Any deal with Trump is no deal at all. He’s the kind of guy that, if you give an inch, starts waving his hands around about how you stole 16 inches from him, and how you must be thrown in a hole somewhere.
Granting him anything is telling him that you are weak and ripe to be exploited.
We (Europe) already did most of the heavy lifting for Ukraine. The US mostly gave old stockpiles of weapons that they would’ve needed to destroy anyway. We are the ones actually paying cash to keep them afloat.
The problem is, in the post-WW2 order, our defense and our defense industry was made dependent on the USA by design. And even up until last November, Europe didn’t want to challenge this arrangement and just went full steam ahead with this arrangement, ordering US made weapons. I think Europe was in denial that Biden could lose or that NATO could ever end.
Only France, and to a limited extent, Sweden and Turkey, have independent defense industries.
In the future, we will have it again. And Ukraine will actually be a key player.
But in the short term, there is no magical button to press that can produce the arms.
Undoing decades of integration isn’t going to be easy.
Putin is going to make a hard move into the baltics during Trump’s first 2 years, including NATO countries. And Europe won’t be able to do shit about it. They need defenses now and European leadership needs to fast track it.
you talk as if Europe doesn’t have agency, or a military.
they do. they have gaps in their capability that have been created by the departure of US. and they no longer have the overwhelming advantage against Russia, but the thing is Russia will still get absolutely smoked.
the only thing that has changed, is it will be a far bloodier fight. Europe and America are both casualty averse. the prospect of things like Bucha Mariupol and Irpin happening in their cities, the population isnt ready for that.
(And to be clear, what happened in those towns and cities were a crime against humanity, after what Russia did there the Ukrainians understood very well this is a genocidal total war, its kill or be killed, and I dont think Europe has understood thats what its going to be.)
Maybe,just maybe, look up your world politics again.
All baltic nations(except Russia) are NATO members
All baltic nations (except Russia) are EU members and therefore covered by the Lisbon accords as well - which are much more far reaching than what NATO accords cover,btw.
So while the Baltics are in a shitty situation it’s not like Russia could attack a “non NATO” Baltic nation - as your “including” make it seem.
And currently there are 40.000 Soldiers of the ARF either deployed in the Baltics or ready to deployed within short notice - while the EU battlegroup is also available and gaining speed. The former is - for the first time - not sustained by US troops mainly,the later one of course never was. And as the ARF is a very British corps the UK has made it very clear that the ARF also operates under the British nuclear deterrence - so did France with both battlegroups.
Will that be enough to deter Putin? Who knows.
Is it nothing? Definitely not - at the moment it would be, even without US support, enough to cause either the Ukrainian front or the “new front” (wherever that would be) to collapse fast.
Your narrative is either influenced by Russian misinformation or you are Russian misinformation - it is known that Russia tries to “it’s not worth it to even fight” narrative heavily into Europe and it has done so in Ukraine before.
Yes. USA already knows what its going to do. A hypothetical trade agreement isn’t going to change the decision, so Ukraine should make exactly zero concessions in pursuit of influencing a decision which has already been made.
They’re safer with a deal with guarantees, but Trump doesn’t want to give any, only take the profit. Otherwise it’s a choice between soldiers dying and soldiers dying with profit sharing.
Does anyone else have the feeling that Ukraine is safer with no deal?
This guy does (he was there too, sitting next to vance, btw)
I’m certain Dr Birx can recommend him a therapist who specializes in sold souls…
A man who, by the way, was fully supported by every single democratic senator.
He was supposed to be the “adult” in the room. They all fear Trump… For some reason, I don’t get it.
trump is a good punishment for power-hungry politician types, too bad that it is at everyone else’s expense.
Any deal with Trump is no deal at all. He’s the kind of guy that, if you give an inch, starts waving his hands around about how you stole 16 inches from him, and how you must be thrown in a hole somewhere.
Granting him anything is telling him that you are weak and ripe to be exploited.
Just like with any dictator deals are worthless. Putin broke the ceasefire and Trump is breaking trade deals.
Yeah, and the EU should immediately step up, and triplicate support for Ukraine.
We (Europe) already did most of the heavy lifting for Ukraine. The US mostly gave old stockpiles of weapons that they would’ve needed to destroy anyway. We are the ones actually paying cash to keep them afloat.
The problem is, in the post-WW2 order, our defense and our defense industry was made dependent on the USA by design. And even up until last November, Europe didn’t want to challenge this arrangement and just went full steam ahead with this arrangement, ordering US made weapons. I think Europe was in denial that Biden could lose or that NATO could ever end.
Only France, and to a limited extent, Sweden and Turkey, have independent defense industries.
In the future, we will have it again. And Ukraine will actually be a key player.
But in the short term, there is no magical button to press that can produce the arms.
Undoing decades of integration isn’t going to be easy.
Putin is going to make a hard move into the baltics during Trump’s first 2 years, including NATO countries. And Europe won’t be able to do shit about it. They need defenses now and European leadership needs to fast track it.
you talk as if Europe doesn’t have agency, or a military.
they do. they have gaps in their capability that have been created by the departure of US. and they no longer have the overwhelming advantage against Russia, but the thing is Russia will still get absolutely smoked.
the only thing that has changed, is it will be a far bloodier fight. Europe and America are both casualty averse. the prospect of things like Bucha Mariupol and Irpin happening in their cities, the population isnt ready for that.
(And to be clear, what happened in those towns and cities were a crime against humanity, after what Russia did there the Ukrainians understood very well this is a genocidal total war, its kill or be killed, and I dont think Europe has understood thats what its going to be.)
Maybe,just maybe, look up your world politics again.
So while the Baltics are in a shitty situation it’s not like Russia could attack a “non NATO” Baltic nation - as your “including” make it seem.
And currently there are 40.000 Soldiers of the ARF either deployed in the Baltics or ready to deployed within short notice - while the EU battlegroup is also available and gaining speed. The former is - for the first time - not sustained by US troops mainly,the later one of course never was. And as the ARF is a very British corps the UK has made it very clear that the ARF also operates under the British nuclear deterrence - so did France with both battlegroups.
Will that be enough to deter Putin? Who knows. Is it nothing? Definitely not - at the moment it would be, even without US support, enough to cause either the Ukrainian front or the “new front” (wherever that would be) to collapse fast.
Your narrative is either influenced by Russian misinformation or you are Russian misinformation - it is known that Russia tries to “it’s not worth it to even fight” narrative heavily into Europe and it has done so in Ukraine before.
Making a dumbass geography mistake proves I’m American, not Russian 😅
Anyway, I don’t think 40,000 is enough if the USA is aligned or even allied with Russia. Which you know, seems entirely possible given current events.
You just made all of the points that I was thinking about.
Triple*
Yes. USA already knows what its going to do. A hypothetical trade agreement isn’t going to change the decision, so Ukraine should make exactly zero concessions in pursuit of influencing a decision which has already been made.
Exactly, Trump already decided he was going to surrender. Zelensky knew he wasn’t going to get anything, but it was worth a shot I guess
They’re safer if they develop nuclear weapons on their own.
Libya and Ukraine convey the same warning to non NATO states. Have nukes or perish.
I’d suspect they’re safer with a deal… but they absolutely shouldn’t honor that deal.
They’re safer with a deal with guarantees, but Trump doesn’t want to give any, only take the profit. Otherwise it’s a choice between soldiers dying and soldiers dying with profit sharing.
All to play for . Join EU. Agree no NATO Putin fucks off.
America frozen.
Not sure how the US would react. Probably war.
They can sign a 50 year deal and stop payment 10 years from now, hopefully thing change for better then.