Who’s winning POTUS? Will it be called on election night or drawn out? Congress? Etc

  • @lemmefixdat4u
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    118 minutes ago

    We won’t have a clear winner. No matter which candidate “wins”, there will be widespread allegations of voter fraud. There will be protests. Biden will declare a national emergency. What happens after that? I don’t know. But I am prepared for major social unrest.

    A large number of people from both major parties are absolutely unwilling to accept a win by the opposing candidate. I’ve never seen the country so divided.

  • @[email protected]
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    116 hours ago

    I’m in a swing state with an abortion measure on the ballot, and while all the polls claim it’s close, I’m not really sure they are properly accounting for the number of voters that have been activated by the possibility of enshrining pro-choice into the state constitution.

    These polling strategies are complex and a lot of thought goes into them, but they rarely can account for uncommon circumstances that increase voter turnout in local or state elections and how that will effect the national election.

    While this is entirely personal reexperience bias, I also wonder how effective these polls are at reaching a representative survey group. I know at least on my phone basically all survey calls and texts go to spam and I wonder if older, more conservative voters are getting overrepresented due to their likelihood of not having those kinds of spam filters in place.

  • Eugene V. Debs' Ghost
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    4 hours ago

    Thin narrow margin for Harris, several swing states are a new Florida of leaning and ballot counting taking forever. Then right wingers get upset, try to sue as they also then shoot local people for not sieg heiling Trump.

    Harris enters office in Jan, makes some statements of how this is horrid, says she’ll do something to help it, but won’t solve the issues that make people consider being fascists who shoot mosques.

    From there we’ll see the first 100 days of her term, and if the Senate and House are in favor, we might get some good bills in for a short term solutions to the long term diseases of American necrotic brain damage of conservatism.

    For most people, nothing changes. Anti-trans bills are still in place, putting abortion back will be near impossible, and police will still shoot first ask questions second. Maybe some debts are cleared, weed is maybe legalized finally, but the county is the same as it was under Biden.

  • @RangerJosie
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    96 hours ago

    Everyone worth less than 8 figures will lose.

    Little else will change. Regardless of figurehead.

  • IninewCrow
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    137 hours ago

    Whoever wins … the country will fight about the result for the next four years and completely obscure any reasonable debate or conversation about anything of importance like inflation, wealth inequality, war, the military industrial complex or creeping fascism.

    If America doesn’t get its act together during this election … it’s just taking another step towards becoming a failed state and will break apart within the next decade or two. But it won’t be a war or anything too dramatic … it will just look and sound like a never slapfest between shouting children and crying babies who threaten each other but never actually do anything except leave the room with all their toys.

  • @[email protected]
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    106 hours ago

    I’m almost positive Trump wins with how close all the swing states are now and how he’s improving in polling (what the actual fuck people?!) the closer we get to the election.

    I’m also almost positive we will not know for sure on election night as I absolutely expect R controlled states to drag their feet and declare “irregularities” that they need to investigate if they don’t like the way things are going.

  • @ultranaut
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    77 hours ago

    Impossible to say but Harris is winning the popular vote for sure. I think however it goes there’s going to be some chaos and violence, I wouldn’t be surprised if there’s blatant attempts by MAGA cultists to sabotage what they can and drag out the vote counting and electoral processes. Its probably going to be a shitshow, and possibly a horrorshow. I don’t expect it to be called on election night unless its a significant and obvious win, which currently seems very unlikely. I would be less surprised if there was a terrorist attack on election night than a clear and obvious conclusion to the election.

    Congress I think Dems are likely to outperform, the RNC is no longer what it was and doesn’t have the ground game they used to. All their money and resources have been sucked into the black hole of Trumps campaign.

  • @[email protected]
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    6 hours ago

    Harris by a landslide. I’m optimistic and am choosing to have faith in at least some of mankind.

    Trump is power hungry while simultaneously old and simple minded. I remember Jan 6. I followed live feeds throughout and immediately after. I watched Trump’s speech, the riot it caused. I watched Ashli Babbitt die on some guy’s go pro.

    I keep asking myself how in the hell Trump is even still in the running. What the fuck is wrong with his supporters?

    Please get out and vote Harris! Harris is the way forward. She’s not Trump but also SHE IS NOT BIDEN. We need women in power. Look what men have done <gestures broadly>. She happens to be a good one, of course a politician, but she’s won my confidence. Over Trump it was an easy win.

    • @JusticeForPorygon
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      66 hours ago

      I think she will win but I don’t think it will be a landslide. I hope so, but there’s a lot of stupid Americans that buy into Trump’s crap.

      • @[email protected]
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        6 hours ago

        a lot of stupid Americans that buy into Trump’s crap.

        True. Unarguably.

        Counterpoint though: There are a bunch of Americans that do not. I know many. I know Republicans that are voting Harris.

  • @WoodScientist
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    36 hours ago

    I think we’ll have a Dem trifecta after election night. I feel the even the nonpartisan polls have overcorrected in favor of Republicans after 2016, and since the overturning of Roe, polls have been underestimating Dem candidates.

    • @[email protected]
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      6 hours ago

      https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2024/08/28/key-things-to-know-about-us-election-polling-in-2024/

      According to some of the information in here they seem to be claiming we’re still overestimating Dem performance in presidential elections, but that midterm elections where Trump isn’t on the ballot are more accurate. :(

      Aside from that I think it is much more likely we end up with a Republican Senate. From what I understand this cycle is very unfavorable to us in that regard. A lot of Dems defending and less Republicans that can actually lose defending.

      • @WoodScientist
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        46 hours ago

        It’s certainly possible. The polls are showing it’s effectively a tossup. But my real theory is that things are fundamentally different after the death of Roe, and that the pollsters really don’t have a way to capture that. Yes, it is a harsh year for the Senate, but there are some dark horse races, namely Texas and Nebraska, that may really surprise us.

    • @[email protected]
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      16 hours ago

      I’ve been reading some discussions this week about fake polls claiming Republicans are winning to make Dems think there’s no point in voting. Apparently it was a technique used in a previous recent election? It would explain all the results I’ve seen in the last few days showing them with a strong lead, where a week or two ago other polls showed an even race. Doesn’t really matter though, everyone should remember that the only thing that counts is getting out and casting your vote no matter what the polls might suggest.

      • @WoodScientist
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        36 hours ago

        There have been a lot of Republican polls posted, part of their “flood the zone” strategy. But I think even the nonpartisan polls are underestimating Dem support a bit.