo?
Yes absolutely they benefit from the current status quo.
First is the nebulous status Taiwan has in global politics the Chinese government uses it as a smoke screen for all sorts of complaints and a great source for demanding concessions and justifying their actions. Especially against the" colonial powers in the West that are oppressing the Taiwanese."
spoiler
Which there is colonial oppression from the west but I wouldn’t look to Taiwan as a victim in that regard, South America and Central Africa however are a different story. Where the PRC have their own history of colonial actions but that’s not the topic of this comment.^
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/ce8dy437pdno
For the PLA there’s an outsized boogyman with Taiwan that they can beat the war drums for to drum up support for increased military presence. They have war games frequently, almost every year, to counter the “threat of the US and their hold over the poor Chinese bretheren on Taiwan”
Much like how politicians aren’t often incentivised to fix the potholes in the roads or solve other simple issues, what will they campaign on next year if the roads and bridges are fixed this year? The PLA use Taiwan to justify arms buildups and Naval investments
Note these exercises are from a year ago and you’ll see a long history of such actions if you look for them https://www.nbr.org/publication/the-plas-strategic-deterrence-a-case-study-of-the-april-2023-exercises-toward-taiwan/
https://news.usni.org/2023/10/31/chinese-military-corruption-wont-slow-pla-expansion-panel-says
I didn’t think about that - I can see Taiwans benefit as a bargaining chip.
Yeah, as far as PRC external communications go, it’s usually 50/50 if they mean the exact opposite of what they’re saying. It’s a very very very complicated situation, however China gains a lot more from a separate Taiwan with a nebulous international status. The US and to a smaller extent Japan and the EU both benefit from a threatened Taiwan as well actually, as it is likely suppressing the price of TSMC.
https://www.ft.com/content/b452221a-5a82-4f5d-9687-093b9707e261
The US could do a lot for Taiwan if they were to have a unified and consistent message on the diplomatic status in Taipei. That would take away a lot of the grey area and would force China to present a direct and clear response. However that’s not in the best interests of American business who rely on cheap and exploitative labor in mainland China, and well as Smedley said, War is a Racket.
And even if you get a beach head there(on the West side), it’s not Normandy, there’s sheer fucking cliffs, and then MORE mountains.
Idk much about Taiwanese coastline, but your wiki article states:
The terrain in Taiwan is divided into two parts: the flat to gently rolling plains in the west, where 90% of the population lives, and the mostly rugged forest-covered mountains in the eastern two-thirds.
Yeah beach is heavily defended on the west side. Over watching those beaches are cliffs, behind those cliffs are mountains. The east side of the island, facing away from the PRC is just all mountains.
US SOF have trained Taiwanese forces to basically evac as many folk as possible and for the Taiwanese army to take up fighting positions in the mountains.
Look to Afghanistan or Switzerland or Vietnam to see how that tends to work out for the invading forces.
There’s a map in that link that shows the terrain.
https://www.businessinsider.com/us-green-berets-explain-how-they-train-taiwan-troops-2021-10?op=1
Note take special care when researching this as the Taiwanese minister of defense was misquoted earlier this week. Taiwan still only hosts rotating SOF when PLA exercises are active and the US and Taiwan have their joint training/exercises. There is not and hopefully will not be a permanent US base on Taiwan.
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lol who is trying to claim most of south china sea again and harassing their neighbours?
Explain the comment on racism? Pooh Bear is not anti sino to my knowledge
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Censorship_of_Winnie-the-Pooh_in_China
Let me know if that link doesn’t work for you. 🧸😗
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Ah, good. That’s all I needed to hear.
https://www.smithsonianmag.com/smart-news/why-censors-are-targeting-winnie-the-pooh-china-180964075/
I don’t know if this is what they’re talking about, but pretty much the entirety of the Chinese government elite is made up of Han Chinese despite there being a bunch of other ethnic groups. And, of course, there’s the ethnic groups that the Chinese government severely oppresses within their borders like the Uyghurs and the Tibetans.
How does Pooh Bear relate to the Han people?
The only time I hear the racism card pulled about Pooh is when it’s coming from the party line. There is a history of that being used by the government or those parroting party talking points. It’s the logic they initially used to get the references pulled internationally where they don’t have as much control of media.
I stand with the Uyghur and Tibetan people. The complex in Xiajang needs to be internationally condemned until it is demolished and a monument erected in the memory of those interned there, sometimes until the end of their lives.
https://apnews.com/article/business-religion-china-only-on-ap-f89c20645e69208a416c64d229c072de
Hmm… how does the Han Chinese dictator of China relate to the ethnonationalist policies of the Chinese government, which promotes the Han over other ethnic groups and outright oppresses other ethnic groups…
You know, I’ll have to ponder that for a while and get back to you on it because you’re right, I just don’t see a direct line.
You still haven’t referenced Pooh Bear. I share your confusion.
Sorry… your issue here is that there is not a direct link between A. A. Milne’s Winnie the Pooh character and a Chinese ethnonationalist state?
Can the USA just not get entangled in more wars?
I would like this money going to repair local infrastructure, instead of this bothersome corporate welfare that helps keep prices high ( I know it’s a jump from a to b but it’s true in my mind)
I mean in this case it’s preventing a war and securing your main chip supply.
Until Intel produces in the US, the way this is going looks grim…
I’m naive because I only see protecting big business with no trickle down effect to me and my community.
And, quite honestly, any increased tensions with China takes money out of each household here, due to increased prices.
Sure, this is a selfish view, but I’m really tired of eternal war when I see a lack of money in my rural area.
I don’t think you’re naive for having that perspective. I think a lot of Taiwanese people likely feel the same way. A majority of voters in Taiwan voted for parties that want to try and reduce tensions diplomatically. They’re stuck between a rock and hard place though because first past the post voting meant a party more aligned with the US won the presidency. Unfortunately for Taiwan, it’s in the US’s geopolitical interest to act as if there are no diplomatic solutions to tensions between with the mainland. As such, I think the majority of the people in all the countries involved lose out.
China sees Taiwan as China. There are no “diplomatic solutions”. China is only satisfied when Taiwan belongs to them.
This is the same moronic bullshit like not wanting to deliver weapons to Ukraine because war is bad, it raises tensions or whatever.
The way to lower tensions is for Russia to stop their attack war, if Ukraine gives in there will be no Ukraine afterwards.
If China wants reduced tensions all they have to do is forfeit their claim that Taiwan belongs to them. If Taiwan gives in there won’t be any Taiwan afterwards.
Is this so difficult to understand?
The US backs Taiwan because you’d have no more computers (without Chinese backdoors) otherwise.
Well the majority of people in Taiwan are not happy with the US’s military first approach and would in fact prefer diplomacy. You can’t just foreclose the possibility of diplomacy because of your preconceived expectations that the PRC is intransigent. You can’t just assume that will accept nothing less than the political subjugation of Taiwan. Doing that just makes war a more likely outcome and the people of Taiwan seem to understand that. The US is just pushing for a military forward strategy because it serves their interests and not the interests of the Taiwanese people.
The US is only there because Taiwan wants them there. If they have an election and elect a party who is against US involvement they can mostly just kick them out. But right now they are pro US.
Dude, they have their fucking chip factories rigged to self-destruct in case China invades. They don’t trust China even a tiny bit, peaceful solution my ass.
It’s not black and white like that! Saying Taiwan is pro US is incredibly reductive. It’s true that the majority of Taiwanese people welcome US support. The majority of them also think that the military first way in which the US is supporting them is going to push Taiwan towards war, something they do not want. A majority also voted for parties that prefer to find diplomatic solutions to the tensions with the PRC.
Also, Taiwan doesn’t have to trust the PRC to for a diplomatic solution to be possible. Rarely is diplomacy solely based on trust. I genuinely believe they could find some sort of compromise that is amenable to all parties. However both Taiwan’s current president, elected with only a plurality of the vote, and the US are not working to find a permanent diplomatic solution and are therefore escalating tensions against the will and interests of the Taiwanese populace. This isn’t good for anyone except the US which wants to use Taiwan as a pawn to contain its adversary, the PRC.
This is completely off topic. But what is your stance on the US continuing to supply arms, material and support to Israel with no attenuation in sight?
Against it, Israel behaves like a Nazi state (and I say that as an Austrian). The whole situation there is ultra fucked though. Like having someone on live TV say they are okay with raping prisoners (“they deserve it”), their only problem with it is that it’s not put into law that torturing and raping them is okay.
Israel wants the land for themselves, so they’ll only be satisfied by killing or moving everyone away (and they are going at it like absolute bastards).
Palestinians just want to be left alone / get seen as a valid state with rights. And have secured water/food/power.
Here is the problem: Israel has done so much shit, even if they stop immediately, open borders, agree Palestine is its own country with rights, … there are so many Palestinians out for blood who want revenge. So what will happen? Someone in Hamas lashes out, new terror act, back to square one. Hamas is useful for Israel, receive one terror act, return by bombing half a city block, it’s a nice excuse.
Obviously I don’t have a solution for it, but stopping to give Israel money/weapons would be a good step.
Agreed on all points. Apartheid states anywhere they exist must be abolished.
It literally can’t, and I hate it.
All the people who down voted you, I bet not a single one would go fight in the war they want America to be a party to.
Dude. Don’t pretend to be bad now. Our best drones are regularly being shot down by goat herders. Lol.
Exciting new rendition of the “You’re about to find out why this country can’t afford healthcare” meme is about to drop.
What drones would that be? US drones very, very rarely are shot down.
I saw it in that interstellar documentary.
Wired Magazine - News Source Context (Click to view Full Report)
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https://www.wired.com/story/china-taiwan-pentagon-drone-hellscape/
Bad bot
yes… to “defend” Taiwan, LOL
Yes. Defend Taiwan from a Chinese invasion that threatens their sovereignty. One that is continuously threatened by China and one Taiwan actively prepares for.
Yes. Defend Taiwan from a Chinese invasion that threatens their sovereignty.
Yes. Defend Taiwan from a Chinese invasion that threatens
their sovereigntythe USA access to the main semiconductor manufacturer in the worldFIFY
Why not both!
Fair… But you really can’t have a democracy when it’s results depend entire on pleasing your modern day colonizer
Just look at South America
The US just want to be the next China for Taiwan…
That would be dumb. Taiwan is a better asset if they have an independent government that’s on the same page geopolitically. Australia bucked the USA’s geopolitical agenda, and they got couped.
It was just a little coup, as a treat.
Here’s some more disturbing supplemental reading
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pine_Gap
https://cybernews.com/resources/5-eyes-9-eyes-14-eyes-countries/
That would be dumb. Taiwan is a better asset if they have an independent government that’s on the same page geopolitically
Which is why the US wants to “defend democracy” there, that is clearly what I mean… they want a Taiwan that is subservient to the USA, not an independent Taiwan that would actually be independent
Australia bucked the USA’s geopolitical agenda
I don’t understand what “bucked” means in this context
In this context the Australian people voted for an administration that would no longer “co-operate” with the USA’s geopolitical aims, they “bucked”/rejected the agenda. The USA responded by pressing those in power to create a constitutional crisis and replace the administration.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/1975_Australian_constitutional_crisis
I guess my point is that America doesn’t engage in the same tactics as China does in regards to Taiwan, or that hemisphere, probably because of distance. The USA favors regime change over making a new colony.
Thanks for the info
That’s a complete load of shit and you know it.
no, you are right… track record shows USA is interested in defending other countries for the sake of freedom, liberties and the American way… not at all for self interest
Nobody said it wasn’t for self interest, it’s just nothing like the situation between Taiwan and China at all. Like not even close. I think you need to inform yourself on some regional history.
No country takes action based on moral grounds. They only take action for their self interest. This is international relations 101. Sometimes these align! Sometimes… not so much.
What Taiwan has done is made the “good” outcome (Taiwan remains free and independent) align with the US’s self interest (having computers and a tech based economy).
The US will always exert power over Taiwan, so will China. That’s just what great powers do. However, China doesn’t need to threaten an invasion to do this. There is no reason China can’t relinquish their claim on Taiwan and just build a casual trade relationship with Taiwan.
However, China doesn’t need to threaten an invasion to do this. There is no reason China can’t relinquish their claim on Taiwan and just build a casual trade relationship with Taiwan.
Not justifying China’s methods or intentions at all, but you know what you are claiming is impossible
The USA can (and has before) forbidden third parties to run businesses with other countries… As they have already done to China itself.
It would be completely naive for China to assume they won’t be cut off from the very valuable industry Taiwan has once the USA establishes itself as the sole/mayority buyer
Wake me up when CNN anchors start referring to Taiwan as “West Hawaii”
Huh? What do you think the nature of China and Taiwan’s relationship is?
Are we the baddies?
Maybe but that would be in spite of defending Taiwan not because of.
I’m not so sure. A majority of people polled in Taiwan disagreed with the US’s approach of a military forward strategy of ensuring Taiwan’s political independence. I believe the reasons the US has not pursued a diplomatic solution is largely because it wouldn’t serve their geopolitical interests. By pursuing a militaristic strategy, they’ve escalated the stakes at the expense of the Taiwanese people and I think Taiwanese people generally understand that.
There is no “diplomatic solution” with regards to Taiwan. As seen in Hong Kong. What China wants, China will take. (This is an acquisition strategy the US knows well too…) Right now a majority of Taiwanese prefer the status quo. That is de facto independence. That does not mean they’d be okay with more interference from China. (It also does not automatically mean they’ll be cool with a war of independence either)
There’s no diplomatic solution if the US decides there’s none to be had and doesn’t even try. Diplomacy fails at times but putting in a serious effort to resolve conflicts peacefully is almost always preferable to the hardships of war. Even if you think the PRC is belligerent it’s worth actually trying.
That’s why Taiwanese people prefer maintaining the status quo. To them it seems like the best of the bad options available to them as long as they have no control over what the PRC or US does.
“There’s no diplomatic solution if the US decides there’s none”… way to remove the agency of the Taiwanese people with one assertion. Well done.
The fact is that deterrence is a valid posture with which to meet a belligerent. And if the Taiwanese decided a rapprochement with China was the right choice there is nothing the US could do about it. But that is not what they want.
This is always the correct response in a system where food scarcity is a matter of economics and not supply. Some years we burn more corn than we feed folk with.
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😔
Is the ‘we’ you are referring to china? If so, then yes you are. Bunch of cry babies who can’t accept that Taiwan is not theirs and never was. The government of Taiwan predates their government.
I’m not sure you want to stake the validity of Taiwan’s independence on the fact that Chiang Kai-shek’s fascist dictatorship predates the PRC. lol
Sure sure, cause that freedom loving mao was such a benevolent leader. /s
I suggest you admit that the age of any particular government is irrelevant to its legitimacy before defending fascists. It’s not that hard.
They can’t wait to start another proxy war, this time with China. They are encircling China with military bases and outposts and then constantly harp on “China’s aggression”. Fucking disgusting.
Chinese aggression like ramming ships in international waters where they are making imperialistic claims to territory that doesn’t belong to them? Yeah.
And the many many ‘shipping ports’ they’ve built for poor nations with contracts that state they will gain control in the event they can’t pay. Just a coincidence all those ports are also capable of docking war ships.
Must be coincidental that China has a tendency to forgive foreign loans
Maybe read your article.
“China’s announcement did not specify the countries or the amount of loan forgiveness, but analysts say that since 2000, China has regularly forgiven loans that are nearing their end but have a small balance.”
China has regularly forgiven loans
Too easy, next
China
Too easy, next.
See what I did there? Any moron can cut a sentence to pretend to make an argument.
And checking out the global warming level to see if they can melt the ice cap so they can ship temy products via the northern seas? Yup
moron alert
Couldn’t possibly be because Taiwan’s TSMC plant holds significance… NO! It is instead all about proxy wars!! EnCiRcLeMeNt!!!
If any countries need to have an eye kept on them and a contingency plan for them should shit go south it’s fucking China and Russia.
List the number of wars, conflicts or proxy wars China was involved with the last 50 years. I wonder what it is about those people that makes you think they are so untrustworthy and dangerous? Like contrary to actual historical facts of who is dangerous and kills people and destroys countries.
Why?
Did you know that Trump was never actually President? Hillary was President and he whole time. She actually still is.
