Yes, but the audience score is at 80%.
I’m going all in on the potential straight.
Risk is probability times consequence. Focusing on the odds without considering the second half of the equation is stupid.
Don’t give me hope
Odds are low, but not zero. Still a bit of a nothingburger now that we’ve been able to successfully land probes on asteroids to sample their contents (and even send back video similar to images taken by Mars rovers). Strap a small thermonuclear warhead to an unmanned probe and redirect its trajectory - not a simple matter but entirely feasible.
Don’t even need a warhead. The Double Asteroid Redirect Test (DART) just threw the probe itself at an asteroid hard enough to affect its orbit.
Wtf, no, the way to deflect an asteroid is to send something near it while it’s far away. Blowing it up just risks another smaller asteroid hitting us. Small changes in direction while incredibly fast away will change its path enough to be safe.
Unmanned? Nah, lets just assemble a team of oil drillers and send them up there like space cowboys.
It’ll be easier to teach drillers to fly shuttles than it would be to teach astronauts how to dig a hole.
Wouldn’t it be easier to train astronauts to drill?
Nah, you see this mission needs someone real smart. And when someone talks about smart people in smart professions, do you think about astronauts? No of course not. (Unless they are really really old astronauts, like geriatric, then yes.) instead you think about rough necks. That’s right, you think of guys who drill holes in the ground.
Is it wrong to hope it hits us?
Yeah, because at best it just splashes in the ocean, worst it hits a city and causes mass suffering as thousands die from the impact and fallout. It’s not going to end any suffering
Yes, because it’s not going to be nearly as catastrophic as it sounds. What we need is a real world ender.
Is it wrong to hope it hits the specific city I live in? 😅
Sometimes hope is all we’ve got.
Some examples of very enjoyable related media that are not Don’t Look Up include The Last Policeman book trilogy and the Netflix animated series Carol & the End of the World.
(There’s nothing wrong with Don’t Look Up, but it’s the only recommendation I ever see.)
With more data collected over time, the chance has already been reduced to 0.28% https://blogs.nasa.gov/planetarydefense/2025/02/20/additional-observations-continue-to-reduce-chance-of-asteroid-impact-in-2032/
Thankfully I live in the USA where we’re totally safe because we reject science! But don’t you try coming here for safety, we hate everybody else. You’ll probably just be sent to gitmo.
Just don’t look up, duh
Everyone saying “they can evacuate” clearly doesn’t remember how bad the covid response was.
There will be anti-space conspiracy theorists. The ownership class would demand people continue working until the last possible minute (and beyond). It would be politicized, because some people are unbelievably stupid, cruel, and selfish, and enough people are so stupid they’ll buy in.
Now, if we could make the meteor fall on a location occupied solely by the people who don’t believe in science…
At least “crushed by asteroid” is not contagious.
Look, it’s really simple. Just don’t look up. If we collectively ignore the problem, it won’t be a problem.
They could make a movie about that!
Also the impact risk corridor passes through states that are poorly equipped for large civil defence operations: Ethiopia and the CAR are in civil wars, Yemen is in a civil war with the majority of the country under the control of an unrecognized government, and the South Sudanese government is quite week—being at peace only for the last 5 years
Everyone saying “they can evacuate” clearly doesn’t remember how bad the covid response was.
or not paying attention to political winds welcoming the evacuees.
It would make sense to have a more cooperative world, even if cooperation involves “victims” compensating those able to protect them. Hope the US can continue to contribute tracking resources, at least.
… that’s exactly what would happen, it would land on all the people who don’t believe in science.
If this happens frequently enough the Republican Party will just vanish.
It was nice knowing yall
Well it would still have an impact energy less than that of tsar bomba, and probably just hit an ocean.
I won’t believe it’s gonna miss us until it gets to 95% likely it will hit
I see another one branded by XCOM.
I find the XCOM comparisons funny because the game actually tilts the RNG in the player’s favor and people still think it’s unfair
https://www.giantbomb.com/xcom-2/3030-49817/forums/xcom-2-is-un-fair-1792143/
I don’t think it’s unfair, it’s just that being one square away with 99% accuracy missing always feels like bullshit, regardless of whatever explanation you give.
Outside of extremely extenuating circumstances, this isn’t a worry. We already have proof-of-concept tech like DART to divert asteroids, aerospace engineers can use this to get governments to fund them even better, asteroid goes behind the sun for 3 years, asteroid diverting technology advances even further, in 2028 when the path of travel becomes more precise the chance of hitting us gets revised down to zero, and we’ve advanced our technology should anything more serious come our way in the future
yeah, we really don’t have to worry.
With the DART mission tech, we can get our hit chances into the 90 percents
Gotta pump those numbers up
Backup is that we have a team of deep sea oil drillers go up there
Why are we trying our best idea second?
@OneTwoThree @fossilesque actually we want this asteroid to hit Earth. Remove one threat from the sky. Divert to hit in a safe place. This one is safe if it hit in a remote location.
“I’m gonna go all in.”
this is my favorite poker sim
Ngl mine too. I ended up never finishing it and using it as a great poker sim. 😅
it’s definitely balanced towards giving you better hands.
I’ve pulled like 8 royal flushes out of it with less than 10 hours spent playing poker in there. I’ve never even seen a royal flush in other contexts.
It’s really chill though haha. :)
haha, that’s why I’ve put almost 10 hours into it.
i suspect most mini games start to show their problems and biases when you spend 10 hours playing then lol. like, gwent was sick, but it really was just about stacking the most strong cards intoa single deck as you could.
caravan though… that was a great damn mini game. the interactive and believable element of needing to go around and collect old world playing cards to build out your deck did a lot to extend the game into the broader world. more than that though, it’s a genuinely playable and relatively balanced game. i happened to have a lot of incomplete card decks lying around when i grew up. eventually i repurposed those into one big deck that would get split in half to play with people irl and a randomized deck. only fantasy card game I’ve ever been able to recreate and play at home without buying anything. and it even played pretty well.
Eh, I liked Far Cry 3’s poker minigame better. Or, from memory, RDR1.
Yes, the atmosphere is great. But the stacks are just so low, players give little action, and the overall game flow is glacial in RDR2.
The sad thing is that according to Scott Manley video the areas it can hit are equatorial Africa or South of India, so lot of countries will try to ignore it
Until those countries start planning a meteor re route, which if done improperly could push the impact zone anywhere.
india: nudges the asteroid a bit
china: “yo, wtf”
asteroid path now 100% chance of impact on Yellowstone
Triggering an eruption of the supervolcano, whose ash will kill most people in the US and blot out the sun for years
The millennial dream
Only if it brings down housing prices.
