They cooked that one up months before the campaigns even got underway. Hillary was always a terrible candidate I. this regar; that they had know she’d do a big run, and had literally decades to build oppo research and a smear campaign. I mean, it was obvious that she was a bad candidate in this regard as early as 2013.
Harris I think really did catch them off guard. Which is a bit surprising?
Yeah, I don’t understand how Biden dropping out really surprised anyone. Even a year in advance, I gave it a 50/50 that he’d run again. Once he decided to run, I gave Harris a 60-70% chance of taking over his campaign and becoming the nominee.
If I were on Trump’s campaign team, I would have already prepared for Biden and Harris, and maybe RFK in case he switches to the Dem ticket at the last moment (very unlikely).
Because the last time an incumbent President didn’t run for re-election was in 1968, it happened a lot earlier in the election cycle then and it resulted in a devastating loss for the incumbent’s party?
Sure, but Biden is also super old (way older than previous presidents) and was showing clear signs that his age was catching up to him, hence the 50/50.
Completely agreed. She basically took BIden’s platform, tweaked it a bit, and was able to use the Biden/Harris campaign funds that was already raised. She was also already gearing up for VP debates and whatnot, so yeah, it makes a ton of sense for her to be able to hit the ground running.
I don’t think demographics are particularly important here since it’s a literal handoff from one candidate to another. There was no primary, so no mudslinging from other candidates and whatnot, just a smooth baton handoff.
That said, I don’t like her as a candidate. In 2020, she was dead last in my list of candidates, and there’s a host of potential candidates I’d prefer over her. But those other candidates didn’t actually run because Biden was the presumptive nominee, so she didn’t have to deal with the polls in a primary. And that’s why I think she was able to keep the majority of Biden’s support base and get a bit of her own.
Harris I think really did catch them off guard. Which is a bit surprising?
If we were talking about the GOP of 12 years ago, they would have been able to pivot to Harris much more easily.
Trump ate the brain of the party in an almost literal way. A lot of the people who knew how stuff worked–McCain, Paul Ryan, Dick Cheney, Romney–were all pushed away or were disgusted with Trump. Basically all the smart, Lawful Evil people. This cycle completed itself this past spring/summer, when Trump replaced all the internal GOP committee members with his own people. They were chosen for loyalty first, and competence a distant second.
That factor of loyalty first/competence later makes fascism fall apart in the long run. However, they can do a whole lot of damage while the failures work themselves out. If we could figure out a way to get them to speedrun this process, we’d have a very effective tool to fight fascism.
they still need a new version of Hillary’s emails to hit Harris with.
They cooked that one up months before the campaigns even got underway. Hillary was always a terrible candidate I. this regar; that they had know she’d do a big run, and had literally decades to build oppo research and a smear campaign. I mean, it was obvious that she was a bad candidate in this regard as early as 2013.
Harris I think really did catch them off guard. Which is a bit surprising?
For some reason they simply couldn’t fathom an old man giving up power for the good of the country.
Also underestimating a woman of color, because they are sexist and rascist.
Yeah, I don’t understand how Biden dropping out really surprised anyone. Even a year in advance, I gave it a 50/50 that he’d run again. Once he decided to run, I gave Harris a 60-70% chance of taking over his campaign and becoming the nominee.
If I were on Trump’s campaign team, I would have already prepared for Biden and Harris, and maybe RFK in case he switches to the Dem ticket at the last moment (very unlikely).
exactly, even in 2019 there was smoke about him only doing one term.
https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/474027-biden-indicates-he-will-only-serve-one-term-as-president-report/
https://www.usnews.com/news/elections/articles/2019-12-11/joe-biden-suggests-he-would-only-serve-one-term-if-elected-president
Because the last time an incumbent President didn’t run for re-election was in 1968, it happened a lot earlier in the election cycle then and it resulted in a devastating loss for the incumbent’s party?
Sure, but Biden is also super old (way older than previous presidents) and was showing clear signs that his age was catching up to him, hence the 50/50.
Personally I didn’t think another candidate would be able to campaign as successfully as Harris has in the few short months she’s had.
I thought it would disrupt the Dems demographic and cause the whole thing to fall apart. Kinda like what happened when Bernie dropped out.
Completely agreed. She basically took BIden’s platform, tweaked it a bit, and was able to use the Biden/Harris campaign funds that was already raised. She was also already gearing up for VP debates and whatnot, so yeah, it makes a ton of sense for her to be able to hit the ground running.
I don’t think demographics are particularly important here since it’s a literal handoff from one candidate to another. There was no primary, so no mudslinging from other candidates and whatnot, just a smooth baton handoff.
That said, I don’t like her as a candidate. In 2020, she was dead last in my list of candidates, and there’s a host of potential candidates I’d prefer over her. But those other candidates didn’t actually run because Biden was the presumptive nominee, so she didn’t have to deal with the polls in a primary. And that’s why I think she was able to keep the majority of Biden’s support base and get a bit of her own.
If we were talking about the GOP of 12 years ago, they would have been able to pivot to Harris much more easily.
Trump ate the brain of the party in an almost literal way. A lot of the people who knew how stuff worked–McCain, Paul Ryan, Dick Cheney, Romney–were all pushed away or were disgusted with Trump. Basically all the smart, Lawful Evil people. This cycle completed itself this past spring/summer, when Trump replaced all the internal GOP committee members with his own people. They were chosen for loyalty first, and competence a distant second.
That factor of loyalty first/competence later makes fascism fall apart in the long run. However, they can do a whole lot of damage while the failures work themselves out. If we could figure out a way to get them to speedrun this process, we’d have a very effective tool to fight fascism.
Auto correct bit you: …was always a terrible candidate I. this regar;