Since some times now the AI bubble is growing and its consequences with it, flash storage price increase, electricity went wild in some places, GPU… Don’t need to say anything sadly… NVIDIA became the most valuable company exceeding 4T

So when all of this will go crazy and grow to the burst? When does prices will go down and speculators rushing out of it?

Open question feel free to explain the wider you can, I’m not a financial so I’m really interested in some analysis of the situation :)

  • very_well_lostEnglish
    1·
    2 days ago

    I really don’t wanna sound like a dick, but did you actually read that article? It basically just concludes that there’s no consensus on whether or not LLMs are exhibiting emergent behaviors — only that they’re very difficult to predict. Funny enough, it even spends half the article discussing the exact paper I shared above.

    One thing it doesn’t discuss but that I also think needs to be brought up is that even if a model shows emergent behavior at one level of scale, that’s no guarantee that further emergence effects will continue to ‘unlock’ at higher scales. So yeah, it’s definitely worth doing more research on… but the idea that LLMs might have emergent behaviors and that they might get even more emergent at scale should be enough to justify some expensive research grants, but not a trillion dollar industry.

    • zd9
      1·
      2 days ago

      Funny enough, it even spends half the article discussing the exact paper I shared above.

      That’s why I shared it. It covers the general viewpoints and presents evidence for each. It’s not a well established area so researchers can claim various things based on their specific metrics and definitions. Still blows my mind overall how far this has come in such a short time.

      One thing it doesn’t discuss but that I also think needs to be brought up is that even if a model shows emergent behavior at one level of scale, that’s no guarantee that further emergence effects will continue to ‘unlock’ at higher scales.

      I don’t think anyone has claimed that explicitly (I haven’t).

      Bigger picture is that LLMs are still not perfectly understood and because of that there’s a lot of big claims from salespeople that want to sell their product. Also as of last year (which is the last time I did a dive on AGI), there were many that didn’t believe that simply scaling LLMs is the way to AGI (btw you should look up the prevailing proposals for how to reach AGI). That doesn’t mean there isn’t a ton of use for LLMs + application-specific engineering in the meantime, because that’s already shown to be true. This is where companies are making bank, not in the fundamental research level.