Summary
El Salvador ended 2024 with a record low 114 homicides, equivalent to 1.9 per 100,000 people, making it the safest country in the Western Hemisphere according to President Nayib Bukele.
The drop follows two years under a state of emergency aimed at eradicating gang violence, granting authorities sweeping powers but limiting civil rights.
Over 83,000 arrests have been made, though 354 detainees reportedly died in custody.
While criticized for human rights violations, Bukele’s crackdown has drastically improved security, boosting his popularity.
On the one hand, Bukele is basically installing an authoritarian dictatorship here, so can we even trust these numbers? And the real big fish criminals are probably in cahoots with the regime. And of course people are getting eaten up by an inhumane, classist system that is producing a lost generation. So fuck all that.
On the other hand however, the previous situation was indeed unlivable. It was like living in the purge every day, with people living under the thumb of petty gangsters. And I’m really struggling to come up with an example of a nation coming back from this kind of collapse without some kind of Terror, in the Jacobin sense.
Like, sometimes a state of exception, a state of emergency is actually justified, and the state needs to re-establish the monopoly on violence. If Claudia Sheinbaum went Bukele against the Cartels in the north for example, would she really not be justified?
definitely numbers to take with a grain of salt. but by accounts from people living there, the difference is noticable even if it’s not as high as what the government says. even tourism has had a huge uptick because people actually feel pretty safe going there now.
You can’t make an omelet without cracking a few eggs
you can’t make a tomlette without cracking a few Greggs
Easy when you toss people into a pit without due process. I wonder what the percentage is of innocent people rotting in those inhumane prisons they built. Not to mention that those prisons and form of justice will eventually be turned towards the next batch of “undesirables” in no time. Including his political opponents. This president can wear a backwards hat and act like he’s a man of the people, but he’s a wealthy nepo oligarch.
Edit: you’re a fool if you think this guy isn’t hiding the real numbers
He could be hiding the numbers, but the drop is near an order of magnitude from the peak.
Killings by police officers per 10 million population:
- United Kingdom - 0.5
- France - 5.5
- Canada - 18.6
- United States - 33
- El Salvador - 1703.8
Afaik the USA does not release official statistics for this because individual police precincts refuse to cooperate.
El Salvador: 1829.9
That’s number is Venezuela’s. El Salvador is 1703.8. Note the data is from 2017, 2 years before Bukele became president.
Thank you for the correction, much appreciated.
And yes, I am aware that it’s older data, but given that Bukele’s moves as president have consisted entirely of even harsher policing, I sincerely doubt that that number has gone lower.
Could it be that that number came from active warfare with the gangs (which have now been neutered)?
Syria’s numbers are literally from an active civil war, and they’re half of El Salvador’s.
So no, I don’t really feel like that holds water as a justification. Valid as context, yes, but there’s still no good reason for the number to be that high.
Also “Our country is really peaceful now that we’ve run out of people for cops to kill” doesn’t exactly sound like a paradise to me.
Yes, it’s why Bukele is popular. But we shouldn’t be holding it up as something to emulate.
Syria’s numbers are literally from an active civil war
Doesn’t that make their numbers immediately questionable? Especially since what level of policing do you even have during a civil war
Oh brother… so, what do you suggest? Go back to the old ways? How about we ask the majority of Salvadorians what they think?
“How about we ask the majority of Salvadorians what they think?”
When you say “the majority of Salvadorioans” are you including those who are currently imprisoned? If not, then it’s just a matter of imprisoning everyone who disagrees with those in charge…
There is no
warmurder inBa Sing SeEl SalvadorI have to wonder what their suicide rate is like, though.
From a Terry Pratchett book:
Murder was in fact a fairly uncommon event in Ankh-Morpork, but there were a lot of suicides. Walking in the night-time alleyways of The Shades was suicide. Asking for a short in a dwarf bar was suicide. Saying “Got rocks in your head?” to a troll was suicide. You could commit suicide very easily, if you weren’t careful.
are there enough people left outside of the salvadoran prison system to even engage in war? lol
“security”, as long as you won’t get arrested and imprisoned without a trial, because of a vague suspicion because you entered a shop which got robbed 3 hours ago and you just came there to buy some cheese. Ah well, better 10 innocent imprisoned than 1 guilty in the streets, right? Oh no, it’s El Salvador, Better 100 innocent imprisoned than 1 guilty in the street. Better safe then sorry!
So, go back to how it was before? Is that what you’re saying? There’s either this way, or the way it was before. Ask the people of El Salvador what they prefer.
I wonder if this is a bit of a false dichotomy. I don’t think you’ll find anybody that wants it “back how it was before”, but rather how it is going now but without all the collateral damage and arrests of innocent people.
That’s the thing. The reason El Salvador was so effective in eliminating crime is because they don’t care about imprisoning innocent people.
You can’t have the effectiveness without the collateral damage.
Which one is preferable? I don’t know. But you can’t eat the cake and have it too.
“Ask the people of El Salvador what they prefer.”
When you say “People of El Salvador” are you including those who are currently imprisoned? If not, then it’s just a matter of imprisoning everyone who disagrees with those in charge…
All Salvadorians I hear from say they are happy with the situation.
Selection bias no? You’re not exactly going to hear from the innocent person stuck in a jail without representation or due process.
Can’t really fault them. Not like it was the safest place to live before he became dictator
Please, tell us all how El Salvador should do it? Go back to the old ways?
In case you were wondering like I was:
A new report from the FBI shows that the U.S. homicide rate has come down from its pandemic peak. In 2022, the government agency counted 6.3 homicides per 100,000 of U.S. population, down from 6.8 in 2021 - the equivalent of a fall of around 6 percent.
https://www.statista.com/chart/31062/us-homicide-rate/
I live in a fucking third world country. Hopefully not for much longer.
By definition, if you live in the US, you live a country from the “first world” bloc (ie. The western bloc)
Please stop using the term “third world” to mean poor country
Seems like an insulting term is the perfect one to use for America.
Just say shithole.
Not specific enough.
Edit: How about “failed state?”
“State failed successfuly”
Not when it’s factually incorrect. There’s plenty of things wrong with America, no need to call it something it isn’t.
Only people on the Left, hardcore liberals are complaining about the job he’s doing. Because you know, low life scum criminals deserve to be treated with dignity.
Good.
Say that to the innocents in those prisons without due process
While there are no doubt some innocents who got caught up; it has been shown time and again that the fastest and most efficient way to deal with wide spread gangs that have essentially taken over a country is massive arrests of anyone even remotely related to them.
It can turn violence filled hell-holes into safe communities within months, and the people know it. There’s a reason Argentinians and El Salvadorians have massive approval for their government right now; because it worked. People are free to walk on the street without fear of getting shot. For those who lived in fear for so long, a few false positives is a small price to pay for locking up practically every criminal overnight.
“Few”? You actually have nothing to back that up. Nothing. You have no idea if 1% or 5% or 10% or 50% or 80% are innocent. No idea. The police has no idea. Nobody has any idea and nobody seems to care.
The state eats up anyone who has a gang “vibe” (ie is a working class young man) without even a plan for some eventual trial and due process.
And yes, Terror has results here, but Bukele has not described what an exit from the state of exception will look like. Will there be actual trials in half a year, in 10 years? Nobody knows. Just praise the dear leader.
Once state monopoly in violence has been re-established, you need to re-establish rule of law, otherwise you’ve just replaced tyranny by gangs with tyranny by the state.
While there are no doubt some innocents who got caught up
This ends all my support for his mode and efforts. Even a single innocent is beyond unacceptable and proof your system is fucked.
Arguably a false positive prison rate that is lower than the old innocent murder victim rate is still a net improvement. No system is perfect, and even inaction has an associated cost.
You’re saying this from the luxury of a stable country. If the same thing were tried where you live, it would be horrific and wrong, because those actions aren’t warranted in a stable country. They only become acceptable when crime and violence have become so deeply rooted that it’s impossible to tackle them with normal means.
Imagine late stage cancer. It’s beyond the ability to get out with surgery. Instead, more drastic measures are required such as chemo or radiation therapy. This kills the cancer, but also kills some surrounding cells. It’s necessarily destructive because the cancer has spread too far to fix with less invasive measures. Imagine someone dismissing those treatments as barbaric because “even a single non-cancerous cell dying is unacceptable”. Meanwhile the person dying from cancer doesn’t really give a shit, they just want to be free from cancer.
You don’t have a single clue how bad things were in those countries before. You didn’t go outside, even in the daytime. Nearly every business was held hostage by gangs. Seeing dead bodies was a common occurrence. If you got robbed, or raped, or killed, too bad; there was essentially zero justice to be found or had. For those living under those conditions for years, the price for safety is well worth it.
You’re opposed because of the innocents who might be in jail? Where is your concern for the innocents just outright murdered due to unchecked crime?
If the same thing were tried where you live, it would be horrific and wrong
USA is among the states with highest proportion of people in cages. El Salvador has only doubled the USA numbers. In both cases, yes, it’s horrific and wrong.
Also the argument that extreme oppression is ok for others but not for “us” is grossly overprivileged.
You’re saying this from the luxury of not an over crowded cell because all you did was be outside at the time a government truck pulled over and abducted a group of random people at gun point.
Yes it sounds great to say things when you’re not the one suffering the consequences.
What if more innocents would be suffering worse fates had the government not stepped in with their current tactics?
Yes, terrible oppression is most often based on imaginary arguments.
So you’ll trade one innocent life for two?
And who are you to decide who’s lives?
I mean, you are also trading 2 lifes for 1 life. Indecision has consequences as well, so you have to do a tradeoff.
I was asking you what you think.
It seems like you’re the one who’s saying it’s preferable for 2 innocents to be punished by gangs vs. 1 innocent being punished by the state. Is this how you feel, yes or no?
If you’re afraid to answer this question, it’s because you’re insecure and you know how stupid it would look to say you’d prefer more innocent people to suffer at the hands of gangs.
Whatever comforts you
Okay. It’s better for fewer innocents to suffer at the hands of the state than it is for more innocents to suffer at the hands of gangs.
You can change your stance going forward, since you’re basing it off of whatever comforts me.
What do you think should have been done instead?
Ditch the USD and kick out the colonizers… Too bad it’s also a recipe for imperial invasion.
(Nobody has been laughing about their buying bitcoin lately…)
As much as I feel for innocent’s, the situation in El Salvador was bad: https://images.app.goo.gl/WWrXq7TXQWvqnuaV8
I feel like as harsh and authoritarian as Bulakes plan has been - ignoring mass violence on your people impacts a much greater magnitude of innocenta
Gotta raise up education and society at large though, can’t just toss everyone in jail
Well, if anything, Bukele actually could and did toss everyone in jail.
