Conservates: He already won in 2020 just you wait until he rides back in on a bald eagle and jails all the pedophile aliens from Georgia who stole the election. Hunter Biden!

Liberals: I learned my lesson making predictions in November 2020.

I doubt it. Polls conducted this early aren’t worth much. People who tend to vote for Democrats may wish for a younger candidate than Biden, but when confronted in the voting booth with a choice of fascism or Biden, most will choose Biden.

Probably. I don’t follow US politics closely, but it does feel like we’re in the darkest timeline.

Besides, he kind of goatse-d the overton window. Nothing would surprise me now that it’s already happened once.

He doesn’t have a chance in the popular vote. He already lost it once (twice, technically). And with how polarizing he’s become, only the more extreme fringe actors are outright supporting him, and those with real money want a “safe” candidate that allows them to keep grifting behind the scenes without causing such a big ruckus. He’ll lose a lot of big donor support, and people are growing tired of the constant outrage news that he generates.
We’ve seen how he performs a symphony of a clusterfuck in a 4 year term, and not even the GOP itself is jumping right at the idea of embracing another 4 years of that struggle- they’re waffling at the idea, and a lot of the extremist upstarts that got a foothold under Trump now want to knock him out of it so they can have their own moment of glory. But Trump was a one-time shot. He was THE face of “The Big Businessman, doing a Business” that appealed to the older, more bootstrapy kind of crowd that still unfortunately dominates the actively voting public. All the younger extremists are trying to parrot him and can’t quite get away with the same level of “crazy” energy without looking actually crazy, since they don’t have the gold-plated toilet of “American Success” to back them up.

But regardless of that, will every hard-right extremist fight tooth and nail to ensure he still wins, including but not limited to high treason, rushed gerrrymandering, voter intimidation (or outright slaughter) and the active dismantling of every aspect of democracy down to the local voter box level? You bet your ass they’re gonna try here.

Probably. It’s america after all

Yes, until proven otherwise… call it a coping mechanism.

In 2020, Trump was blamed for exacerbating the pandemic, the economy was struggling, the Black Lives Matter movement was at its peak, etc. the stage was set for an easy win, but democrats barely won control of the senate and Biden’s victory was close enough to let Trumps election nonsense get traction.

Now going into 2024, Biden is taking the blame for everything, is in a no win situation on Israel, and is doing poorly in polls (especially concerning since lately polls have under represented trump voters.) then there are all the protest voters who imply they will vote for trump out of spite or just cause they hate Biden and the DNC…

My two big questions right now are 1) will trump be in jail (seems unlikely considering how nothing ever sticks to the man and he has a stacked court in his favor) and 2) what effect will the actual campaign season and especially political ads have on voters (a brilliant campaign could do wonders for Biden).

There is also the chance that the average American’s experiences with the economy improve next year. Inflation is down, wages are growing, unions are seeing success, the Israel situation will hopefully be done well before the election, etc.

I’m going to say no. The loudest people don’t always seem to make it to the polls. Here in Illinois, we heard lots of hate for Pritzker. Anti JB signs everywhere. Only 58% turned out to vote and Pritzker was declared the winner within hours of the polls opening

I don’t believe Trump will be the GOP nominee. He will run third party.

There is a strong movement to hold a constitutional convention before the next election. It is backed by a right wing group called ALEC. They think they have a loophole to make it happen and the new speaker of the house backs the idea. I think if they had a wider majority it would already be happening. They will rewrite the rules to ensure a hard right anti-civil rights candidate wins.

I’m hesitant to laugh it off and say “there’s no way”.

I think it’s a coin flip. You could point to ten reasons it’s “obvious” Trump will win and I could give you ten reasons it’s “obvious” he won’t.

I think it’s a bit early to make any kind of educated speculation and wild speculation just isn’t really all that helpful for anyone.

I mean, he may win the election. But there’s no way he makes it to office.

No, unless the 30-40 year old people drank a ton of lead paint and completely forgot how much he fucked up pandemic procedures, that GEORGE W. BUSH wrote.

There is no way in hell he’s gonna win. The meme is dead, the joke is over. He’s not gonna win, he’s not popular with moderates.

I think he’ll die from the stress of 4+ (and counting) simultaneous criminal trials well before any of them are held