Polling by right-leaning firms has exploded this cycle. Maybe they want to be accurate—or maybe they’re trying to create a sense of momentum for Donald Trump.
  • @SelfProgrammed
    8•1 hour ago

    The conservative community on lemmy.ee currently has a post about there being a 66% chance Trump wins. They’re chugging the Kool aid over there.

  • @givesomefucksEnglish
    34•4 hours ago

    Obviously…

    But any polling aggregator that blindly treats every poll the same isn’t worth listening to.

    I mean, we literally know that Musk’s door knockers are just spoofing gps so they don’t have to go door to door, and are filling out the surveys as saying everyone already voted early for trump.

    • @someguy3
      3•1 hour ago

      I’ve heard this. But how do you spoof your gps? (I assume it’s the ground user.)

  • Funderpants
    23•3 hours ago

    Who knows, seems likely to me, but in any case the early vote numbers /breakdowns stress me out. If Trump wins the election, I’m going to have to just get off social media, I’ve already had to delete YouTube, for my mental health and just live without thinking about how bad the world is getting around me.

    Edit: Do not be discouraged by my doom and gloom, I’m Canadian, I can’t vote, you can so go do it. Do it now if you can.

    • @CheeryLBottom
      3•54 minutes ago

      I’m an American and I live in Canada and can vote (already did)

      All of this stresses me out too. I feel like I’m like,“Kilroy was here” and peering over the wall, just watching

      What will hurt is having to stay off Lemmy because If be unable to resist the temptation

    • @PlasticExistenceEnglish
      32•3 hours ago

      Absolutely do not believe the polls because every single time people show up in huge numbers to vote, Republicans lose!

      Just vote, everyone. Don’t avoid it because you think it won’t matter. It will! Republicans want you to think they’ve already won. Prove them wrong!

      It all went down in mid-September, at a time when the FiveThirtyEight polling averages showed the slightest of leads for Kamala Harris in North Carolina, a must-win state for Trump. Her edge was short-lived: The averages moved back to favoring Trump. And Quantus Insights, a GOP-friendly polling firm, took credit for this development. When a MAGA influencer celebrated the pro-Trump shift on X (formerly Twitter), Quantus’s account responded: “You’re welcome.”

      Most prominently, Democratic strategist Simon Rosenberg and data analyst Tom Bonier, who were skeptical of such predictions in 2022 and ultimately proved correct, are now warning that all this is happening again.

      The Republicans got their asses handed to them in 2022, and (unfortunately) people don’t normally show up in big numbers for a midterm election. This is a presidential election, so you can expect it will be an even bigger turnout.

      Don’t get discouraged. All you have to do is vote. If Trump doesn’t get elected, he can’t weasel out of his legal problems, which is his only way out of them.

      • @kescusay
        15•3 hours ago

        Thank you. I’m getting very tired of the sudden influx of doom and gloom when the actual data points to a likely Harris win and bullshit from Republican pollsters.

        • @PlasticExistenceEnglish
          15•3 hours ago

          Harris is running on a message of looking forward to the future and on a message of hope. All research shows that actually motivates people better than fear, which is all the republicans have.

          Harris is a likable person without the baggage that Hillary carried in 2016, and she’s not an entitled white woman. All the major news outlets are owned by billionaires whose sociopathic pursuit of hoarding wealth is best served by the republicans, so of course all of them are going to spin everything to discourage democrats from voting.

          We have an awful, awful lot of damage to address in the USA, but we can’t even begin to fix a broken system with republicans in power. I have plenty of my own criticisms for the democrats, but unfortunately this is the situation. They must win this election. We will have to reform the party in the coming years if we want to see any actual change. That starts with making sure republicans lose by voting. I’ll be going after work to vote early tomorrow.

          • @kescusay
            3•1 hour ago

            Hey, I hear you. And given the threat Trump poses, it’s important to stay vigilant.

            But I genuinely believe we’ve got this. Trump will never be in the White House again.

            And early voting data actually looks terrific for Harris. Early turnout in Democratic-leaning areas all over the country is unprecedented.

            • Funderpants
              1•2 minutes ago

              I actually forgot all about that red wave play until you brought it back up it honestly helps a bit.

  • Snailpope
    10•3 hours ago

    I’ve been wondering this for a while, wouldn’t you want your candidate to poll poorly so more people who otherwise wouldn’t vote and also prefer your candidate go out and vote? Wouldn’t higher polling numbers cause people to rest assured their candidate will win and then not worry about voting? Obviously polls mean nothing, go out and vote

    • @[email protected]
      15•2 hours ago

      They want to invent higher polling numbers so that when/if Trump loses, they can point at the polls as proof the election is rigged against him.

      • Snailpope
        1•24 minutes ago

        Good point, I didn’t think about that

        • @[email protected]
          1•10 minutes ago

          Another thing is that people like to be on a winning team. People will avoid voting for someone they expect to lose. It’s not going to affect the bulk of people, but anything that reduces low turnout voters actually voting is a win for the other side.

    • @givesomefucksEnglish
      8•3 hours ago

      Human variation…

      You’re assuming everyone thinks like you, but they don’t.

      Some just like to be “winners”.

      They wouldn’t want to vote for trump if he loses, but if they think he’ll win they’ll jump on the bandwagon and vote.

      • Snailpope
        1•23 minutes ago

        You make a good point

        • @givesomefucksEnglish
          1•11 minutes ago

          Yeah, there’s fundamental brain differences that allow someone with literally a few minutes of training to predict political leaning like >70% (maybe it was even >80%) of the time from nothing but a brain scan…

          Which might not sound that high, but it’s fucking huge.

          It’s why the things that motivate conservatives (fear of the unknown) isn’t what motivates progressives (empathy and solid plans for the future).

          Republicans know their voters, they give them what they want: a Boogeyman to label as the enemy.

          Dems however keep ignoring their base because “who else will they vote for?” and trying to court Republican voters using strategies that either piss of the base (being pro border wall) or just not be effective on conservative voters (talking about how trump will hurt others).

          If you understand basic sociology/psychology, it’s clearly the wrong path for the Dem party. Unfortunately the DNC only prioritizes how much donations someone can bring in when picking people for DNC leadership positions. And the people who prioritize money, rarely go into either sociology or psychology.

          It legitimately shouldn’t be this hard to beat fucking trump

          The unelected people in charge of the only other option just don’t know what the fuck they’re doing. They just keep appealing to the wealthy to increase their donation amount because it’s literally the only metric people are judged on at the DNC.

          We desperately need to fix things before 2028, but if Kamala wins she appoints the head of the DNC, and if she loses Biden’s pick stays.