- cross-posted to:
- politics
- cross-posted to:
- politics
It pops up as paywalled in Chrome, but not Firefox. Not on archive.org, so here’s a tl;dr:
"Two private polls conducted in a swing New York House district and reviewed by POLITICO — one in September and another in March — found former President Donald Trump leading Biden there by 1 point, a virtual tie. And public polls over the last four months found Biden’s lead had winnowed to just 8 points across New York — an unusually narrow gap in a state where Democrats outnumber Republicans 2 to 1.
“We’re still acting like this is a one-party state, which for pretty much 20, 25 years it has been,” Democratic Manhattan Borough President Mark Levine said. “I truly believe we’re a battleground state now.”
A Biden lead of 8 points in a state he carried by 23 in 2020 is a huge loss of support.
Current polling:
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/new-york/
The problem is, as I’ve noted previously, the time to replace him was last September. It’s too late at this point.
Here are the scenarios:
Biden runs and loses, which is the current track.
DNC forces Biden out for Harris, who loses, because people hate her more than Biden.
DNC forces both Biden and Harris out for a new candidate, who loses, because voters feel they had no role in choosing the replacement.
The only way I see a “D” win here is for Biden to die in office, Harris steps up and gets a sympathy vote.
Respectfully disagree. It took France a couple of weeks to form the New Popular Front, which just won HUGE. Why wouldn’t it be possible to form a similar coalition in the US?
There is zero chance that the DNC steps aside for a third party…
And there’s like a 0.0001% chance they pick anyone except Kamala if Biden is replaced.
I think she has a better shot than Joe. Some people think the other way.
If the DNC allowed it, there is plenty of time for a primary. The DNC just isn’t going to do that. Because the incoming Dem president gets to set the DNC leadership and party platform. If a Republican wins, the party usually votes to maintain leadership.
So for current leadership when the choices are:
The only way they lose power is #3. If trump wins, they keep power and 2028 is the same shit show we’ve been living thru.
Understanding doesn’t mean I agree with it.
But that’s where we’re at right now. Biden and the DNC are willing to burn the country down for personal power. And regardless of if he wins or loses, the people in charge of the DNC stay in charge of it.
Because the US doesn’t have a Parliamentary system of government.
I’m not talking about forming a new party. I mean forming a coalition.
I’m just tired of hearing “it’s too late” when it’s quite obviously not too late.
In a non-Parliamentary government, there’s nobody to form a coalition with.
OMG, you’re making this more difficult than it needs to be.
Ok…coalesce around a new candidate. Find someone fucking else. There’s still time and France just proved it. How can you say it’s too late?
Because any new candidate has 118 days to rise to prominenance and win the election, that’s not enough time.
Oddly specific number. Care to share the law in which this figure is stated?
That’s the number of days until Election Day.
Democrats keep punching left at those here in the US trying to form coalitions like New Popular Front.
Polling shows that people don’t hate Harris more though. In this context she’s more popular than both Biden and Trump.
https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/elections/2024/03/14/kamala-harris-not-popular-beyond-democrats-poll/72944269007/
"The national survey found 52% of registered voters disapprove of her job performance as President Joe Biden’s vice president.
About 36% approve of how she’s handling the role, trailing Biden’s almost equally dismal 41% approval rating.
Roughly 38% of Americans have a favorable view of Harris, lagging behind Biden, who is viewed favorably by 41% of registered voters. Former President Donald Trump, the presumptive Republican nominee, was viewed favorably by 40% of respondents in the poll."
You have to look at aggregate polls, single polls don’t provide a clear picture.
Biden’s approval rating is -19.3 https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/
Trump’s favorability rating is -11.8 https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/favorability/donald-trump/
Harris’ approval rating is -12 https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/approval/kamala-harris/
Perhaps look at more recent polling after Biden’sfailure in the debate, not numbers from May.
[Reuters]
She’s more popular with women and independents than Biden, which are two of the main groups Biden has been attempting to court to make up for losing the anti-genocide vote. There are no downsides, Biden’s a guarunteed loss, his numbers match up with every losing presidential candidate going back decades.
Harris, while hindered by being in the administration, can also distance herself from Biden’s overwhelming support. She doesn’t need to say “from the river to the sea”, just being wishy washy could give some people the room to vote Democratic for other reasons.