Every poll is a lie.
Vote.
As an Australian I hope HarrisWalz wins because trumpet is a potential threat to other countries and not all of you americans are piece of shit bigots
Actually, most of us are not. But that silly Electoral College we have…makes it so that Democrats have to win by huge margins just to break even on that and on things like representation in the House.
not all of you americans are piece of shit bigots
Australia’s kindest affirmation.
Thanks. I may be garbage, trash, or cancer depending on the situation, but I do try to not be a bigot. I’m also thankful it isn’t very hard.
Aww, thank you bogginfriend
Tbh, a Trump presidency just presents too much fuckery. I don’t even really like Kamala, but I’m more comfortable with what the US looks like after a term with her than with what Trump put forth.
This is a vote in avoiding a very obvious detriment to our country.
Both Hilary Clinton and Elon Musk will be so mad
FYI, if you see one outlier poll, ignore it. It doesn’t mean anything.
Trust the aggregate and realize there is a margin of error. If you vote, you will be the margin of error.
All the vote predictions are inching to a 50 50 split. And pollsters are using AI to simulate real people and using that in their models.
I’m curious if the split will actually be this close, but everything screams that the models are not right.
And then the moment you see some smaller pollsters who actually did the legwork, you see deviation from the 50 50 split.
But still… The call to vote is excellent, cause last time around some states where decided by less than 15K votes.
I’ve yet to get a clear answer on how they correct for the fact that no one answers the phone or wastes time talking to pollsters for free. I keep reading that " they take it into account" but not the methods used.
Agreed.
Ultimately, polls are simply unable to account for the demographic of “doesn’t participate in advance polling”, and Anthony they attempt to do to account for that glaring weakness is guesswork.
I have yet to meet a Trump supporter who is a real person. I’m convinced they’re brain worms ina meat suit
Weird because the last time I looked at fivethirtyeight’s simulated election outcomes based on polling data it was 51:48 Trumps favor and now its 52 for Trump
Interestingly, that site is owned by ESPN and at some point in time it was archived by ABC. Why it was put to use for this is strange.
It’s been a polling aggregate since at least before the 2016 election. There is also 270towin which showed a clear Trump victory in their No-Tossup-Polling map until a few days ago, now it shows a tossup because PA polled so evenly.
Then there is betting odds for the US Presidential election, all of which favor Trump by a landslide:
Keep in mind that the more wrong these betting odds are, the more money they will lose, so there is monetary incentive for them to be unbiased.
I’m going to be real with you all. I’m scared of whats about to happen. The only way I would predict a Harris victory is if a huge wave of undecided voters appeared who are outside of the polling target audience. E.G. Generation Z, the elderly who rely on Medicaid, Disabled or Impaired, Hispanics, and others en masse.
I sincerely hope to God that’s true, America deserves better than the oligarchy trash taking over it. The real fight begins after this election, the Supreme Court needs an overhaul and the electoral college needs to go
TBH, I feel like there’s an oligarchy controlling both parties. I voted for Harris, but I think I just voted for the less bat-shit crazy side. The billionaires are still going to get richer, corporations will continue to consolidate, middle-class will keep dwindling, and common people will keep getting poorer and have less say.
Dems win in areas with greater populations, which is why they have to listen to the voters. You’re right though, but tbh it’s a balancing act. I am the type to believe in “healthy” corporations, so there’s that. Uncontrolled and unregulated entities will always seek to centralize power and resources, doesn’t matter what type they are
Latest Selzer poll, regarded by pollsters as the gold standard, shows Harris +3% over Trump. An earlier assessment gave a scale of what various Trump leads over Harris might mean - if he led her by 11% it would predict a decisive victory for him, with lesser leads meaning not quite as strong a victory, down to a Trump lead of only 3% predicting a strong showing for Harris. Harris leading Trump is literally off that scale and predicts a Harris landslide.
Are you talking about nationally, the recent Iowa poll, or something else? Because Trump has never won the national popular vote but still made his way into office
Looks like the Iowa poll, as in of Harris had a real lead on Iowa of all places, there’s no chance for him in swing states.
However there’s just no way, in anyone’s fever dream, that Iowa would go for Harris, so we have to assume there’s some freak anomaly rather than anytime to count on or predict how things are going.
If I understand correctly, they haven’t been wrong before, so…. This would be a first if you’re saying it’s inaccurate.
DON’T BUY IT. VOTE.
Possibly what you mean is don’t use this news as an excuse for lazy complacency.
Yeah, that’s what they said.
No they said “don’t buy it” which traditionally means “it’s not true”.
In case anyone is overconfident and thinks them or their family/friends don’t need to vote:
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2024-election-forecast/
I would bet $100 there’s not a single person reading these comments that feels complacent.
Celebrate the poll then vote 💙
Let it motivate you to go vote. You are not alone, even if you live in a deeply red area.
Every person who votes helps tell the story that the majority of this country rejects a crazy person leading our country.
Living in a red state this is how I thought of it, even if my vote is wasted at least maybe the world can see a majority (even if it’s slight) of Americans voted against trump numerically even if he wins.
there was a televised discussion of a poll this morning projecting 260s for both sides. if neither side wins decisively, guess who gets to choose the winner. a little bitty bible thumping trump loving nearsighted nitwit named mike.
Fucking EC screwing us over yet again.
How is a third party winning any EC delegates?
nobody said anything about any 3rd party wins. its basicly about the women vs men and how equal or not the numbers are. a middle split can keep both sides from hitting the magic 270. and if that happens the winner is decided by a congressional consensus.
Ah, in my mind there was an odd number of EC electors so an even split wasn’t possible without 3rd party electors.
Are there any early polls that show numbers of previous Trump voters picking Harris this time or previous Clinton/Biden voters going for Trump?
there’s that one poll showing harris took the lead in iowa of all places, which is insane because of how red the state is
You’d think they’d be looking at their neighbor to the north and think “why can’t we do that?”
Awesome to see ! Let women come out of 18th century mindset and be who they want to support.
They’re coming out of a 20th century mindset, which is mind boggling.
Maybe he should do another speech where he talks about shooting people, throwing people in jail and about how much a pile of shit this country is. That seems to be working well for him, gaining him some votes. Maybe he should dig deeper into the racism and xenophobia, it’s what got him his highest numbers in the poles, right?
pretty sure at this point he’s not counting on votes to get him in the white house, but violence
According to conservative relatives there was no coup, only bad players.
I’m so sick of living in a malignant narcissist’s alternative reality. Can we go back to a time where half of us don’t play along with and encourage the delusions of mental illness? Pretty please?
Can we go back to a time where half of us don’t play along with and encourage the delusions of mental illness? Pretty please?
Uh, that’s been America forever. Ever notice that most of these people believe that there’s a magical man in the sky telling them what to do? They’re talking about getting physically attacked by literal demons in their sleep today, but they’ve been saying that for decades.
Just look at this shit: https://archive.org/details/TheVistaGroup-PaganInvasion1
We will as soon as the opportunistic orange coattail riders finally realize he’s bad for them and throw him under the bus.
Hopefully the current president won’t be as pathetic as the one who was in the Whitehouse the last time the fascists tried to overthrow the government.
shenanigans
by hooligans
You would think the Poles wouldn’t like him that much
Actually there’s a very ignorant type of American for which this approach works quite well.
He is scared and coming across like a bitter asshole. The mic deep throating would have been arguably “funny” but the whole mood was sour because all he was really doing was bitching and whining about them not setting up his mic properly. Surely even Trump voters must wonder how he could manage an actual problem if he turns into an absolute manbaby at the most minor of hiccups
Surely even Trump voters must wonder
I’m gonna stop you right there.
Yeah good point
This got a chuckle out of me! One of the best responses I’ve read this morning.
Remember when saluting with a coffee in your hand would make the national news because it lacked decorum?
A TAN SUIT?! Good heavens how uncouth
Don’t forget the colossally catastrophic fist-bump with his wife. That was quite the national embarrassment as we all can remember.
Do you remember that time Biden rode a bike? With a helmet of all things? So weak. Not like that Putin fellow who rides HORSES without a helmet OR EVEN A SHIRT. So stronk. Much manly.
Mic deep throating is funny on late night comedy TV.
Simulating oral sex live in front of children is not.
That was just bizzare.
Can you think of the leader of any other country where that would slide? I mean, not even Boris would have been that crass. Even keeping it within the States, is there a past president who would have?
It really made me think of elderly flashers, who act that way because they have degenerative neurological disorders associated with age.
I mean, technically there is a past president who would have, but I know that’s not what you mean
If you are referring to Clinton, he was so private that he lied to Congress so as to not have to say it in public.
So no, there is no past president, in the US or any country in the world, that simulated oral sex in public. Trump did it in front of his own 17 year old grand daughter.
And two days later, not a peep about it from anyone in the press.
The past President in question was Trump.
You’re overthinking it. I was referring to Trump himself, because at the moment he is a past president, and he would have done this because, well, he just did it. It was just an attempt at humor based on the fact that Trump himself is technically in the “former president” category and not some deeper dig at Clinton.
Its completely unacceptable from a presidential candidate.
I’ve made this comment before just above this one but I’m going to say it again. You want to know something I’ve never seen a drag queen do once even at a drag show…
Oh I’ve definitely seen it a bunch, but only at shows advertised for adults. Usually at bars, where no one is under 21.
You know what I’ve never seen a drag queen do…
Yeah I mean let’s not resort to pearl clutching. Look at the guy in the replies doing the “groomer” routine and ask if you want to be that guy.
It’s just a joke, the kids who were in the audience (and probably shouldn’t have been) will be fine.
There are many things to insult Trump for, no need for this ridiculous Puritanism. Personally the overt racism bothers me a lot more than a blow job joke that a kid would probably not even get
Republicans talked about Michelle Obama for a week because she wore a dress that bared her arms.
You win by addressing issues that are important to the voters. It’s why Fox didn’t cover Trump’s simulated oral sex. They know that’s what’s important to their viewers.
Legalize Marijuana, vote for Harris!
Sounds like your FL ballot is the same as mine.
Ohio recently legalized cannabis but keeps voting for Trump.
