Tank losses this month are higher then most months of 2023. That picked up a lot in October of 2023, which was the peak and then started to slowly drop. So this can just mean massive human wave attacks.
Tank losses this month are higher then most months of 2023
Are you sure? because that’s not how I remember it, as I recall numbers were generally close to 20 per day last year.
The average for the war according to these numbers is 9120 tanks /940 days = 9.7 tanks per day.
So considering this is one of the highest casualty numbers of the war, the tank number is relatively small.
Right, but about the turn from 2023 to 2024 tank numbers dropped a lot. Generally it was thought that russia ran out of tanks in storage that can quickly be reactivated. Of course they still have a lot, but the running out of tanks in storage forced hard decisions about how to use tanks. In turn that made the tanks lost number go way down this year, but since they have a lot of tanks they can use them more and sometimes they will lose more than they can make.
OK it was only by the end of 2023 the numbers were very high, still compared to being one of the highest numbers of casualties, the number of tanks today is relatively low, as it is below average.
And the number of tanks is on a clearly downwards trajectory since a year ago. October ending as possibly the 2nd lowest this year.
their cold war vehicle park is slowly (and in case of specific models quickly) running low. perun made a great video about it, using data from Covert Cabal and @highmarsed, who used private satellite providers to shoot photos of russian military bases and painstakingly counted the stored vehicles.
Russia still has a lot of tanks in storage - many dating back to just after WWII. However all the good ones have been used up and so what is left needs major rework, or brand new off the assembly line tanks. Generally it is thought between the two Russia can produce about 3 tanks per day (the real number is classified so we/I don’t know). What this means is Russia was forced to make hard decisions about using tanks
From the updates I’ve seen, I get the sense that Russia is fighting through the culmination of their multi-front offensive in hopes of making gains ahead of the muddy season. I try not to remark too much about casualty rates, but the increase in tandem with the low ratio of tanks does seem to speak to this bit of speculation (not a military expert or even a “war nerd”, just following along as a layperson mind you).
From the updates I’ve seen, I get the sense that Russia is fighting through the culmination of their multi-front offensive in hopes of making gains ahead of the muddy season.
This is what confuses me about Russia’s choosing these huge losses in the past couple of months. In less than week the USA will have submitted all ballots for the Presidential election (with likely another week of confusion and complaints until the victor is clear). If Trump wins, he will destroy US and possibly European support for Ukraine causing Ukraine to be wiped out by Russia. If Harris wins, then at least the amount of military and economic support continues as it has so far, or it could get even larger. Even if Harris keeps the support the same, Putin doesn’t cannot take 4 more years at the current rate of attrition, and he’ll have to withdraw or be kicked out when the Russian well runs dry.
So when the answer is less than a month away, why double down on meat waves with such tremendous losses? Why not wait for the results of the election defensively, while building up your forces, and either go forward with attacking a then weakened Ukraine under Trump, or turn around and use your forces at home to attempt to suppress your population to keep Putin in power under a Harris win?
So few tanks to so many men.
Tank losses this month are higher then most months of 2023. That picked up a lot in October of 2023, which was the peak and then started to slowly drop. So this can just mean massive human wave attacks.
Are you sure? because that’s not how I remember it, as I recall numbers were generally close to 20 per day last year.
The average for the war according to these numbers is 9120 tanks /940 days = 9.7 tanks per day.
So considering this is one of the highest casualty numbers of the war, the tank number is relatively small.
Right, but about the turn from 2023 to 2024 tank numbers dropped a lot. Generally it was thought that russia ran out of tanks in storage that can quickly be reactivated. Of course they still have a lot, but the running out of tanks in storage forced hard decisions about how to use tanks. In turn that made the tanks lost number go way down this year, but since they have a lot of tanks they can use them more and sometimes they will lose more than they can make.
https://index.minfin.com.ua/en/russian-invading/casualties/
OK it was only by the end of 2023 the numbers were very high, still compared to being one of the highest numbers of casualties, the number of tanks today is relatively low, as it is below average.
And the number of tanks is on a clearly downwards trajectory since a year ago. October ending as possibly the 2nd lowest this year.
their cold war vehicle park is slowly (and in case of specific models quickly) running low. perun made a great video about it, using data from Covert Cabal and @highmarsed, who used private satellite providers to shoot photos of russian military bases and painstakingly counted the stored vehicles.
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Good to see y’all showed up with receipts, I only have enough mental bandwidth for hunches right now
Maybe they really run out of battle ready tanks now, and that pays heavily into casualties as they can’t give cover to advancing orcs?
Russia still has a lot of tanks in storage - many dating back to just after WWII. However all the good ones have been used up and so what is left needs major rework, or brand new off the assembly line tanks. Generally it is thought between the two Russia can produce about 3 tanks per day (the real number is classified so we/I don’t know). What this means is Russia was forced to make hard decisions about using tanks
From the updates I’ve seen, I get the sense that Russia is fighting through the culmination of their multi-front offensive in hopes of making gains ahead of the muddy season. I try not to remark too much about casualty rates, but the increase in tandem with the low ratio of tanks does seem to speak to this bit of speculation (not a military expert or even a “war nerd”, just following along as a layperson mind you).
This is what confuses me about Russia’s choosing these huge losses in the past couple of months. In less than week the USA will have submitted all ballots for the Presidential election (with likely another week of confusion and complaints until the victor is clear). If Trump wins, he will destroy US and possibly European support for Ukraine causing Ukraine to be wiped out by Russia. If Harris wins, then at least the amount of military and economic support continues as it has so far, or it could get even larger. Even if Harris keeps the support the same, Putin doesn’t cannot take 4 more years at the current rate of attrition, and he’ll have to withdraw or be kicked out when the Russian well runs dry.
So when the answer is less than a month away, why double down on meat waves with such tremendous losses? Why not wait for the results of the election defensively, while building up your forces, and either go forward with attacking a then weakened Ukraine under Trump, or turn around and use your forces at home to attempt to suppress your population to keep Putin in power under a Harris win?