IDK if the claim that wages in weapons industry have increased to 5 times of what it was at the beginning of the war is true. That sounds extreme even for Russia. But apart from that every single point made in the video appear to be true.
If you have seen my comments early on, and later around the times of the increased central bank interest rate to 21%, and the decline of the Ruble, You have seen I’ve made the exact same claims. And predicted this trend already more than a year ago.
Russian economy is not just overheating, it’s both declining and overheating at the same time. Which kind of camouflages the already ongoing collapse. Talking about the Russian economy possibly collapsing, is disregarding the fact that it’s already collapsing. It’s just a slow collapse, because the government has had a war chest of money to pump into the economy. But we have now passed the point where more money can help the economy, because there is worker shortage, and it just blows up inflation.
Possibly the next sign of this ongoing collapse will be widespread use of food stamps, like they used in the late 80’s when the Soviet Union collapsed.
When that happens, it’s a sign that the end for the Russian federation is near.
Food stamps are very likely IMO, because without them, inflation will cause widespread starvation already 2025 among ordinary pensioners and the poor.I believe we are seeing the point where the collapse of the Russian federation becomes clear.
https://www.rbth.com/society/2013/10/16/a_look_at_the_old_ration_system_in_russia_30163With Soviet Union it took a decade, but things are declining (collapsing) way faster in the Russian Federation today.
If this decline accelerates as hard as it looks, and Putin can’t stop it, the Russian federation could collapse politically already this summer. But it could drag out a couple of years. At that time, there will at the minimum be a regime change in Russia as I see it. As a result of a collapsed economy. Where the federal state simply can’t function anymore.If Trump does not force peace before that.
He can’t force it.
He could stop invading at any time.
Nope. This will go on for years.
The short answer is yes, however the long, more involved answer is that it depends on how deep a hole Putler wants to dig for his country’s economy.
makes me wonder what Putins exit plan could possibly be, for himself. my guess is he could vanish with his ridiculous wealth and nobody would be sure if he’s alive or dead, like elvis rumors.
US is sadly not in a place to benefit with Trump coming to office. If Russia collapses and sees unrest, I’m guessing China will gain the most.
I agree, China will very likely benefit the most, and probably gain control of Russia’s rare ressources. Not through taking it over physically, but because Russia will be to China what Belarus is to Russia now. China will most likely reap most of the benefits, without all the problems of a war.
It doesn’t matter if Ukraine loses due to meager support from the EU. They can tank their economy and still win the war, then the EU will just shrug, wind down war expenses and be in the same situation again in 10 years, this time with a closer neighbor being invaded.
European support to Ukraine is a combined 250billion€, which is more then Ukraines GDP. Also Europe so far has not cared about the US cutting aid to Ukraine and the US did that in the past. What happened was an increase of European aid to Ukraine.
I’m not saying it’s nothing, I’m saying it’s meager. Europe had at least 10 years to prevent a war, but it didn’t. Europe had the opportunity to prepare for one for the same amount of time, but it didn’t. Europe had the opportunity to support Ukraine strike back hard and decisively few months after the war, but it didn’t take it. Europe waited on the US to allow targeting Russian locations within Russia due to a lack of fear stemming from a lack of preparation. From the news reports, it seems more like this war is being treated as a testing ground for weapons, especially drones.
It doesn’t seem like most of Europe has understood the threat that is posed by Russia. The Baltics, Finland, Sweden, and Poland have but the rest is either under the influence of Putin or otherwise occupied.
You can not prevent a war with a mad country. They attack, when they want to and that is how wars start. The only way to make sure they can not do that again, is to destroy them. The Russian Empire died in WW1 due to a long costly war, the Soviet Union collapsed as it could no longer afford the long Cold War and now Russia has to collapse due to Ukraine. Russia can survive small wars fairly well. So this has to be extended, as victory has to be to destroy the Russian Federation.
However a quick war, like the Winter War, Polish Soviet War or the war against Japan, does hurt them, but does not destroy them. So your idea of a decisive strike would just cause another war in a decade. The current strategy can mean no war with Russia for decades or if we are lucky for even longer.
