Edit First vote is in! Dixville Notch, New Hampshire!

Tie Vote 3-3!

https://www.cnn.com/2024/11/05/politics/dixville-notch-new-hampshire-2024-results/index.html

“Dixville Notch voters have supported the Democratic nominee the last two presidential elections, with the township in 2020 unanimously casting five votes for President Joe Biden and with Hillary Clinton in 2016 winning four of seven votes — two went to Trump and one to Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson.”

This thread is for the Presidential election, my plan is to start marking wins as soon as they are called, sorted by time zone.

Some states are going to take longer than others. Polls generally close at 8 PM local time, but they can’t start counting early/mail in votes until after the polls close.

Wisconsin in particular has an interesting system where ballots are collected by MUNICIPALITY, not precinct, they have over 1,800 ballot counting locations and don’t report until ALL 1,800 are in.

https://www.wbur.org/onpoint/2024/10/22/wisconsin-voters-election-milwaukee-security-denier

Currently 232 EC votes from Blue States:

4+19+10+7+3+3+4+10+11 +4+14+28+4+3+13+54+12 +10+5+8+6

93 EC votes from Battleground States:

10+16+15+16+19+11+6

Which leaves 213 EC votes in Red States.

9+6+6+6+8+6+10+5+3+7 +3+40+30+11+8+17+9+11 +4+3+4+4+3

270 to Win.

Online map here!

https://apnews.com/projects/election-results-2024/

  • @jordanlund
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    2 hours ago

    8 PM Eastern / 5 PM Pacific
    Puerto Rico -
    United States Virgin Islands -
    (D 7 EC Votes) Connecticut -
    (D 3) Delaware -
    (D 3) District of Columbia -
    (R 30) Florida - Partialy Eastern
    (BG 16) Georgia -
    (R 11) Indiana - Partialy Eastern
    (R 8) Kentucky - Partialy Eastern
    (D 4) Maine - Proportional
    (D 10) Maryland -
    (D 11) Massachusetts -
    (BG 15) Michigan - Partialy Eastern
    (D 4) New Hampshire - Dixville Notch 3-3 tie vote.
    https://www.cnn.com/2024/11/05/politics/dixville-notch-new-hampshire-2024-results/index.html
    (D 14) New Jersey -
    (D 28) New York -
    (BG 16) North Carolina -
    (R 17) Ohio -
    (BG 19) Pennsylvania -
    (D 4) Rhode Island -
    (R 9) South Carolina -
    (R 11) Tennessee - Partialy Eastern
    (D 3) Vermont -
    (D 13) Virginia -
    (R 4) West Virginia -

  • @jordanlund
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    2 AM Eastern / 11 PM Pacific
    (D - 4 EC votes) Hawaii -

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    9 PM Eastern / 6 PM Pacific
    (R 9 EC Votes) Alabama -
    (R 6) Arkansas -
    (D 19) Illinois -
    (R 6) Iowa -
    (R 6) Kansas - Partly Central time
    (R 8) Louisiana -
    (D 10) Minnesota -
    (R 6) Mississippi -
    (R 10) Missouri -
    (R 5) Nebraska - Proportional Partly Central time
    (R 3) North Dakota - Partly Central time
    (R 7) Oklahoma -
    (R 3) South Dakota - Partly Central time
    (R 40) Texas - Partly Central time
    (BG 10) Wisconsin -

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    1 - 2 AM Eastern / 10 - 11 PM Pacific
    (R 3 EC Votes) Alaska -

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    11 PM Eastern / 8 PM Pacific
    (D 54 EC Votes) California -
    (D 12) Washington -

  • @jordanlund
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    10 PM Eastern / 7 PM Pacific
    (BG 11 EC Votes) Arizona -
    (D 10) Colorado -
    (R 4) Idaho - Partly Mountain Time
    (R 4) Montana -
    (BG 6) Nevada - Partly Mountain Time
    (D 5) New Mexico -
    (D 8) Oregon - Partly Mountain Time
    (D 6) Utah -
    (R 3) Wyoming -

  • @jordanlund
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    111 day ago

    3 AM Eastern / 12 Midnight Pacific
    American Samoa -

  • @jordanlund
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    111 day ago

    6 AM Eastern / 3 AM Pacific:
    Guam -
    Northern Mariana Islands -

  • @WrenFeathers
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    22 hours ago

    Thanks so much for doing this Jordan. You’re very appreciated!

  • @jordanlundOPM
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    4 hours ago

    Here we go! Last run through the polls before the election!

    Arizona - Trump +1 to +5
    https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/arizona/

    Nevada - Trump +1 to +6
    https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/nevada/

    Georgia - Toss-Up - Trump +1 to +2
    https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/georgia/

    North Carolina - Trump +2 to +4
    https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/north-carolina/

    Pennsylvania - Toss-Up Harris +1/+2 to Trump +1/+2
    https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/pennsylvania/

    Michigan - Toss-Up Tie, Harris +1 to Trump +1/+2
    https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/michigan/

    Wisconsin - Toss-Up, Harris +1/+3 to Trump +1
    https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/wisconsin/

    Plotted on the map:

    Advantage is with Trump in this scenario.

    Assuming he takes Georgia, 2020 was an anomaly in my mind, GA has gone Republican in every other election since 1996, that gives Trump 264.

    Which means if Harris loses ANY other state, she’s done. She has to sweep PA, MI and WI to hit 274.

    If the disaffected Arab vote in MI is enough to flip it, plus a Trump win in Georgia, that puts him at 279 to Harris 259. A scarily likely scenario.

    • @kescusay
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      23 hours ago

      Honestly, with all the news showing how poll herding has been happening, I think it’s quite likely she sweeps the swing states. I’m less nervous now than I was a few days ago.

    • @return2ozma
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      13 hours ago

      My prediction is still Harris takes the popular vote, Trump the EC. I hate it here.

      • @jordanlundOPM
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        33 hours ago

        Trump hasn’t won a popular vote yet, so that’s a good call!

  • @[email protected]
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    37 hours ago

    My favorite take on this comes from James Carville:

    “I’m gonna sleep soundly tonight. Have a couple of bourbons, maybe a gummy or two, but yeah. Gonna sleep soundly tonight on her chances to win this thing.”

  • @return2ozma
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    37 hours ago

    What a year it’s been here in the politics channel. I’m still here. Exhausted.

      • @return2ozma
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        27 hours ago

        I will be voting tomorrow in person at my polling place before work.

        • @jordanlundOPM
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          46 hours ago

          Good for you! We just got the email at work “Hey, do your civic duty, if you need time off to vote, ask your manager.”

          Of course, I’m vote by mail, ballot’s been in since 10/24.

  • @[email protected]
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    37 hours ago

    Any predictions on what musk / xitter’s role in all this will be?

    They can basically call states for republicans early.

    • @jordanlundOPM
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      27 hours ago

      Musk will likely be promoting anything claiming a Trump win, but I don’t think X has their own election coverage, do they?

      • @[email protected]
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        36 hours ago

        That’s kind of what I mean. They don’t have their own formal coverage, but they can manipulate the prevalence of different narratives.

        If officials refuse to certify whatever states, having the perceived support of the public can make all the difference.