Now that we have final numbers. It appears that Harris had all the white & black support she needed for an EC victory. But Trump outright flipping Latino men and making huge gains with Latino women seems to have made all the difference.
What do you think?
First image is 2024, second is 2020.
After Donald Trump called every stripe of Latino, rapists and murderers, publicly, often and loudly, More Latinos voted for Donald Trump in this past election than have ever voted for any Republican candidate in any American election ever. Spin it any way you like.
I used to joke that America is a terrible place, full of narcisists, liars, and assholes.
Trump isn’t the cause of this. He’s just exposed how much those jokes are based on reality, and are no longer jokes.
He’s brought to the forefront our worst qualities, and confirmed the fact that no matter how much progress America has made, we’re all still just a bunch of racists and assholes. And this time it’s not a joke. It’s confirmed.
It appears that’s what won him the election. Yes turnout was down, but the demo percentages from 2020 to 2024 are not that much different outside of Latino voters.
And I must ask? How did Trump pull this off? And would Kamala have won without the Latino rightward shift?
Donald Trump doubled (+100%) the black vote he received in 2020. Across the board minorities saw change in putting Trump back in the big seat, as apposed to the disaster he will bring to them, and their families. People went through the pandemic, only to be hit with what’s felt like the largest peacetime inflation, which was not handled by the Biden administration. Normal people don’t care about economic numbers when their paying 30-50% more for milk, eggs, bread, and rent. When faced with more of the same with no real enumerated plan to get better, and back patting, they voted for different, come what may. You know which minority group didn’t break right, Jews (+5% 3.5% being the margin of error).
Trump gained 2% of black men, and lost 2% of black women. He made virtually no gains with black voters.
He gained literally 1% of them. I don’t know where this narrative of trump making massive gains with black people is coming from. All the data suggest at best, a very small gain from 2020 compared to the enormous gains he received with Latinos.
It appears that’s what won him the election
There’s hundreds of “what if” imagined scenario’s that would end up with a different result.
White Dude for Harris here. I am sad face
I think white men and white women bear more of the blame here purely by population size.
With how thin our election margins are, I wonder if literally just misogynists can swing the election. Would 1 in 100 Americans refuse to vote for a woman for president? I think maybe yes.
It’s hard to separate out the factors. Would a man have also struggled with a campaign starting so late (and doing so poorly in a previous primary). Would a white women? How can we separate out the influence of race, sex and the less than ideal running circumstances.
Given who she is, and running when she had to, she actually did pretty damn well.
Tbh looking for blame beyond Biden seems pointless to me. She has every sign of having been able to win over more people had she been prepped as the nominee from the start…
Agreed. Despite all the nuances (which are important, too)… Judging by this table, the biggest total blame is on white men, followed by white women and latino men, though there aren’t that many of them. But I feel i need to say this doesn’t have anything to do with ethnicity. You could also make a chart of city vs rural areas or several other factors and you’d probably also find interesting correlations and shifts in opinion.
The fact that any group aside from white men voted for trumpism is the issue. The disconnect was the complicit main stream media sane washing the craziness. They put racism/homophobia/fascism on the same level as Harris’ policies.
Idk, white folks voting for Trump is an issue if you ask me, a white guy. Too many white folks sane washing his shit. Morning Joe went from “he’s a fascist” to “let’s put out differences aside”. Other whities need to realize this is a grift that will likely kill your own.
I object!
White men voting for trumpism is also the issue.
“Are we out of touch with our core voters?”
“No, it’s the voters who are wrong”.
This will probably be how the Democrats regroup after the loss.
Need some titles on those columns. I’m guessing red/blue are the usual party colors, but what is the 3rd?
The biggest factor really is disengagement. There where millions who where involved in 2020 that just skipped out this time.
3rd is the percentage of the vote amongst all demographics.
Why are columns 1 & 2 shifter between the two images? Makes comparison harder.
The winner is always on the left. But yeah I get it.
The 3rd column might be the relative share of citizens or registered voters.
To actually answer the post title you’d have to go state by state in the swing states to see if she could flip enough of them to make a difference. I suspect the bigger problem is still lack of turnout rather than any specific demographic.
Only 4% of Latino men shifted. That chart says Latino men were 5% of the total vote. Harris needed more than another .02%
The 1st and 2nd columns swap between the elections.
I think you’re getting confused by the column placement. This appears to be a 19 point shift towards Trump which seems substantial.
Quiet you, it has to be our fault. There’s just no way he got someone with satellite network access to fuck with the numbers while everyone got distracted by an unusually large number of bomb threats specifically in the swing states.
It is also crazy that I lived long enough to see more Latino men vote Republican than white women 😂
Do some rough math say there are 200,000,000 total eligible voters.
2024 would have 12,000,000 male Latino voters 2020 would have 10,000,000 based on the 3rd column
Even if 100% went left to right at most you have a 12M shift.
That shift though in absolute numbers was far less than that though based on the R/D split, so not a tremendous impact over all.
There was just a lot less people showing up over all for any reason.
I don’t think this is what you intended OP but we should be careful not to blame voters here. Trump and his enablers are to blame for what he does, not voters.
That said, this is interesting. The shift to Trump among most communities was tiny, which could explain why most people were so surprised by this outcome. But why did Latinos shift to the right so much? That’s what I’d like to know.
The shift in the other category was also huge. Are those mostly Asian voters?
I’m not blaming anyone, I’m just pointing out the actual data and asking how & why? For example,
White turnout increased this election, but trump lost some white men & women support again like he did in 2020. And it appears Harris did bettter with white women than Obama, Hillary or Biden. The white vote didn’t change that much.
Black turnout was slightly down, and Trump was able to make a small 2% gain from black men, which isn’t much considering they made up 5% of the electorate this election.
As for the “other” demo. It’s every other ethnicity, but none of them are really big enough to have really big impact unless a specific state has a very large percentage of them and they all go overwhelmingly one way.
So I’m just saying, the only big outlier I see is the Latino vote. Which shifted HUGE for trump, and it appears that’s what won him the election. And I’m asking is that true? And if so, why? Compared to other demos.
I prefer to blame stupid racist people instead of ethnic groups.
I don’t think anyone shifted right. They just didn’t want whatever it was that Harris was selling.
dude, if they voted right, they shifted right, that’s what the word shifted means
Ummm, yes they did. Latino male turnout went up 1%. More of them voted this election than 2020. Which means they shifted right.
Non sequitur, there are many analyses of the party change and they don’t all boil down to left vs right.
