What began as the Musk-Trump rift over the so-called “Big Beautiful Bill” has expanded into a full on revolt between the GOP’s ascendant libertarian, anti-war faction and the big-spending, business-as-usual, pro-Israel crowd that many have historically identified as “neoconservative.”
Domestically, if Trump does proceed with direct military strikes on Iran, it will badly and perhaps permanently fracture the MAGA coalition. There are signs that Gabbard may already be on the way out. Tucker Carlson (who strongly favors the pro-Russia, anti-war position) interviewed Ted Cruz today, pressing him on why he was so supportive of Israel and ready to attack Iran.
If Elon Musk also decides to come out against intervention in Iran, it will provide cover to Vance, Gabbard, RFK Jr., Carlson, and the rest of the libertarian anti-war faction to start to undermine Trump, which may lead to impeachment or an effort to invoke the 25th Amendment.
But as with all things Trump 2.0, if you don’t like the crisis of the moment, wait ten minutes. It was just last week we were wondering if martial law would be invoked in Los Angeles. That worry, for a moment at least, feels like a distant memory.
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I hate these types of headlines. If there’s one lesson to be learned from the last 8 years is Trump is impervious to losing his base. They will continue to lap it up no matter what he does. No matter how many times he changes course. No matter how many times he betrays them. I really don’t understand the hold he has on his base but he’s not losing. I really believe he could commit murder in public and he would still be defended by them.
This is slightly different than what you’re talking about. A number of the folks that are turning on trump are part of his propaganda apparatus. These are the folks that bring trump’s incoherent ramblings into policy positions for his base. If the GOP propaganda machine turns against trump it will be harder for trump to hold onto his base.
Realistically we know much of the GOP platform is simply grift. However trump has been screwing up the grift for lots of rich US oligarchs recently. Thats the most important component of his base. The rabble are who show up for rallies. The oligarchs are the ones that write checks. The oligarchs saw how one of their own, Musk, was treated and may see the writing on the wall that trump has too much power for their grift to continue.
Those two are the biggest risks to trumps power.
I hope you’re right but I don’t have much hope.
