My gut says Trump is going to win. And I think the voter intimidation, fraud, right-wing takeover of election boards and volunteers, legislation and laws, republican rapid-response lawyers and staff ready to bring multiple suits, and SCOTUS already making a decision to anoint themselves as who determines the winner of the race is what locks it.
Polls are basically a coin flip before you figure in the above, because you can’t model that in a poll. Polls assume that voters that intend to vote will vote and can vote, their vote will be counted, the results will be accurately counted, the results will be accurately reported, and the results will be certified.
Since none of that is secure, there is, in my opinion, a ~3% Trump advantage in battleground states. If I’m right, that basically seals it.
Your gut is wrong. Every election since Rowe has been overturned has skewed HEAVILY in favor of pro-Democrat tickets and issues. I have no idea where you got this invisible percentage from 🤣
That any candidate running against Trump could possibly be a close race really is a knife to my faith-in-humanity’s liver, and that fucker’s been in critical condition since before Trump. What the fuck is wrong with us? We’ve already seen this geriatric Hitler wanna-be in action once already, and just about half of the voters looked at that dumpster fire and decided they want more?
He could be running against a literal cockroach, and that roach should win in a landslide because it isn’t god-damned Trump.
Propaganda is a helluva drug.
And Americans are the most propagandized people on Earth.
FFS, who would willingly listen to FOX News or Clear Channel Radio all day long? Yet people do.
The option to burn it down is attractive when a system is perceived as not being helpful. Campaigning that you can fix it with a couple small tweaks is unattractive.
Obama handed him such a healthy economy that survived many of his dumbass attempts at fucking it up. Imagine if we’d had a smart person on it. Ugh.
And then immediately tried to take credit for the healthy economy, totally fucked up every attempt at a covid response which literally tanked the economy and every single dipshit blames it all on Biden.
Why is it the last 2 Dems who took office seemed to inherit an absolute economic shit show from the previous repub …
If you take credit for every good metric and blame all of the bad metrics on your predecessor, it makes me a little suspicious about the motives. They all do it, as long as I can remember.
"The prevailing sentiment was we’re all in on Pennsylvania. And if we win Pennsylvania, we’re automatically winning Michigan and Wisconsin — but there’s nothing automatic about winning Michigan,”
There’s nothing automatic about winning anything you fucking overcooked rump roasts… What is wrong with these people?
What is wrong with these people?
If they lose, centrists get all the republican policy they want and get to blame the left for it.
Indeed. With the most electoral votes in the nation, both parties should be battling hard to win California.
California has the highest raw numbers of Trump supporters, but there’s no point in him coming here. They are still a tiny minority. Local level politicians made it so that everyone runs “independent” at the local and state level because they figured out that we won’t vote for a Republican, outside of Orange County, San Bernardino County, and Eastern San Diego County.
Oh, I thought the other guy said there’s nothing automatic about winning anything.
Wonder why.
Definitely voting for trump.
I know you’re a troll at heart. But Trump is unkind, untruthful, unqualified, and unhealthy. He doesn’t want to be president, he wants to be the boss. He is an unscrupulous grifter, all he’s ever done is sell. Steaks, real estate, golden shoes, golden watches, very likely state secrets, definitely political favors. He is an unrepentant rapist, and misogynist. He is a phony Christian. He is a mercenary, power hungry, counterpunching, farce artist. There is absolutely no pragmatic reason to vote for him unless he knows you personally, and even then, it’s a real coin toss.
10hr old account
lol
What policies are you a fan of?
I’ll say it the same way democrats say why they’re not voting for him.
He’s not Kamala
What’s better about his policies that you think are better than Harris’s?
crickets
They don’t have an answer.
The rapist and convicted felon?
Bahahahaha
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Removed, civility.
Voting for Trump is an act of incivility.
Pretty sure that’s his brand identity. ;)
I have been saying ever since last year that Michigan is gonna be red this season and it’s gonna be an election day “surprise” just like with Clinton because surprise surprise the polls and primary predictions were off by a full +5%.
Why in the actual f**** would the region most known for an American Arab population with direct family ties to Gaza and especially Lebanon (every since the 70s) willingly vote for Harris after literally getting to see Biden’s governemnt kill their family members in real time over the course of a year. It is the HQ of the uncommitted movement which was refused any sort of demand for change on Gaza/Israel policy during the DNC rally.
Forget utilitarianism, they didn’t even vote for Hillary because of her antics as Secretary of State under Obama. I’m pretty sure genocide is not a smaller issue.
And that’s just Detroit by itself. Ann Arbor was just a constant 9 months of student protests with police arrests on Umich which is the so called liberal capital campus of the USA.
Even all this UAW and Union shilling isn’t worth jack shit, most of those workers are from Detroit and will happily ignore party leader voting recommendations. It has even been an old recurring joke that every candidate passing though goes directly to one of the big 3 Auto OEMs to get a monkey crowd of factory workers for PR.
Harris can still win without Michigan, but they have already decided that there is no need to focus on the uncommitted vote because they believe they don’t need it, or are willing to actually lose over it.
Hilariously, I do think Whitmer and the state level democrats will do just fine.
They saw the Trump government do the same + Trump recognizing Jerusalem as the sole capital of Israel as well. Not to mention Trump is extremely pro Israel too.
Of course, I never underestimate the stupidity of American right wing voters, so yeah I wouldn’t be surprised if Michigan turns red too.
They aren’t voting for Trump, though. The Muslim-American voterbase is largely moving to Jill Stein, Cornel West, and Claudia De La Crúz. It isn’t due to stupidity, it’s because they won’t vote for genocide of Muslims, many of whom have family in Palestine, Lebanon, Iran, etc. The Democrats refusing to acknowledge this could legitimately cost Harris the election.
Those people ARE a vote for trump. This is critical to understand.
They aren’t, less than 10% of Muslim-Americans are voting for Trump.
Voting for a 3rd party candidate in the presidential election, especially this one, when they’ve all but disappeared until it was time ago start running again is a dictionary definition of “due to stupidity”.
This is just veiled racism, Muslim-Americans are majority polling in favor of third parties, while non-Muslim Americans are not. Rather than believing it’s due to not wanting to support genocide, you take the “Muslim-Americans are stupid” route.
No it’s simple game theory for first past the post. You’re not very smart are you?
When someone responds to the majority of Muslim-Americans voting for Stein, Claudia De La Crúz, etc, with “they’re stupid,” when other groups are more in favor of Harris, this is racism. Plain and simple. The actual answer is a refusal to vote for genocide of Muslims globally, many Muslim-Americans have friends or relatives in Palestine, Lebanon, Yemen, Syria, or Iran, which Israel is targeting. Thinking that it’s because Muslim-Americans are stupid is racist.
I’ll take that action. $500 says you’re wrong. D+4
Maybe if you didn’t alienate the largest Arab population in the country by insisting on actively participating in the Israeli genocide, Michigan wouldn’t be so fucking close! 🤬
Nah. That’s not it.
What do you think it is, then? You think people there are labbing up the GOP bullshit?
I’d say that alienating a shitload of potential voters would be pretty damn significant regardless.
Far more people than required to sway a close election are opposed to genocide and the US participation in same
If that group would rather burn down their own lives by getting Trump elected to prove an idiotic point, more power to 'em I guess. The population numbers still don’t swing the election though.
I’m not advocating for people to vote for Trump or not vote. I’m 100% against both of those things.
Which is exactly why I consider it a bad thing when the only realistic alternative are snatching defeat from the jaws of victory by alienating people.
That they’re doing so by not just propping up, but actually HELPING a genocidal apartheid regime that wants them to lose is just as stupid as it’s morally repugnant.
They absolutely do
Polls:
Quotes
In Pennsylvania, 34% of respondents said they would be more likely to vote for the Democratic nominee if the nominee vowed to withhold weapons to Israel, compared to 7% who said they would be less likely. The rest said it would make no difference. In Arizona, 35% said they’d be more likely, while 5% would be less likely. And in Georgia, 39% said they’d be more likely, also compared to 5% who would be less likely.
- New Poll Suggests Gaza Ceasefire and Arms Embargo Would Help Dems with Swing State Voters (Full YouGov Report)
Quotes
Quotes
Quotes
Majorities of Democrats (67%) and Independents (55%) believe the US should either end support for Israel’s war effort or make that support conditional on a ceasefire. Only 8% of Democrats but 42% of Republicans think the US must support Israel unconditionally.
Republicans and Independents most often point to immigration as one of Biden’s top foreign policy failures. Democrats most often select the US response to the war in Gaza.
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You realize all these links you keep posting are months old, right?
You realize that anti genocide sentiment has only INCREASED in the intervening time, right?
Your data is outdated. Your polls are wrong is my point. Have fun continuing with your singular thought though.
Democrats would rather hand victory to trump than abandon support for genocide.
I like how Netanyahu being practically an open Trump supporter doesn’t spring to your mind as having anything to do with this.
I hate how Democrats do everything he wants anyway.
You don’t.
That’s not how that works.
Brilliant non-rebuttal. I know that Democrats are pathologically incapable of accepting this, but if you want people to vote for you, you need to get their support.
You are not entitled to support all the genocide you want without losing voters.
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