This is clearly a gift to Russia.
If agreed, how will Russia use those 30 days. How will Europe and Ukraine?
Russia will use it to rearm and plan for a new attack, certainly. That’s why I think it’s a gift for them. Ukraine had better do the same, because the track record of Putin says this ain’t gonna hold.
plan for a new attack
Russia has been drilling and preparing troops for a river crossing alongside bringing in additional supplies likely in preparation to cross the Dnieper and they had captured land near the Kherson bridge.
Without the Ukrainian attacks on say Russian command posts in Kherson Oblast like what happened on March 5, these preparations would likely be easier.
Alternatively, a Russian FAB strike in Kherson allegedly took down a headquarters for Ukrainian drone operators and with a ceasefire, this can be repaired or whatever.
TLDR: Russia would likely also use ceasefire to prepare for further operations assuming they accept it.
Could you imagine if Russia violates this ceasefire too? The propaganda…
They will, but under the guise of a false flag to state that Ukraine broke the ceasefire first.
If it happens and Ukraine and its true allies use the time wisely to prepare for the worst case, then the worst case might not be so bad.
Ukraine isn’t recovering much territory militarily anytime soon, short of a black swan event. So diplomacy and putin’s “retirement” will be the way.
trump will screw it up with premature sanctions relief though.
Zelenskyy agreed but Russia’s response has yet to come.
I disagree with OP, this ain’t a gift to Russia.
Ukrainian troops have been operationally encircled at Kursk with the only road out being under Russian fire control, Russian VVS has air above Kursk region under their control, and unconfirmed reports state that a possible coup is brewing within Ukrainian army because of Zelenskyy’s and Syrskyi‘s hubris in conducting Kursk offensive. Russia’s Operation Potok in Kursk region led to a detachment of Russian troops entering the rear of Ukrainian forces through an inactive gas pipeline resulting in weakening of the Ukrainian group at the area of the city of Sudzha and some Ukrainian troops being effectively encircled in Ivashkovskii.
As Ukraine sent its most elite units into Kursk region, the destruction of Ukrainian forces in Kursk region would be very detrimental and without guns targeting the road going silent, escape is unlikely.
Given the above, a ceasefire assuming it allows a withdraw, can be temporarily life saving for Ukraine.
I might have a pro-Russia bias, but I believe that this ceasefire would benefit Ukraine in the war effort assuming they can use it to withdraw units from Kursk region.
I might have a pro-Russia bias
If you do, you have zero credibility.
Believe what you want.
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I agree. This also puts Putin under pressure because not agreeing after Ukraine already has would make him look bloodthirsty even to his supporters.
because not agreeing after Ukraine already has would make him look bloodthirsty
Anyone who doesn’t already see what Putin is, is a fool or a liar.
Or extremely misinformed
I don’t think this puts Putin under any pressure. If anything there’s a lot of people who are going to criticize him if he accepts another temporary ceasefire that allows Ukraine to rearm
Russia could use that time to rearm too. Don’t assume their logistics are in great shape.
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