This is an objective, unbiased ranking in the same vein as the NFL Title Belt. As such, the number 1 ranked team will always be the same as the current NFL Title Belt holder.
Sorry about the late post. This should have gone out some time before the Thursday Night game.
This is Week 5 of the NFL Title Rankings of the 2026 season. See here for last year’s results.
4 of the 15 games ended with the lower ranked team winning. The largest jump was the Jets who jumped 28 spots after they beat the Browns. The Texans are again the lowest ranked team to win their game.
The Jaguars beat the Eagles to keep first and the NFL Title Belt. The Texans will have a chance to beat the Jaguars and take first in Week 6. With the Titans’ loss to the Texans, they will remain last. The Titans will have a chance to move out of last next week when they play the Colts.
Let me know if you’d like to see more of this, if you’re curious about how I came up with these rankings, or if you noticed any mistakes.
| Ranking | 2026 Wk5 | Δ | Notes | |
| 1 | Jaguars | - | The Jaguars are still first after beating the Eagles. | |
| 2 | Patriots | - | ||
| 3 | Jets | +28 | The Jets jumped 28 spots by beating the Browns. | |
| 4 | Browns | -1 | ||
| 5 | Steelers | -1 | ||
| 6 | Panthers | -1 | ||
| 7 | Ravens | +19 | The Ravens jumped 19 spots by beating the Falcons. | |
| 8 | Falcons | -2 | ||
| 9 | Bills | -2 | ||
| 10 | Lions | -2 | ||
| 11 | Chiefs | -2 | ||
| 12 | Raiders | -2 | ||
| 13 | Vikings | +3 | The Vikings jumped 3 spots by beating the Saints. | |
| 14 | Saints | -3 | ||
| 15 | Colts | -3 | ||
| 16 | Commanders | -3 | ||
| 17 | 49ers | +2 | The 49ers jumped 2 spots by beating the Seahawks. | |
| 18 | Seahawks | -4 | ||
| 19 | Bengals | -4 | ||
| 20 | Packers | -3 | ||
| 21 | Bucs | -3 | ||
| 22 | Broncos | -2 | ||
| 23 | Rams | -2 | ||
| 24 | Bears | -2 | ||
| 25 | Cowboys | -2 | ||
| 26 | Texans | -2 | ||
| 27 | Eagles | -2 | ||
| 28 | Giants | -1 | ||
| 29 | Cardinals | -1 | ||
| 30 | Chargers | -1 | ||
| 31 | Dolphins | -1 | ||
| 32 | Titans | - | The Titans are still last after losing to the Texans. |
This ranking assumes that there are never any fluke games and all teams are appropriately ranked. If you beat a team that is higher ranked than you, you move ahead of them and they move down one spot. However, other teams can jump in front of teams that are higher ranked than you, moving you further down the rankings.
Bonus rankings! This one is more straightforward. Teams get points for wins. They get more points for beating good teams and fewer points for beating bad teams. (+32 for beating the best team, +1 for beating the worst). Teams lose points for losses. They lose more points for losing to bad teams and fewer points for losing to good teams. (-32 for losing to the worst team, -1 for losing to the best). The point total was reset with the first game of the season.
This one looks a lot more like my mental model of the league
Yeah, this one is my actual attempt at making a rational calculated ranking. The other is more of a round-robin exercise of anybody can beat anybody and individual wins are kind of chaotic.