While election almost certain to be decided by swing states, pollsters explain why growth in national polls is meaningful
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Doesn’t matter. Go vote. Complacency gave the orange toddler his first term. Just sayin.
Don’t trust polls. Vote.
oh man I remember how hilary was going to win by such a large margin in those polls.
kamala harris isn’t hillary, though. I heard a recording of myself from like 2005 and a someone was saying “yeah hillary clinton can unite people” and I said “…against her” and I barely cared about politics back then.
Except Professor Alan Licthman predicted Hillary would lose then and has predicted a Kamala Harris win. He actually uses a scientific method for his predictions.
Many of the keys are subject to arbitrary interpretation; Nate Silver criticized his process and arguably has a better probability model with more consistent accuracy across thousands of races somewhere around 90%. Key 2 was given to Biden despite the writing on the wall that 2/3 of Democrats wanted a contest both before and after the primaries. Key 3 Incumbency these days is more of a liability with both candidates distancing themselves. Key 9 Scandals have lost a lot of meaning in the Trump era.
Should be noted that he gave a full-throated endorsement of Hillary Clinton… only to predict she’d lose. The thing is, he had originally referenced in two different publications ahead of that prediction that she would specifically lose the popular vote. She didn’t. He then changed his model.
Also I’m not a fan of this guy because he belittled with insults those who called for Biden to step down… Despite not giving a prediction on Biden at the time.
Polls use scientific methods too, that doesn’t mean they aren’t wildly incorrect from time to time.
Harris doesn’t suck though. People actually like her.
It only matters in the swing states. The ones where they’re trying to purge the voter registrations, sometimes successfully. The system is broken.
Down ballot matters everywhere.
That’s correct. The polls are still very close where it counts.
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/09/28/us/politics/harris-trump-poll-michigan-wisconsin.html
The Republican campaign strategy: “cheat to win, win to cheat.”
“There’s growing evidence to support a surprising possibility: [Trump’s] once formidable advantage in the electoral college is not as ironclad as many presumed. Instead, it might be shrinking,” Cohn argued.
I’m in a red state. I’m in a neighborhood with a lot of of retired Republicans. I don’t see a single Trump sign, but there is a growing count of Harris signs, including “Republicans for Harris.” ymmv
As a non-american this scares me.
What the fuck does Trump have to offer to the average citizen? He is basing his campaign on
- tax cuts for the extra rich
- iMmIgRaNtS (who Harris wants to stop anyways)
- licking the ass of Putin and Nethanyau
Is that like rubber bands, it’s the same amount only stretched? Like we changed the scales on the graph to make it look bigger.
Is it really normal to write like that headline in English? Because to me it sounds stupid.
Seems increases would be the “normal” word to use.Stretching a lead is a sports term. Most commonly in racing. Sports metaphors are common in politics.
I never heard it, and it still sounds stupid IMO.
Semantics but I mean it does actually indicate more people polling for her instead of Turnip so it’s not stretching in that sense.
I think they use that word because in American politics things are so polarized that it really feels like any gain really does seem like stretching the tiny group of people that can be won over like a rubber band.
i agree but the title would become :
“Harrisstretchesincreases lead over Trump in what could be significant increase”
… so then you have twice this same word in the title, which doesn’t sound so good.Yes I see, I still find it weird to call it “stretches”.
The synonyms “Ben Hur Horse Race” mention would of course be better.builds amasses grows
Yes, any of those 3 synonyms would fit.
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MBFC: Left-Center - Credibility: Medium - Factual Reporting: Mixed - United Kingdom
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https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2024/sep/28/harris-stretches-lead-over-trump
